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Monday, February 4, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Eurozone Dec PPI -0.2% vs -0.2% exp

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 02:00 AM PST

  • Prior reading was -0.2%
  • The year-over-year reading also in line with expectations at +2.1%

Nothing to see here.

Jawboning and Spanish corruption hurting euro

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:50 AM PST

European politicians have become awfully predictable. After the break of 1.37 on Friday I anticipated some weekend anti-euro jawboning and Moscovici delivered.

In addition, the growing corruption scandal in Spanish politics is weighing on sentiment. Spanish 10-year yields are up 10 bps today to the highest since mid-December.

Italian elections near the end of the month are also a concern.

The euro nudged through yesterday’s low of 1.3586 but follow through has been limited. There was earlier chatter about bids down to 1.3575 but some stops may be mixed in as well.

Sentix Feb European investor confidence -3.9 vs -1.7 exp

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:34 AM PST

  • Prior reading was -7.0

A bit lower than expected but still the best reading since mid-2011.

UK construction PMI 48.7 vs 49.2 exp

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:31 AM PST

  • Prior reading was also 48.7

EUR/GBP inching lower after the release.

Another big figure bites the dust in USD/JPY

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 01:22 AM PST

No mercy in USD/JPY as it hits yet another two-and-a-half year high.

Barriers continue to pop up around each big figure but the pace of the rise in USD/JPY hasn’t allowed any significant size to accumulate.

EUR/JPY offers in the 126.85/00 zone with stops above.

Muscovici’s concerns getting quite a bit of an airing this morning

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 12:58 AM PST

Muscovici’s weekend comment is getting quite a bit of air on dealing desks this morning.

He said, in a TV interview, that the Euro was ‘possibly too high’.

Reuters article: France on track to meet 0.8 percent growth target: minister

ForexLive post

EUR/CHF Levels/orders

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 12:20 AM PST

  • Bids coming in the EUR/CHF at 1.2360/70 and lower around 1.2330.
  • On the topside offers at 1.2410/15
  • There is a 1.2370 expiry due at the 10AM NY cut.

In USD/CHF, offers 0.9100/20 with stop loss buying above.

GBP/USD order update & option expiry

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 12:06 AM PST

I posted this earlier (complete with typo :-( )

Bearish sentiment is high in the Cable. Understandably so. And the ugly bearish engulfing on Friday is just going to encourage them :-)
1.5700 and thereabouts, though, is longer-term support, and we should plan for some sort of sideways action around these levels for coming days (I beleive this is referred to as 'Famous Last Words').
On the topside around 1.5860 hold selling; 1.59.50 above there.
Downside has bids down to around 1.5670 and then a mixture of bids and more sell orders below.

I have a few things to add, a little more information gleaned:

  • Macro fund the buyer in the early morning so far from just below 1.5700
  • Offers at 1.5725/30 and 1.5740/50
  • There is a 1.5700 option expiry at the NY 10am cut.

Orderboard

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:56 PM PST

Morgan Stanley order in GBP/USD

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:34 PM PST

Morgan Stanley has a limit order to sell GBP/USD at 1.2832, with a protective stop at 1.5930, and a target of 1.5270.

That “1.2832″ is obviously a typo – according the headline to the article the selling is at 1.5832

Link to eFX

JP Morgan: “Buy dips in EUR/AUD”

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:30 PM PST

Link to eFX:

  • High risk of a pullback in the EUR/AUD given the short term overbought setup.
  • Buy retracements targeting 1.38 risking 1.27

 

Hong Kong Press: China exchanges to raise margins ahead of holidays

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 11:09 PM PST

The commodity futures exchanges in China will temporarily raise trading margins and daily limits for all contracts later this week to curb volatility around the Lunar New Year holiday, they said on Monday.

Raising margins.

Yeah, that always end well :-)

China's exchanges are closed from February 11-15 for the holiday.

