InstaForex

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Eurozone retail sales -0.8% m/m vs -0.5% exp

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 02:02 AM PST

Chatter about reserve adjustments

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 01:53 AM PST

Some sources saying that a large reserve adjustment was behind the jump in EUR/JPY.

There have been multiple reports of a large German buyer as the driver but the client is likely Asian. Eamonn had some great chatter about it earlier.

It would be unusual to see such an aggressive shift in reserves but it makes as much sense as anything.

Hollande says worst of euro crisis has passed

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 01:50 AM PST

The French PM is speaking to European parliament:

  • ‘No respite’ while 27M Europeans are jobless
  • Europe is leaving the euro to vulnerable to variations in one direction or the other
  • Euro vulnerable to ‘irrational’ swings.

I’m not sure what to make of those last two comments. I can’t imagine officials doing anything to limit volatility.

USD/JPY back above 93.00

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 01:47 AM PST

It has been a straight-line move over the past hour to a high of 93.04. I suspect it was the Shirakawa news leaking out earlier in the Japanese press but I can’t confirm.

The next level of resistance is 93.18 followed by a barrier at 93.25.

Similar story in EUR/JPY which has rallied nearly 200 pips but has stalled out ahead of 126 (for now). More buy stops above.

South Africa unemployment 24.9% vs 25.5% exp

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 01:35 AM PST

A touch of USD/ZAR weakness after the data but it’s hard to celebrate when unemployment is near one-in-four.

UK January Services PMI 51.5 (vs. 48.9 in December)

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 01:28 AM PST

BOJ Governor says he will step down on March 19

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 01:23 AM PST

  • He was due to depart on April 8
  • The two deputy governors are also due to resign on March 19

Incoming Data: UK January Services PMI at 0930GMT

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 01:03 AM PST

At 0930GMT we get January UK Services PMI, 49.5 is the market expectation.

Eurozone January Composite PMI 48.6 (vs. 47.2 in December)

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 12:59 AM PST

January Flash was 48.2

Eurozone January Services PMI 48.6 (vs. 47.8 in December)

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 12:58 AM PST

January Flash was 48.3

German January Services PMI 55.7 (vs. 52 in December)

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 12:55 AM PST

  • January Flash was 55.3

French January Services PMI 43.6 (vs. December 45.2)

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 12:49 AM PST

Spain and Italy January Service PMIs were out earlier:

  • Spain at 47.0 (44.3 prior)
  • Italy at 43.9 (45.6 prior)

 

Incoming Data: French, German & Eurozone Services PMI from 0850GMT

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 12:21 AM PST

  • At 0850GMT we get Final January French Services PMI, 43.6 is the market expectation.
  • At 0855GMT we get Final January German Services PMI, 55.3 is the market expectation.
  • At 0900GMT we get Final January Eurozone Services PMI, 48.3 is the market expectation.
  • Also at 0900GMT is Final January Eurozone Composite PMI, 48.2 is the market expectation.

Talk of Asian sovereign on bid in EUR/USD

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 11:59 PM PST

Chat from the banks is an Asian sovereign on the bid sub 1.3460 in EUR/USD.

Other order-related information:

  • Offers building 1.3495/05 and 1.3520/30

 

AUD 1.0420 resistance

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 11:40 PM PST

There is AUD/USD resistance around 1.0420. and then again around 1.0435.

After the RBA announcement of no change in the Cash target rate today the AUD/USD immediately spiked to 1.0450/55 only to be hit very hard back to 1.0415. It traded 15/25 for 10 minuteds before falling below 1.04 and has since retraced.

There should now be sell orders around the 1.0420 level, more around 1.0435.

Swiss December Trade Balance 1.00Bn (vs. 2.0Bn expected)

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 11:00 PM PST

  • November was 2.91BN ( revised from 2.95B CHF)
  • December Exports -1.5% (November was +5.5%, revised from +6.0%)
  • December Imports +5.5% (November was +4.5%, revised from +0.2%)

GBP Orders/levels

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 10:50 PM PST

GBP/USD is on the move; the bad news is I haven’t got much information to impart on orders for the pair as yet. I’ll be back with the information as soon as I can.

From a technical perspective, 1.5770 was well offered in late New York and should offer some further resistance if it retests. On the downside it looks a little vulnerable until 1.5100/10 (again, I don’t have order information just yet, purely looking at the techs.)

Incoming Data: Swiss December Trade Balance at 0700GMT

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 10:47 PM PST

  • November was 2.95B CHF
  • Market expects 2.00B

Option expiries for the 10am NY cut today

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 10:43 PM PST

Vanilla option expiries in the USD/JPY to be aware of around 10am NY:

  • 91.50
  • 92.00
  • 92.50
  • 93.00

For the EUR/USD:

  • 1.3550
  • 1.3510
  • 1.3500

AUD/USD and AUD crosses:

  • 1.0340
  • 1.0410
  • 1.0450 & 1.0455
  • 96.50 AUD/JPY
  • 1.2450 AUD/NZD

GBP/USD:

  • 1.5700

Yen Levels/orders for today

Posted: 04 Feb 2013 10:34 PM PST

USD/JPY traded just below 92.00 and EUR/JPY below 124.20 in late New York/early Asia where both found buyers – Japanese importers notable buyers today.

USD/JPY traded as high after this to 92.50/55, EUR/JPY t0 125.00.

The only comments of note were from the Secretary General of the OECD who said that Japan was “genuinely acting to beat deflation not merely cheapening the yen”, so helping to ease the ‘currency war’ accusations recently leveled against Japan.

There are still reported good size bids around 92.00, with further interest down through 91.80 and then 91.50. Note, though, there are stop loss sellers from 91.90 and below also; more again below 91.50.

On the topside 92.50/60 hold sellers, and again there are more sellers on the way up, notably around 92.70 and 92.90.

EUR/JPY offers 125.65/75 and 125.20/30
On the downside, bids 123.65/75 and 123.00/20


at 6:04 PM

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)