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Friday, February 15, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Eurozone Trade Balance – December + euro 11.7 billion

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 02:01 AM PST

in line with forecasts

  • November figure revised to + 13 bio v 13.7 bio
  • Seasonally adjusted exports -1.8% mm,   imports -3% mm
  • Unadjusted exports -3% yy, imports -6% yy

I don’t expect any impact though, particularly with everything else going on..

 

UK gilts extend gains after Retail Sales –

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 01:55 AM PST

Gilts were heading higher all morning but jumped by more than 10 ticks to session highs of 115.82 after the data

Pound sharply lower after poor UK Retail Sales data

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 01:48 AM PST

Well, that was a bit painful for the GBP longs….

Cable posted lows so far of 1.5470 ( 6  1/2 month lows ) from pre-data levels around 1.5530..

Talk of decent size bids on the lows but expect any rallies above 1.5500 to be sold to fill the gaps

Newswires permitting of course…

More on UK Retail Sales data- biggest fall since April 2012

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 01:42 AM PST

  • ex fuel -0.5% mm  + 0.2% yy
  • Food sales dropping sharply 1.6% on the month
  • Headline Retail Sales data biggest fall since April 2012
  • Defies  recent BRC ( British Retail Consortium ) survey

UK Retail Sales January -0.6 % mm – 0.6 % yy

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 01:30 AM PST

Ouch………

versus expectations of + 0.4 % mm and 0.8% yy

You can’t say I didn’t warn you !

Snowy January cited…

Yep and the rest…

GBPUSD 1.5480

EURGBP 0.8620

UK Retail Sales data coming up at 09.30 gmt

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 01:11 AM PST

UK retail sales data for Jan coming up at 09.30 gmt

  • mm + 0.4% exp v -0.1% prev
  • yy   + 0.8% exp v +0.3  prev
  • ex fuel mm + 0.4% exp v -0.3% prev
  • ex fuel yy + 1.4% exp v +0.1% prev

Forecasts are for this data to show an improvement in January.

Can't quite see it myself……..

 

More Draghi – Q4 GDP “worse than expected”

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 01:05 AM PST

more from his chat just now

well, he would say that of course….

EURUSD still around 1.3335

 

Draghi – LTRO repayment shows that confidence in EMU is returning but fragility remains

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 12:58 AM PST

adds that ” he can’t say all is in good order “….

Too right !

EURUSD 1.3336

EURGBP 0.8585

EURJPY 123.27

Draghi – doesn’t see deflation in EZ. Interest rates “very low indeed”

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 12:55 AM PST

More from Mr Draghi,

Still talking….

ECB President Draghi on the wires

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 12:45 AM PST

I will keep updating here

Add:

  • Exchange rate is not a policy target but is important for growth, price stability
  • ECB mandate is mid-term price stability
  • No comment on likely wording of G20 statement

EURUSD posted 1.3311 lows taking out good size bids at 1.3320

Now 1.3328

Lively enough out there for you ?

 

EURGBP lower – UK clearer notable seller

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 12:44 AM PST

UK  clearing bank notable seller after the post-Weidmann rally to 0.8633

Lows of 0.8574 so far adding to euro weakness overall

Yesterday I talked about buying this pair on the dip and we did indeed see a decent rally, but I’d be more cautious right now.

EURJPY hits 2 week lows of 123.11

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 12:26 AM PST

With USDJPY getting slapped on each rally traders are selling EURJPY again, giving EURUSD this push back down to pre-Weidmann comments lows.

This was always going to be a bumpy ride this morning and so it’s proving..

Discretion the better part of valour methinks again…

Add: Buyers reported at 123.00 ahead of 122.86 ( Dec 10th support line )

EU’s Rehn says G20 countries should focus more on reforms than short-term fiscal and monetary stimulus

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 12:18 AM PST

Seems like reform is the buzz word of  the morning…

EURUSD lower again 1.3336 posted

European equities – lower in early trading

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 12:14 AM PST

Mostly a tad lower…

  • DAX – 0.2 %
  • CAC 40 – 0.05 %
  • FTSE -  unchanged
  • IBEX  -0.24 %
  • FTIMB + 0.03 %

Cable breaches 1.5535

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 12:04 AM PST

Offers finally cleaned out

Stops kicking in

Currently 1.5547

Next offers reported at 1.5570

Add:  Ouch, that was horrible.. sharp spike to trigger stops then sell again..  1.5533 now.. high posted 1.5550

Bundesbank’s Weidmann- euro rate broadly in line with fundamentals

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 11:50 PM PST

Says he cannot say Euro is seriously overvalued…

Ambiguous… i’m checking more info…

Add:

  • Fears a politicization of exchange rates
  • Euro fx rate one factor among many in determining inflation
  • Buba won’t justify a monetary policy on one single factor
  • If euro rate appeciation reflects regained confidence in EZ then this is in line with fundamentals

 

 

GBPUSD offers at 1.5535

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 11:41 PM PST

plenty of talk out there of  decent offers around 1.5535

certainly putting a lid on it at the moment …..

ECB’s Asmussen- exchange rate policy should not distract from reforms

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 11:27 PM PST

More from Mr Asmussen…

Leaving room in his comments for a bit of alternative action methinks…..

More :

  • Important that France keeps its budget deficit under 3 % of GDP in 2013
  • France and Germany have special responsibilty to follow the stability and growth pact

News Alert : ECB’s Asmussen says currencies should be market based…

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 11:19 PM PST

talking on the radio…

Market based without fixed targets…

Keeping with the party line on that one for the moment…

EURUSD order board- offers noted at 1.3400 & 1.3420

Posted: 14 Feb 2013 11:03 PM PST

As we’ve just seen there’s a few offers out there between 1.3390-1.3400

Stop loss buying orders if we break above 1.3400

More offers in place 1.3420

Bids lining up at 1.3350 and of course on yesterday’s lows of 1.3315-20

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