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- Better get this at the local bar
- ForexLive North American wrap: A jobs report jolt
- CFTC numbers show rising yen shorts
- USD/JPY goes on and on
- Ready for some football?
- I hate to give Goldman Sachs credit but they made a great trade
- CHF/JPY is the best performer on the week
- Time for some Friday tunes
- Why cable has been suffering
- Some respite as Europe closes
- European equity close: Pain in Spain
- To 1.37 and beyond
- Chinese sovereign wealth fund likes Europe
- JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 50.1 in Dec
- Euro screams to session high
- USD/JPY breaks through
- Fed’s Bullard says unemployment in ‘low 7s’ could end QE
- ISM manufacturing index 53.1 vs 50.7 exp
- U Mich consumer sentiment 73.8 vs 71.5 exp
- Cable drops through 1.58
| Better get this at the local bar Posted: 01 Feb 2013 05:36 PM PST The best minds in Argentina have been hard at work. |
| ForexLive North American wrap: A jobs report jolt Posted: 01 Feb 2013 01:19 PM PST
Fresh cycle highs for the yen crosses was the story again on Friday. USD/JPY was hit with a round of profit-taking after NFP, touching 91.78 but it quickly rebounded and closes the day 100 pips off the lows. The ISM report was the best since June and non-farm payrolls were better than the headlines suggest because of upward revisions to Nov and Dec. The euro trapped traders in a major whipsaw. It sank to 1.3588 after the employment report and then screamed to 1.3711. As Europe began to wind down the euro lost momentum and slipped to 1.3650. Cable repeatedly flogged, falling to 1.5699 from 1.5845 in North American trading alone. The pound fell hard through 1.5800 and then bled for the next 100 pips. Continental repatriation is the driver. Gold jumped to $1681 on NFP but Bullard’s comments killed the rally. Last at $1667. |
| CFTC numbers show rising yen shorts Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:49 PM PST The weekly data from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which is collected at the close on Tuesday. It shows speculative futures positioning.
Yen shorts growing once again after a small retracement.
The big takeaways for me are the euro and pound. Euro longs are growing but there is tremendous room for more. Along the same lines, the speculative market hasn’t even got involved in GBP shorts yet. If specs begin to pile it, cable could hit 1.50. Not the tiny positions in CHF. From that, I would say that speculators are confused and unsure what’s driving the moves. |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 11:40 AM PST Now closer to 95.00 than 90.00. It has been an incredible run but I have a hard time seeing it break 95.00 before we get a sizeable retraecment.
95.00 is also the measured target of the inverted head-and-shoulders bottom on the long-term daily chart. |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 11:19 AM PST It’s the San Francisco 49ers against the Baltimore Ravens for Superbowl XLVII. I don’t follow the NFL much but I watched the semi-finals and San Francisco looked like a much better team. |
| I hate to give Goldman Sachs credit but they made a great trade Posted: 01 Feb 2013 10:34 AM PST There is some chatter that the Vampire Squid is telling In mid-December (with EUR/USD at 1.30) they put out a call for 1.37 with a stop at 1.29. We covered it here. I always point on when Goldman is wrong but they nailed this one and deserve this victory lap. |
| CHF/JPY is the best performer on the week Posted: 01 Feb 2013 10:21 AM PST CHF/JPY has gained in six of the past seven trading day and it was easily the strongest currency this week, trailing only SEK in the G10 basket.
The JPY and CHF used to be the low-yielding brothers in the market and moved together. The EUR/CHF peg and deflation fight from the BOJ has changed that. I suspect the Swiss franc will resume its decline but it will be choppy as the SNB unwinds its enormous EUR reserves. Looking at the CHF/JPY chart, it has gained in 10 of the past 12 weeks and faces no significant resistance on the way to a test of 108.80.
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| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 10:07 AM PST I will have some charts, data and the CFTC numbers later but the market looks to be slowing down so it’s time for some music. (I promise that’s the last 80s song for awhile). |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 09:29 AM PST It’s all about the reversal of safe-haven flows. At the height of the European crisis, people were frantically looking offshore to park money. Switzerland and the UK were the preferred destinations and in the past month we have seen that trade unwind. At the same time, the UK economy is struggling.
This usually slow-moving pair has gone vertical. Some consolidation could come at any time but a straight move to 0.9100 is equally likely. |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 09:05 AM PST Another +200 pip day in EUR/JPY as it chomps through offers to a barrier at 127.00. Looks like February will be as active as January. With Europe now closed, watch out for some small retracements. |
| European equity close: Pain in Spain Posted: 01 Feb 2013 08:38 AM PST
The FTSE finished just below the cycle highs from earlier in the week and gained 1.1% on the week. Rough week for Spain which was down each day this week to lose 5.8%. The catalyst was the removal of the short selling ban. |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 08:23 AM PST
The 1.37 barrier pops to 1.3711. Offers at 1.3720/25 and a sizable barrier at 1.3750. We might hear some euro-negative jawboning from European officials on the weekend. |
| Chinese sovereign wealth fund likes Europe Posted: 01 Feb 2013 08:13 AM PST Jin Liqun, Chairman of the Board of Supervisors of the the China Investment Corp., is speaking with Bloomberg. The CIC manages a mammoth $500 billion.
Hard to believe the Chinese are lecturing Europe on socialism. |
| JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 50.1 in Dec Posted: 01 Feb 2013 08:05 AM PST I believe it’s an aggregate index but it demonstrates an improved outlook. |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:52 AM PST EUR/USD has been screaming high and now a break of the session high tripped some small stops in up to 1.3684. Fixing demand is behind the latest push which created a hefty bullish signal on the hourly chart.
EUR/GBP has been a major driver today and is nearing offers at 0.8700. |
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:29 AM PST Yen crosses screaming higher after the earlier whipsaw. Offers ahead of 92.50 limiting move. Nasty volatility in the past hour, especially in the euro crosses. |
| Fed’s Bullard says unemployment in ‘low 7s’ could end QE Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:08 AM PST
The combination of the Bullard headlines and the strong ISM have boosted the US dollar and whipsawed gold. |
| ISM manufacturing index 53.1 vs 50.7 exp Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:00 AM PST
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| U Mich consumer sentiment 73.8 vs 71.5 exp Posted: 01 Feb 2013 06:56 AM PST
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| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 06:48 AM PST Cable is at the lows of the day, falling through 1.58 and tripping stops to 1.5782.
Yesterday, I pointed to the area of resistance around last week’s highs and the 200-day moving average as a good opportunity for shorts. There is some minor support at 1.5775 but I expect cable weakness to continue. |
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