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Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

We’d be selling GBP if Turner had won

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 01:57 AM PST

One of the runners up to Mark Carney to take over the leadership of the Bank of England said that in some circumstances it’s a good idea to permanently print money to pay off government debt.

FSA Chairman Adair Turner told the FT today that “there exist some circumstances, in which it is appropriate to take that risk.”

He said the UK isn’t one of those circumstances… but the mere mention of monetary financing would have smashed cable if he were in line for King’s throne.

Carney speaks to UK parliament tomorrow.

AUD update

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 01:33 AM PST

Market chatter has it that the big macro seller of AUD today has stopped selling for the time being. Its pierced 1.3300, buyers said to be appearing 1.0285, but also some stops still to be done down here.

Senkaku/Diaoyu: Radar incident after US deployed AWACS

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 12:58 AM PST

An article in Asahi Shimbun detailing increased Chinese fears over US intervention in the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute:

A Chinese maritime patrol aircraft on Dec. 13 entered Japanese airspace over the islands in the East China Sea, the first by China since 1958, when the Self-Defense Forces began keeping data.
In response, the U.S. military on Jan. 10 began deploying airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft, equipped with sophisticated radar systems, to monitor the area around the uninhabited islands. A source close to the Chinese military blasted the deployment, calling it an "intervention" in the territorial dispute.

More here: China increased belligerence after U.S. aircraft deployment near Senkakus

Fitch: Circumstances for US downgrade

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 12:42 AM PST

Heard a rumour/chatter saying Fitch would cut US rating unless there is some credible fiscal consolidation in 2013.

Haven’t confirmed it yet.

More on the USD/CHF

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 12:26 AM PST

After the stop-loss run up through 0.9110 and 0.9120 there is talk now of 0.9150 holding offers

EUR/USD important test at 1.3500

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 12:11 AM PST

Around 1.3500 is a big level for the EUR/USD.

Also, check out USD/CHF this morning, it had a good rally in Asia that is continuing.

GBP/USD poll

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 11:26 PM PST

OK, and for the final poll for today.

We’re at 1.5640

What’s first, 1.5540 or 1.5740?

Reasoning if you wish.

(This one’s easy … 1.5540 … ’cause it looks like utter garbage on the charts (ps. famous last words))

AUD/USD poll

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 11:24 PM PST

OK, continuing with the requests for some polls – this one for the AUD traders.

We are at 1.0335 (and isn’t it like pulling teeth?)

What’s first:

1.0235 or 1.0435?

And why? If you wish, if not, just the number is fine!

EUR/USD Poll

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 11:21 PM PST

OK – I got a special request to do some polls.

So let’s start with EUR/USD:

We are at 1.3560

What’s first 1.3460 or 1.3660?

Reasones if you wish, if not, thats fine too!

GBP Levels/orders

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 10:51 PM PST

Cable had a sideways session in Asia, around 1.5650/60 all day.There are some sellers around 1.5665.

  • On the topside initial selling is seen around 1.5685/1.5700 then 1.5740/50.
  • Some buyers 1.5625/35, more 1.5600/10.

I was asked about GBP/JPY, they are both weak but Yen more so at present.

  • Around 146.40 are some buying orders (not large), 145.80/90 also.
  • Topside above 147.20 holds selling (again, not large orders)

Options expiries today

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 10:40 PM PST

For the 10Am NY cut.

For USD/JPY:

  • Vanilla option expiries at 93.00 / 93.25 / 93.50
  • 91.00 and 91.25, although a long way off,  are said to be large sized expiries. Also a ways off are 95.00 barriers.

EUR/USD 1.3500 and 1.3600

AUD/USD 1.0415 and 1.0435

ADDED at 0735GMT: Large 1.5630 strike in Cable for 10AM NY expiry

 

EUR/USD Levels/orders

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 10:34 PM PST

EUR/USD had its typically (of late) quiet Asian session, losing a little ground in the late afternoon with some EUR/JPY selling from around 127.60.

