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• Italian Q4 GDP final : m/m -0.9% vs -0.9 exp y/y -2.8% vs -2.7 exp
• Order board: EURJPY
• Order board: GBPUSD
• Italian 5 yr credit default swaps rise to 265 bps, up 16 this morning
• Order board: USDJPY
• Order board: EURUSD
• Swiss Retail Sales y/y 1.9% vs expectation 2.8%
• European stock markets update
• Danish February CPI: as expected 1.2% y/y; trade surplus correction
• Japan: Abe cannot conceive of Japan suffering hyper inflation
• French January Industrial Production: down 1.2% vs expectation – 0.10%
• Italy/German 10yr Bond spreads widen to 318 bps
• China CSI300 down 0.60%; Europeans mixed at open
• Finnish Trade Balance: – Eur 0.43bn
• German January Trade Balance SA: as expectation Eu 15.7bn
• Trading Ideas – your turn !
• EURJPY tech update: upside could be the trade of the week ?
• Chinese Feb Vehicle Sales drop 13.6% y/y
• BOJ’s Ishida: BOJ effectively buying JGBs in open-ended manner
• Asian Bourse Update: Nikkei closes up 0.53% AT 12,349.05

Italian Q4 GDP final : m/m -0.9% vs -0.9 exp y/y -2.8% vs -2.7 exp Posted: 11 Mar 2013 02:05 AM PDT previously m/m   -0.9%  y/y -2.7%

Order board: EURJPY Posted: 11 Mar 2013 02:02 AM PDT offers  125.60 ( barrier option related ), 126.00, 126.50, 127.50 bids 124.55, 124.40, 124.00-10, 123.85, 123.40, 122.60

Order board: GBPUSD Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:56 AM PDT offers 1.4950, 1.4965, 1.4985, 1.5000-10 ( stop loss buying if breached), 1.5050, 1.5080, 1.5100-10,( stop loss buying if breached ), 1.5140, 1.5200 bids 1.4900, 1.4885, 1.4855, 1.4830, 1.4800-10

Italian 5 yr credit default swaps rise to 265 bps, up 16 this morning Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:53 AM PDT Spanish/Italian 10yr bond spread narrows to 10 bps

Order board: USDJPY Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:52 AM PDT offers  96.25-30, 96.60, 96.70, 97.00, bids  95.90, 95.50, 95.25, 95.00, 94.85, 94.50, 94.15

Order board: EURUSD Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:48 AM PDT Hello all, I trust you had a great week-end. Here’s the first of the orders that we’ve gleaned this morning for Brady and others offers  1.3025, 1.3050, 1.3060, 1.3090-1.3100, 1.3125 bids  1.2980, 1.2955, ( option related ), 1.2935, 1.2900, 1.2880, 1.2865, 1.2850 ( option barrier) Have a successful week out there.

Swiss Retail Sales y/y 1.9% vs expectation 2.8% Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:26 AM PDT last 4.7%

European stock markets update Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:04 AM PDT DAX down 0.2 % Italy down 1.0 % CAC down 0.3 % Spain down 0.4 % FTSE down 0.1 % Hang Seng closed flat

Danish February CPI: as expected 1.2% y/y; trade surplus correction Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:01 AM PDT last 1.3% Danish Trade Balance:   DKK 6.6bn  vs exp DKK 5.50bn , last DKK 3.50bn (Reuters issued a correction – not DKK 4.7bn as previously advised)

Japan: Abe cannot conceive of Japan suffering hyper inflation Posted: 11 Mar 2013 01:00 AM PDT if inflation exceeds 2% target only natural for BOJ to take steps need to keep an eye on prices and long-term interest rates

French January Industrial Production: down 1.2% vs expectation – 0.10% Posted: 11 Mar 2013 12:50 AM PDT last at – 0.10% reuters poll was expected flat, we had – 0.10% January Manufacturing Industry Output fell 1.4% m/m vs revised +1.3% in december