China exchanges to raise margins ahead of holidays

Greek Press: Hatzidakis to meet EU Task Force chief to discuss funds and reforms

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:53 PM PST

Development Minister Costis Hatzidakis is due to meet the head of the EU Task Force for Greece, Horst Reichenbach, in Athens on Monday afternoon.

Kathimerini

Greek Press: Troika pressing Greece to end automatic wage increases

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:52 PM PST

Some news from the Greek press:

The troika is insisting that Greek workers who should not receive automatic wage increases based on the number of years they have served, Kathimerini understands.

Kathimerini

GBP/USD Levels/orders

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:39 PM PST

Bearish sentiment is high in the Cable. Understandably so. And the ugly bearish engulfing on Friday is just going to encourage them :-)

1.5700 and thereabouts, though, is longer-term support, and we should plan for some sort of sideways action around these levels for coming days (I beleive this is referred to as ‘Famous Last Words’).

On the topside around 1.5860 hold selling; 1.59.50 above there.

Downside has bids down to around 1.5670 and then a mixture of bids and more sell orders below.

AUD Levels/orders for today

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 10:09 PM PST

A tight range-bound sort of day in AUD during the Asian session. There is an RBA meeting tomorrow, which kept new initiatives to a minimum and thus flows light.

Capital investment into mining got a boost with this announcement: Rio gets OK for $3bn expansion in Pilbara . The market isn’t getting too excited, as other projects being shelved has been part of the news recently. But its another reason the RBA is unlikely to cut interest rates tomorrow.

1.0400/10 holds bids in the AUD, and below there 1.0360/70.

On the topside 1.0440/50 offers.

Cross flows are pushing the AUD/USD around. We saw some rotation out of the popular EUR/AUD trade during the Asian session which lent support to AUD/USD. EUR/AUD hold bids again, though from 1.3000, offers 1.3120/30.

The AUD/NZD sellers took a breather today too. NZD/USD spiked in the early hours (well before Tokyo) to 0.8492. There is a huge band of resistance in NZD/USD at present levels, giving some support to AUD/NZD.

Option expiries for the 10am NY Cut today

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:52 PM PST

There are offers ahead of barrier option at 93.00 USD/JPY and 127.00 EUR/JPY.

Option expiries for the 10AM NY cut:

  • USD/JPY: 92.00 92.25 92.50
  • EUR/USD 1.3600 1.3625 1.3700
  • AUD/USD 1.0400 1.0450 1.0500
  • I’ll have GBP and CHF – related information as I get it.

 

EUR Levels/orders today

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:46 PM PST

Not a lot of news over the weekend, but a couple of items to be aware of:

Monte Paschi probe enters crucial week as Italy elections near

Spain's Rajoy Fails to Quell Graft Criticism Amid Calls to Quit

1.3700 is a big level now, with solid offer interest around there.  1.3715  has stops above.

Around 1.3660 is also well offered.

On the downside there are bids ahead of 1.3600 with trader stops below.

ADDED – System traders have stops below 1.3590

Overall the bias is still higher for the EUR, but 1.3700 is going to be a test for it.

USD/JPY and EUR/JPY levels/orders

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:37 PM PST

There are barrier-option (93.00) related sellers  from 92.80 (though they came in a little lower around 92.75 during the Asian day) at present. Further sell orders at 93.15 from Japanese exporters.

On the downside 92.50/55 attracted buy orders during the Asian day, with further talk of more bids 92.25/40. There are also stops below 92.40.

91.80/92.00 more bids on the downside.

-

EUR/JPY buy orders from 126.00, with stops below 125.80/85. Bids around 125.30/40.

Topside around 126.90/127.00 holds offers – trading stops above there and more sellers ahead of 127.50.

 

Ideas Corner

Posted: 03 Feb 2013 09:02 PM PST

Good Morning to those joining ForeLive for the European session. I’ll be taking the first few hours of the session, with Adam taking over later.

I’ll have orders/levels posted up soon and option information also.

For now, though, over to you – any trading ideas please post them here.

 


at 6:05 PM

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