For EUR/USD this morning:

  • Offers seen from 1.3585/1.3600 – more sellers clustering 1.3630/40.
  • There is some buying interest close by around this current 1.3560 level
  • Bids on downside 1.3515/25 and around 1.3500.

AUD Levels/orders into Europe

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 10:26 PM PST

AUD/USD has performed poorly today. Retails Sales figures for December fell 0.2% against a market expectation of a 0.3% rise. AUD/USD fell from around 1.0395 to 1.0370 before lsoing another 20 points in the following hour. Once on 1.0350 it didn’t stir, and hit 1.0340 in the late afternoon. Since then its been capped at 1.055/60.

Sellers at 1.0360/70 and again at 1.0375/85.

Some buyers at 1.0335/40

The market is very bearish on the AUD, but it also appears short; a rally could easily take it to retest those selling levels.

Ideas corner

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 10:16 PM PST

Any trade ideas, views – this is where to put them!

USD/JPY Levels/orders into Europe

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 10:16 PM PST

The barrier options at 94.00 have been taken out. Prices above 94.00 were sharply rejected, though, after the 94.07 high. Profit-takers were satisfied selling after running it above the figure.

94.15/20 holds more sellers. It seems premature to be talking about 95.00, but market talk is of large offers there and ahead of.

On the downside, around 93.50 has bids and more layered lower, especially around  93.20/30.

EUR/JPY offers ahead of 128.00, bids 126.70.

NIkkei up nearly 4%

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 09:35 PM PST

People looking at the Nikkei chart:

So, what do we think of the AUD for the next few hours?

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 09:00 PM PST

In the ‘twilight zone’ between Sydney close and the London open there’s a couple of hours of poor liquidity. Can AUD/USD get knocked lower during the next few hours?

AUD/USD looks very, very heavy. Its been unable to get off the canvas at 1.0350 today. It looks like George Foreman getting rumbled in the jungle.

The market is bearish. Justifiably so I think … but is it too short for the AUD to fall?

What are thoughts here?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLL-J01UBto

ForexLive Asia Wrap: USD/JPY approaches 94.00

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 08:50 PM PST

It was a light day for economic data releases and news after the fireworks in Europe and New York. Currency markets reflected this lack of new input today, settling into tight ranges almost across the board.

The Yen, in keeping with recent activity was the most active, continuing to lose ground; USD/JPY trading to 93.90 in Tokyo, EUR/JPY to just above 127.60.

AUD/USD behaved in a very heavy fashion, unable to pick itself up off 1.0350/55, recent lows. The entire market seems bearish, and justifiably so, seemingly searching for a new impetus for a move below 1.0350. Poor retail sales data today could not do the trick. I’ve lost count of how many times AUD has looked awful only to spurt 3 big figures higher … but maybe this time lower for sure?

Interestingly, USD/CHF had a 35-point rally from its lows today. It's a sad day when we are reduced to talking about USD/CHF as a big mover in Asia :-) .

Japanese Vice Finance Minister Shunichi Yamaguchi – recap of comments

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 08:15 PM PST

  • central bank's policy tools are sufficient for now, … no quick push for the foreign bond purchases previously suggested by the ruling party
  • "The Bank of Japan, for the time being, should stick to the policy measures it has taken so far," Yamaguchi, 62, said in an interview yesterday in Tokyo. 'If it became necessary to do something more, then that is something to be considered at that time.''
  • Yamaguchi was interviewed before Shirakawa made his announcement,

BOJ Policy Tools Sufficient for Now, Deputy Finance Chief Says

Reuters article recap of BOJ’s Sato’s speech

Posted: 05 Feb 2013 08:08 PM PST

  • Recent yen declines have buoyed Japanese equities and may help spur price rises driven by economic growth
  • Will continue to seek ways to indirectly affect exchange-rates through monetary policy.
  • Sato dismissed calls for the BOJ to buy more risky assets, warning that doing so could expose its balance sheet to huge losses and hurt market confidence in the yen.

More here: BOJ’s Sato says to seek ways to indirectly affect yen moves


at 6:08 PM

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