Italy/German 10yr Bond spreads widen to 318 bps Posted: 11 Mar 2013 12:36 AM PDT 10 yr BTP yield 4.684% euro 10 pips lower 1.3005, surprisingly steady; market shrugging off the Italian downgrade, in fact the euro has shrugged off most things…so far

China CSI300 down 0.60%; Europeans mixed at open Posted: 11 Mar 2013 12:09 AM PDT Shanghai down 0.4% Eurostoxx down 0.15% DAX futures up 0.02% CAC futures down 0.03% Italian BTP futures down 77 ticks at 108.60 German Bund futures open 26 ticks higher at 142.72

Finnish Trade Balance: – Eur 0.43bn Posted: 11 Mar 2013 12:05 AM PDT last – Eu 0.74bn

German January Trade Balance SA: as expectation Eu 15.7bn Posted: 11 Mar 2013 12:01 AM PDT last Eu 16.8bn now revised (december) to Eu 16.9bn Exports rose m/m 1.4% exp 0.50% last  0.30% Imports rose m/m 3.3% exp 0.90% last – 1.30%

Trading Ideas – your turn ! Posted: 10 Mar 2013 11:55 PM PDT Time to come out of the closet; who cares what others think, we live in the 21st century after all – if you’re a buyer of yen, let us know ! I haven’t really changed my views since friday…just remember these are my ideas and I do have a bigger picture view…  Here's a couple from me; I have had a decent run recently most of which I have posted here in the last two weeks. However, do bear in mind I trade a longer view, and I will add a little 'meat' to the ideas during the session: long EURGBP, I a long at a good level and  looking for a serious move higher towards 0.8800+ hence buy decent dips long EURCHF , again buy good dips; SNB's Jordan speaks in a while and he won't be talking it down! I am looking for a regain of 1.2500 and above; this is the patience trade but worth it long USDCHF, again buying dips, the USD is re-emerging and the swissy will be a key leader in my opinion long USDJPY – I think after the 'worrying dip' last week 92.50-93 is the base AUDUSD seems to be in a 1.0150 – 1.0330 band and I would be tempted to trade the parameters with stops either side One of my core beliefs is that sterling has more downside than the euro; it will be a surprise if european interest are cut and that may swing the balance of my thoughts short term; The UK we have to expect to continue with QE. ADDENDUM: I am neutral to cautiously bullish EURUSD (see earlier EURJPY post); and bullish and a buyer of dips on the latter pair (same post); and as I know I will be asked soon (!) I am of the same opinion as last week on GBPNZD – long , target 1.8500, stop now 100 pips higher at 1.8037.

EURJPY tech update: upside could be the trade of the week ? Posted: 10 Mar 2013 11:42 PM PDT Last week’s bullish weekly close and a look at the H4 seems to lay the way for me to a test of 128.00 and in the bigger picture 130.00 – 132.00. To me it’s a very clear buy on dips with a stop below 123.50; USDJPY is clearly bid and the EURUSD seems lacking in downward follow-through (and what can’t go down will go up). Weekly EURJPY EURJPY H4 11 Mar

Chinese Feb Vehicle Sales drop 13.6% y/y Posted: 10 Mar 2013 11:12 PM PDT Jan – Feb vehicles sales up 14.7% y/y reported from Chinese Industry Association

BOJ’s Ishida: BOJ effectively buying JGBs in open-ended manner Posted: 10 Mar 2013 11:09 PM PDT proposed scrapping 0.1% floor on rates in the past on view it may help correct excessive yen strength not aiming to directly manipulate forex rates with mon pol must examine costs and benefits in deciding whether  to target longer dated JGBs in easing mon pol Nothing new but worth a few pips encouragement to USDJPY – any rhetoric seems aimed to assist; remember that talking isn’t manipulating.

Asian Bourse Update: Nikkei closes up 0.53% AT 12,349.05 Posted: 10 Mar 2013 11:05 PM PDT Kospi closes down 0.13%

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