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Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP -0.6% qq -0.9% yy
Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP coming up at 10.00 GMT
Aussie $ Orders
Italian police arrest Monte de Paschi’s former FD Baldassarri
ECB’s Constancio says improvement in financial markets very significant but situation remains fragile
ECB Monthly Report- Strong Euro downside risk to inflation
Italian preliminary GDP Q4 -0.9% qq -2.7% yy
French Non-Farm Payrolls Q4 qq -0.2% v -0.3%
EURUSD poll follow up
1.5500 breaks on Cable
EURUSD poll time again
European equities lower after weak GDP data
Swiss buyers of Cable
Bank of Japan’s Shirakawa says monetary policy not aimed at FX rates.
EUR pairs getting slapped after French and German Q4 GDP
Ideas Corner
German Q4 GDP – Seems like traders had an inkling…
German flash estimate Q4 GDP -0.6% qq + 0.1% yy
Talk of barrier option on Cable at 1.5500
Yen Order Board

Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP -0.6% qq -0.9% yy

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 02:00 AM PST

Ouch, unsurprising given earlier data but not good and Euro rightly getting sold.

EURUSD down to 1.3340.

Well done all you 1.3350 pollsters !

Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP coming up at 10.00 GMT

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 01:48 AM PST

qq -0.4% exp v -0.1% prev
yy -0.7 % exp v -0.6 prev

Aussie $ Orders

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 01:43 AM PST

And before I get accused of neglecting other pairs here’s some AUDUSD order info:

Offers at 1.0380/85
Larger offers at 1.0400 but stop loss buying if that breaks
Bids at 1.0345 with larger ones at 1.0330

AUDUSD has been consolidating nicely over the past few days after some decent selling.

Currently at 1.0356

In my City days I ran the FX for 3 years at the Aussie bank State Bank of Victoria ( now part of CBA ) in between my spells at UBS and Credit Suisse..

I was there at the outset when AUD crosses were first being quoted interbank, and very much involved in that process so subsequently always had an interest .

I’ll try to post what I can.

Italian police arrest Monte de Paschi’s former FD Baldassarri

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 01:25 AM PST

Italian police are reported to have arrested the former head of Monte dei Paschi’s finance department who is at the centre of a fraud and bribery probe at Italy’s third largest bank

Gianluca Baldassarri left Monte dei Paschi shortly after the arrival of new chief executive Fabrizio Viola in Jan. 2012

Probably main reason weighing on EUR again

ECB’s Constancio says improvement in financial markets very significant but situation remains fragile

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 01:19 AM PST

Seems like Mr Constancio is having a few words at the moment

EURUSD lower again at 1.3390

ECB Monthly Report- Strong Euro downside risk to inflation

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 01:13 AM PST

Main headline from the latest ECB Monthly Report just out.

The stronger Euro poses a risk that inflation might undershoot the European Central Bank’s target
Recovery was expected to start later this year
Risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be seen as broadly balanced over the medium term
Upside risks relate to higher administered prices and indirect taxes, as well as higher oil prices, and downside risks stem from weaker economic activity and, more recently, the appreciation of the Euro exchange rate
Risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be seen as broadly balanced over the medium term

As usual, the ECB bulletin was virtually identical to its main policy statement after their policy meeting last Thursday

Italian preliminary GDP Q4 -0.9% qq -2.7% yy

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 01:01 AM PST

Italian GDP data worse than expected but having little impact on EUR pairs at the moment

Eurozone Q4 GDP prelim data next up at 10.00 GMT

EURUSD currently 1.3407

French Non-Farm Payrolls Q4 qq -0.2% v -0.3%

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 12:58 AM PST

Out just now

Nothing of note but posting as a matter of course.

EURUSD poll follow up

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 12:40 AM PST

Seems like most of you fancy this slide to continue and yes momentum thus far would suggest that to be a decent call, with EZ GDP surely only going to confirm what we’ve had so far.

As yesterday I’m going to be a little contrarian and plump for 1.3440 on the basis of price acttion in that we’ve seen a lot of selling so far and not really followed-through since the earlier data release.

1.5500 breaks on Cable

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 12:21 AM PST

Barrier option at 1.5500 is history

Reports of another one at 1.5485

Low posted so far 1.5495

EURUSD poll time again

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 12:14 AM PST

Ok, after yesterday’s cap at 1.3520 following the alleged ECB comments the 1.3450 takers were utlimately victorious.

So shall we have another one today ?

Let’s keep it tight again

1.3340 or 1.3440 ??

As usual, reasons welcome but not obligatory

European equities lower after weak GDP data

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 12:06 AM PST

Unsurprisingly we’re seeing the major exchanges lower on the morning so far

Dax -0.2%
CAC 40 -0.2%
FTSE -0.1 %
IBEX -0.5%
FTMIB -0.2%

Swiss buyers of Cable

Posted: 13 Feb 2013 11:55 PM PST

I’m hearing Swiss names buying decent size cable down here, possibly protecting the 1.5500 barrier I mentioned earlier

No real bounce though so if we break through get ready for a fall-out, although i’m also now hearing of another barrier option at 1.5485.

Expect stop losses below that for sure

Bank of Japan’s Shirakawa says monetary policy not aimed at FX rates.

Posted: 13 Feb 2013 11:38 PM PST

BOJ governor Shirakawa on the newswires:

Recent FX moves likely to support Japan exports
No comment on US Teasury Sec nominee’s remarks favouring strong USD
Japan’s economic recovery likely to pick up pace from middle of this year
Japan’s economy likey to improve in line with improvement in global economies
Will ensure BOJ increases balance of asset purchasing fund as scheduled
There is a growing chance that inflation will reach 1% in fiscal year 2014

Nothing much of note in these comments from the outgoing BOJ chief.

Yen little changed on the back of it.

EUR pairs getting slapped after French and German Q4 GDP

Posted: 13 Feb 2013 11:26 PM PST

So far not so good for the Euro this morning following the weaker than expected Q4 GDP prelims from France and Germany, with Italy’s to come ahead of whole Eurozone GDP data at 10.00 GMT.

EURUSD triggering stop loss selling below 1.3390 but holding at the moment with more bids lower down at 1.3370

EURJPY kicked down through bids at 125.50 but expect more buyers around 125.00