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- UK Nov global goods Trade balance -£9.164 bln
- The reason it’s so quiet….
- Italy’s Q3 public deficit narrows to 1.8%
- Option expiries (updated)
- USD/JPY grinds higher to fresh day’s high
- European stocks firm…
- IMF’s to meet on Jan 16 to discuss next loan tranche to Greece
- Looks like the early USD/JPY bears got their fingers burnt…
- Slow start for EUR/USD..
- AUD/USD edging higher after earlier hiccup…
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 closes up 0.67%
- Today’s option expiries
- Button-Down Central Bank Bets It All…
- Greek recession may stretch through 2014
- Ideas corner – 9th January 2013
- ForexLive Asia Wrap: Further signs BOJ to adopt 2% inflation target
- Mizuho Sales: USD/JPY to 92 in March, 95 in June
- China’s new ‘It’ Girl (you really need to see this)
- I know Adam is waiting on the edge of his seat
- Yuan forwards the strongest in almost two months
| UK Nov global goods Trade balance -£9.164 bln Posted: 09 Jan 2013 01:31 AM PST Narrows from a revised -£9.487 bln in October, but worse than Reuters poll of -£9.05bln Non EU trade balance -£4.519 bln from a revised -£4.502 bln (expected -£ 4.2 bln) Cable largely ignoring the data off a few pips at 1.6068 |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2013 01:22 AM PST …………Must be down to Gerry’s absence, I always said he was the soothsayer, obviously the world’s a lost place without him… Lucky bugger’s got the rest of the week off, still it least the weather’s rubbish (I was asked the other day if i knew the difference between ignorance and apathy.. i said i dunno.. don’t give a damn! ) EUR/USD’s still within the Asian range, and without checking my charts i gather there’s a 50% fibo level at 1.3099 which may also be deterring a move higher and another 61.8% up just above at 1.3108. Other than that i’m not hearing a dickie bird this morning. EUR’s at 1.3085.
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| Italy’s Q3 public deficit narrows to 1.8% Posted: 09 Jan 2013 01:05 AM PST From 2.5% in Q3 2011 Jan-Sept deficit falls to 3.7% from 4.2% in the same period of 2011 All hinges now on the Q4 data published on March 1 to see if Monti’s fiscal targets will be met |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2013 12:56 AM PST For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:
EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3070 1.3100, 1.3200 USD/JPY: 86.50, 87.00, 87.10, 87.75, 88.00 GBP/USD 1.6100 AUD/JPY: 90.00 AUD/USD: 1.0400, 1.0500 AUD/NZD: 1.2585 USD/CHF: 0.9250 |
| USD/JPY grinds higher to fresh day’s high Posted: 09 Jan 2013 12:37 AM PST Up to 87.74 in recent trade on buying from Japanese accounts and sovereigns, and dragging the EUR/JPY with it to a day’s high of 114.79. The cross stuttering initially at the daily tenkan line (114.61), but now facing offers above at 114.90/00 and 115.40/50 ahead of 115.90/00(Jan2 high 115.99, 116.00 barrier) |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2013 12:07 AM PST CAC40 up 0.4%, IBEX up 0.5%, FTSEMIB up o.5%, DAX up 0.2% and FTSE up 0.1% in early trading |
| IMF’s to meet on Jan 16 to discuss next loan tranche to Greece Posted: 08 Jan 2013 11:47 PM PST According to their website.. ekathimerini reporting |
| Looks like the early USD/JPY bears got their fingers burnt… Posted: 08 Jan 2013 11:13 PM PST I know a lot of people are now looking for reasons to sell USD/JPY after the strong rally and especially after some jawboning from Japanese industrial heads who are hinting that the yen’s weakness may be complete, but there are others ( including me) who think this has a bit further to go on the topside. 2 way flows in the EUR/JPY have been ripping the USD/JPY around in Asia but the tone remains mildly bullish for now on the back of rising stocks and Japanese importers have been at work quickly snapping up offers under 87.00. Before anyone asks, it’s hard to put a target or time frame on the USD here, and a reversal could easily come if US treasuries get clumped, but i still believe ‘the trend is your friend’ and only a dip back through trend line support around 85.50 from mid Nov would make me turn bearish. Anyway that my view for what its worth. There are bids now in place from 87.00 down to 86.80 (importers) building in size ahead of 86.50 with exporters and intraday speculators offering just above at 87.50/60 (100 hour MA 87.59). Above here are further offers 87.80/00 USD’s currently sitting at 87.46 |
| Posted: 08 Jan 2013 10:50 PM PST Not much to say here…the pair being somewhat manipulated by EUR/JPY flows from both sides in a 1.3067-94 range in Asia but offers are reportedly sitting up at 1.3100/20 from UK clearers and Swiss names (SNB related?). Bids from 1.3040/60 from sovereigns, real money, sell stops below through 1.3040 ahead of stronger support at 1.3000/20 and more sell stops through 1.2980 Major data calendar is rather sparse as well with focus on the UK trades at 0930 GMT and German Industrial production at 1100 GMT. EUR/USD’s static around 1.3085 |
