Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Mark Carney comments
UK ip +1.1% mfg +1.6%
The Mark Carney effect
Cable Euro moves
Cable and Euro on the move
French merchandise trade -E5.4bn
Reuters article: Japan PM’s push for radical BOJ head meets resistance
A quick look at the markets
Swiss consumer confidence +8 to -6 points
Option expiries
On the European calendar today
AUD Levels/orders
Yen Levels/orders into Europe
Good morning Europe and the world
IMF senior economist says ‘no magic bullet’ to raise growth in Japan
EUR/USD Levels/orders
Nakao: Investment, consumption central to Abe’s economic policy
Japan’s Vice Finance Minister Nakao: Abe’s economic policy has been successful so far
BOJ likely to consider revising up its economic assessment next week – Newswire headline
ECB’s Coeure: Agreement on winding down banks must be reached this year

Mark Carney comments

Posted: 07 Feb 2013 01:50 AM PST

…to follow.

No live link up at the moment.

Seems like they are all still in the cafe.

UK ip +1.1% mfg +1.6%

Posted: 07 Feb 2013 01:32 AM PST

Very strong figures. Cable back up to 1.5670′s from 1.5655

A welcome boost to the manufacturing and production sector, and in turn to the UK economy. It should quell any talk of further QE increases ahead of the meeting.

Keep calm and carry on will probably be the order of the day from the BOE.

The Mark Carney effect

Posted: 07 Feb 2013 01:09 AM PST

So we have our new BOE governor elect up before the treasury select committee at 9.45. As I’ve posted in the comments I don’t really have an educated idea on the fellow. Obviously everyone is waiting for any indication from him as to what his policy aims will be and it will be these that impacts sterling.

No doubt we’ll have 10 minutes of pleasantries and history before the nitty gritty starts.

~~I’ll try and find a web link to pop up on here~~. Live link here

Cable Euro moves

Posted: 07 Feb 2013 12:56 AM PST

The recent bounce has been attributed to some position adjustment ahead of the rate decisions. It’s a pretty mixed bag of M/E banks and clearers.

Further talk of the strong Euro affecting growth is still being bantered around.

It’s the usual ingredients we get before rate decisions.

Cable and Euro on the move

Posted: 07 Feb 2013 12:18 AM PST

A quick pop up to 1.5687. Can’t see any news at the moment that may have caused this. I’ll look for further confirmation but it may just be some position adjustment before the upcoming releases.

edit: Euro on the move also now. Breaking through 1.3550.

French merchandise trade -E5.4bn

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 11:56 PM PST

No real reaction to the figure

Reuters article: Japan PM’s push for radical BOJ head meets resistance

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 11:36 PM PST

The Japanese prime minister’s push for a governor who will lead a radical policy shake up at the Bank of Japan is meeting resistance from his own cabinet and financial bureaucrats, who fear extreme measures from the central bank may trigger a damaging rise in bond yields.

The article goes on to discuss the various candidates, the ‘radicals’ favoured by Abe, and the more conservative favoured by Aso and the bureaucrats. Its important background information.

Japan PM’s push for radical BOJ head meets resistance

A quick look at the markets

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 11:33 PM PST

Pretty steady at the moment in the majors.

EUR/USD hovering around the 1.3530/40 level after an initial run up from the 1.3500 area.

GBP/USD 1.5660/70 and stable

USD/JPY As Eammon pointed out, after holding the 93.30 area were calm at 93.60/70

AUD/USD After dipping it’s toes below 1.0300 a few times yesterday a small bounce to current level should not have been unexpected.

While we will probably not stray too far away from these levels with the interest rate decisions due (famous last words), the UK and German econ releases could give us some movement. No doubt the market will use the figures to fine tune their expectations from the BOE and ECB meetings.

Swiss consumer confidence +8 to -6 points

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 10:58 PM PST

first improvement in 3 qtrs
had been below historical average for previous for last 2 surveys

Maybe our Swiss friends had been taking advantage of the currency to do a bit of border hopping rather than shopping at home.

Option expiries

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 10:44 PM PST

For the 10AM NY cut.

USD/JPY 93.00, 93.50, 94.00, 94.10

EUR/USD 1.3500

GBP/USD 1.5360, 1.5700, 1.5715

On the European calendar today

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 10:44 PM PST

6.45 Swiss SECO consumer confidence exp -14 from prior -17

7.45 French trade balance exp -4.2bn from prior -4.3bn

8.00 Spanish industrial production y/y exp -6.6% prior -7.2%

9.30 UKindustrial production m/m exp 0.9% prior 0.3% y/y -2.1% prior -2.4%

UKmanufacturing production m/m exp 0.8% prior -0.3%

UKtrade balance exp -8.9bn prior -9.2bn

11.00 German industrial production m/m exp unchanged from prior 0.2%

12.00 UKinterest rate decision exp unchanged at 0.5%

UK QE exp unchanged at 375bn

12.45 EU interest rate decision exp unchanged. Press conference at 13.30

All being well I will look to go into greater detail on some of the figures later.

The full economic calendar can be found at the top of the site.

AUD Levels/orders

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 10:41 PM PST

The lows under 1.03 were rejected again today.
There are exporter bids below 1.0300, layered on downside and into bids from offshore players around 1.0250
Topside sellers around 1.0350
AUD/JPY buyers 96.00 to 96.25
Friday sees the release of the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy – this will be keenly examined for clues as to a March/April rate cuts.

Yen Levels/orders into Europe

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 10:35 PM PST

USD/JPY

bids at 93.25/35 and below. There are, however, trader stops below 93.25 and more below 92.90/00
On the topside. offers sitting around 93.60/70 (we are there now)
EUR/JPY bids ahead of 126.00 and stops below 125.85

Good morning Europe and the world

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 10:33 PM PST

My name is Ryan and I've kindly been given the opportunity to help out the wonderful Forexlive team for a couple of days.

Firstly a thank you to Neils & Eammon for their overnight coverage. I hope to provide you good readers with the same high level of service as the rest of the team. Failing that, if the site doesn't disappear into a fiery crater by my hand come Friday afternoon I will call that a result.

IMF senior economist says ‘no magic bullet’ to raise growth in Japan

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 10:30 PM PST

Danninger speaking in Tokyo

Says need a comprehensive package for Japan growth

EUR/USD Levels/orders

Posted: 06 Feb 2013 10:29 PM PST

Good Morning Europe and London traders.

EUR/USD levels to watch ahead of the ECB announcement:

1.3545/55 offers around the New York high from yesterday still active.
Bids around 1.3500, but talk is good stops below 1.3485/90

For the ECB meeting, rates are expected to remain on hold (of course) so the main interest is in the accompanying statement and comments. Market talk is an expectation that the tone will be less hawkish than the previous meeting, leaning a little dovish.