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Italian February CPI: 0.10% as expected, 1.90% y/y as expected
Order board buyers in Euro and USDJPY holding the line
Swedish February CPI: + 0.40% m/m as expected, y/y -0.20% also on expectation
I’m Not Confident About US Markets: Jim O’Neill
Japan’s DJP confirming approval of Kuroda and Nakaso
OCO the way to go ? further thoughts on EURGBP…with editor’s note
French January Current Account: – Eur 5.0bn
Orders around the market
German February Wholesale Prices: 0.10% , 1.4% y/y
German February CPI: as exp 0.60%,
EURGBP Tech
Profit taking after Asian lead, EURJPY leading
Trading thoughts…today’s wisdom may be tomorrow’s retirement !
Nikkei and Kospi closes
Antipodeans part 2: AUDJPY highest since august 2008
Hard to keep the antipodeans down: it’s not just the kangaroos !
Japan January Consumer Confidence Index 44.3
Option Expiries for the NY cut (10am, 2pm gmt)
Today’s European session calendar
DPJ said to back Kuroda and Nakaso, but not Iwata

Italian February CPI: 0.10% as expected, 1.90% y/y as expected

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 02:04 AM PDT

last monthly 0.10%
last y/y 1.90%
CPI m/m EU norm: -0.20%
CPI y/y EU norm: 2.00%
all expected no reaction in the euro

Order board buyers in Euro and USDJPY holding the line

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 01:40 AM PDT

Buyers below 1.3000 (90-00) have encouraged the pair back above the figure, as have the USDJPY buyers ahead of 96.00.

EURJPY up 30 pips off the base at 125.07

Swedish February CPI: + 0.40% m/m as expected, y/y -0.20% also on expectation

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 01:31 AM PDT

I’m Not Confident About US Markets: Jim O’Neill

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 01:29 AM PDT

Well-followed and respected GSAM Chairman via CNBC in an article that came out yesterday

Japan’s DJP confirming approval of Kuroda and Nakaso

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 01:23 AM PDT

just in case anyone has been hiding under a mushroom ( didn’t see you there); Iwata is expected to get some dissent but will likely get the vote via other parties’ support.

EURJPY and USDJPY sliding, nothing else showing news-wise so a bit surprised…maybe something else is out somewhere

OCO the way to go ? further thoughts on EURGBP…with editor’s note

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 01:07 AM PDT

Different strokes for different folks I guess but I have a hedged position in this pair which is skewed to the long side ie I am longer twice the amount I am short.

As I mentioned earlier this is the pair that stands out to me as the pair ‘most likely’ to give some sort of satisfaction on the UK data.

If the news is good for sterling the pair will go down and I am looking to take 40-50 points and would also buy a little more to improve the average of my long position as any bounce in sterling will be met by sellers.

If the news is bad I have a 20 pip stop which will be placed on the short side before the figures and will run the long which is the direction anyway ! make sense ?

It’s not a usual play for me intra-day but I thought I would share it (nb I do take this sort of strategy on medium term stuff occasionally).

I only recommend trying this with a tiny position and very strict risk management if the idea is new to you.

EDIT: apologies there may be many of you who may not have heard of an OCO – it’s a ‘one cancels the other’ order that you can set with your broker; say we take this example and the market before the data is 0.8735, you might place an OCO to sell at 0.8715 and put a stop at 20 pips ( 0.8735) and a profit/limit order at 0.8675 (40 pips) and the other side of the OCO would be to buy at 0.8750 to get a long position and put similar stop and profit targets on it.

Another option would be to just buy a dip on good news !

French January Current Account: – Eur 5.0bn

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 12:45 AM PDT

last – Eur 3.60bn, now revised to – Eur 3.80bn

Orders around the market

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 12:39 AM PDT

hearing a few snippets…

EURUSD – buyers 1.2990-00 assume they are interested in the maturity later; also a little lower 1.2970-80, with weak stops below and again buyers 1.2950 stops below; topside 1.3040-50 sellers stops above
USDJPY – buyers 96.20 levels, again at 96.00, intra-day stops below but good buyers down to 95.50; sellers 96.60-70 and 96.90-00, stops above and more stops above 97.25
GBPUSD – buyers at the moment 1.4870-80, small stops below and more below the buyers at 1.4850-60; topside sellers at 1.4920-30 and expect stops above 1.4950

German February Wholesale Prices: 0.10% , 1.4% y/y

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 12:02 AM PDT

January print was 0.30%
prior annual print was 2.30%

German February CPI: as exp 0.60%,

Posted: 12 Mar 2013 12:00 AM PDT

last 0.60%
CPI y/y 1.50% vs exp 1.50%,
HICP m/m as exp 0.80%
HICP y/y as exp 1.80%
no euro reaction as all data as expected

EURGBP Tech

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 11:55 PM PDT

Further to my post a few minutes ago here are a couple of charts – H1 and a weekly.

The first shows there is not a lot in the way back up to the recent high above 0.8815, then targeting the 0.9100 region per the weekly.

Should the UK data be a catalyst the cross should move one way or the other; on the downside with the market being long, we have the 0.618 and 0.50 on the hourly at approx 0.8720 and 0.8690 respectively as starting targets.

EURGBP H1

EURGBP weekly

Profit taking after Asian lead, EURJPY leading

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 11:39 PM PDT

Mr Market is seeing a gentle drift as some of the Asian session’s buyers ease off their longs and a few early Europeans take advantage of the higher euro led by EURJPY.

The euro is likely, barring unexpected surprise data, to dawdle around 1.3000 where, like yesterday, there is a decent sized option expiry.

Sterling on the other hand is far more likely to a sharper reaction; we have a clear bearish bias but we have a short market.

An obvious play to me would be in EURGBP.

Trading thoughts…today’s wisdom may be tomorrow’s retirement !

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 11:26 PM PDT

One day, they all shout in unison…well, you have to be in it to win it as I always say to myself as a buy the lottery ticket that will transport me to my yacht and other indulgences…

Roll up, roll up and share your thoughts; mine haven’t changed in the big picture.

Today we do have a couple of risky news items so let us tread carefully.

Pop them in this thread.

Nikkei and Kospi closes

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 11:04 PM PDT

Nikkei down 0.28% at 12,314.81
Kospi down 0.5%

Antipodeans part 2: AUDJPY highest since august 2008

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 10:48 PM PDT

…and that’s when it was in the early stages of the big slide from approx 104.40 to 55.00 !!!

The high overnight was 99.60; many of the big banks have had a target of 100 + and we will no doubt see that off and open the way towards the earlier-mentioned 2008 high and who knows ? perhaps the 2007 highs that were a whisker below 108.

See the weekly chart:

Hard to keep the antipodeans down: it’s not just the kangaroos !

Posted: 11 Mar 2013 10:32 PM PDT

I have had more than one ‘run in’ with kangaroos during my long time downunder: they ignore the dangers and have breakfast in the middle of the road and just do what kangaroos do…I am talking in the country here, not downtown George Street in Sydney !

And it seems there is no keeping the aussie and kiwi currency pairs tamed either.

Adam posted last evening on the NZDJPY carry trade; add to that and note the strength of the two antipodeans against most pairs especially the continually weak GBP where they have hit an all time low GBPAUD at 1.4458 and the GBPNZD had another brush with 1.8000.