| AUD/USD edging higher after earlier hiccup… Posted: 08 Jan 2013 10:29 PM PST The dip under 1.0500 following weaker retail sales (low 1.0487) has still failed to break out of the ‘ball and chain’ range, and the pair’s getting some help from cross buying particularly vs the yen. The EUR/AUD’s failure to bounce so far after last week’s mauling from 1.2750 is also helping to support the AUD/USD, and keeping the current focus on the myriad of AUD/USD offers lined up ahead. sell orders nearby start at 1.0510/20 (possibly RBA related) with larger towards 1.0550 and more up at 1.0570/80. Downside bids start at 1.0480 from sovereigns, Asian and European banks with large towards 1.0450. Sell stops lie below through 1.0440 ahead of major support in the 1.0390/10 area which also houses the 100 day MA at 1.0392 AUD/JPY now has offers lined up in the 92.00/10 and 92.40/50 zones with bids from 91.20 down to 90.90. Sell stops are reported set on a break of 90.80 and again through 90.50 ahead of tenkan line support at 90.28 AUD/USD’s sitting at 1.0504 with AUD/JPY around 91.80 |
| Japan’s Nikkei 225 closes up 0.67% Posted: 08 Jan 2013 10:05 PM PST ….at 10578.57 The broader TOPIX was up 0.82% on the day closing at 879.05 |
| Posted: 08 Jan 2013 09:57 PM PST For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:
EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3200 USD/JPY: 86.50, 87.00, 87.75 AUD/JPY: 90.00 AUD/USD: 1.0400, AUD/NZD: 1.2585 |
| Button-Down Central Bank Bets It All… Posted: 08 Jan 2013 09:42 PM PST SNB’s in a fight for it’s life as it prints and sells Swiss francs to avoid it’s appreciation against the Euro, and avert the driving up of Swiss exports prices. The central bank’s portfolio of foreign assets has mushroomed to four times that of 2010, making it possibly in proportion the largest risk taker, with holdings of currencies bonds, stocks and gold amounting to about $541 bln… just short of Switzerland’s GDP. For the full WSJ story ‘Google’ the headline…
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| Greek recession may stretch through 2014 Posted: 08 Jan 2013 09:28 PM PST Morgan Stanley’s forecasting that Greece’s economy is unlikely to rebound in 2014 and may face an extra year of recession, in contrast to the EU commission’s December report and the Greek government predictions for growth next year. More…for the full story from ekathimerini
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| Ideas corner – 9th January 2013 Posted: 08 Jan 2013 09:15 PM PST Good morning all, from Europe Please post any bright ideas or comments you’d like to share with your fellow readers here… |
| ForexLive Asia Wrap: Further signs BOJ to adopt 2% inflation target Posted: 08 Jan 2013 09:00 PM PST
The activity today was again mainly in the Yen, with USD/JPY continuing its Europe/NY weakness into the early Asian morning, triggering stops below 87.00 but failing to extend any lower than 86.83. From here it steadied, trading in a range 86.85/87.10 before finding its feet (Japanese importers notable buyers) and progressing strongly higher on the back of EUR/JPY buying interest, all the way up to 87.55 before offers held it. It spent the rest of the afternoon around 87.40 until very early Europe. The Reuters article indicating the BOJ would adopt the 2% inflation goal came out pretty much after the rally was well underway. EUR/USD did not benefit to any great extent from the EUR/JPY buying, offers holding it below 1.3090. The other sharp mover on the day was the AUD/USD, which traded up to just above 1.0520 only to gap 25 points lower on the release of the poor Retail Sales and even poorer Job Vacancies data; it traded in a sideways pattern then until early Europe. |
| Mizuho Sales: USD/JPY to 92 in March, 95 in June Posted: 08 Jan 2013 08:47 PM PST Head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank says USD/JPY is to go to 92 in March and 95 in June (interview on Bloomberg TV and reported on eFX):
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| China’s new ‘It’ Girl (you really need to see this) Posted: 08 Jan 2013 08:33 PM PST I’d seen this a while ago – I’m glad the story has made the transition to the WSJ.
This is hilarious – what a legend!
A Retailer Discovers China’s New ‘It’ Girl: Grandpa (Article appears to be not gated – but if so a news search on the headline may turn up something) |
| I know Adam is waiting on the edge of his seat Posted: 08 Jan 2013 08:20 PM PST I know Adam will be waiting on the edge of his seat for the Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker to make his next speech; but hopefully this will tide him over until then: A Bold Dissenter at the Fed, Hoping His Doubts Are Wrong ps. Lacker was a voting member on the 2012 FOMC but is being replaced by Eric S. Rosengren of the Boston Fed. as part of the regular ‘rotation’ policy at the January 29/30 meeting of the Committee. |
| Yuan forwards the strongest in almost two months Posted: 08 Jan 2013 07:41 PM PST
There is increasing optimism about China’s rebound. Don’t question me on this, I don’t want to bring up the iron ore issue again (Joke… Yuan Forwards Rise to Two-Month High as Economic Rebound Seen |
and i’m not complaining as i’m having to type southpaw.
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