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Sunday, February 17, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

China poised to grow ‘reasonably fast’ – former PBOC adviser

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 11:07 PM PST

China has had a soft landing, incomes are set to rise, the economy will grow quickly:

fundamentally, there are still basic forces, both on the demand side, supply side, so on and so forth, to push the economy to grow reasonably fast."

According to Tsinghua University economist and PBOC adviser from 2010 to 2012, Li Daokui, in a CNN interview.

This is the sort of analysis Australia bulls want to hear.

Bloomberg

Currency war talk temporarily on hold

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 11:01 PM PST

An analysis piece from Reuters:

While Japan has insisted that neither this week’s G7 or G20 currency statements required it to change policy tack in any way, anonymous briefing after the former said Tokyo was squarely being targeted.

The article is worth a read.

Lots of soothing sounds out of the G20 this weekend, but, this thing ain’t over.

Aso and Schaeuble have a chat at the G20

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 11:01 PM PST

Germany has been one of the most vocal critics of Japanese policy in raising yen depreciation issues.

Japanese finance minister Aso met with German finance minister Schaeuble on the sidelines at the G20 meeting:

Aso briefed Schaeuble on Japan's recent economic policies centering on drastic monetary easing to beat chronic deflation, the source said.
Schaeuble asked Aso to clarify the purpose of the policies …

Aso has a bit of a reputation for being unsubtle. I hope he restrained himself …

Methinks we might get some calm over yen depreciation in coming days and maybe weeks, but there’s more fighting to come.

More here (but not much more).

Australian Treasurer Swan joins the “Japan is stimulating their domestic economy” chorus

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 11:00 PM PST

Swan at the G20 meeting:

"Market-based exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policies supporting jobs and growth; that's the core of the G-20 agenda," Swan said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. "To have people artificially target their exchange rates completely repudiates that approach."

Then he falls into line:

 "The Japanese approach is one to stimulate their domestic economy. That is also good for the global economy."

Australia is a minnow on the world stage, and Japan is Australia’s 2nd largest trading partner. No wonder he toed the G20 line.

Bloomberg article, if you want to read more.

G20 Moscow meeting – final Communique

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 09:21 AM PST

Here’s a link to the final Communique from the G20 meeting:

Communiqué
Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors
Moscow, 15-16 February 2013
(PDF)

Also here: Сommunique of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, Moscow

For a summary, here’s Reuters with the key passages: TEXT-Main points of final G20 finance communique

As expected, there is no specific mention of Japan or Japanese policy. In brief, if policy is aimed at achieving results in the domestic economy then its OK. Of course, it is difficult to gauge whether domestic policies are, or are not, aimed at weakening the currency.

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