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US Core Retail Sales Feb: m/m +0.4 % vs +0.2% exp
US February Import & Export Prices: 1.10% and 0.80% respectively vs exp 0.50% and 0.30%
EU’s Barroso: commission to propose one more year for Portugal to meet budget deficit targets
Coming up : US Retail Sales & Import Price Index @ 12.30 gmt
ForexLive European morning wrap: a mixed bag of bids and offers; let’s call it range trading
Order board: EURJPY – more bids approaching
Order board: AUDUSD
German finance ministry says Commerzbank capital structure is significantly improved now
Germany sells Eur 4.315bn in top-up of 2yr, 0.25%, Schatz
Italian bond auctions – decent uptake as expected
EZ January Industrial Production: – 0.40% vs exp – 0.10%, – 1.30% y/y vs exp – 2.2%
EURUSD tech: early in the session I mentioned the H4 triangle
ECB’s Weidmann: Euro will still be be Europe’s currency in ten years time
Order board: GBPUSD
EURJPY selling drives euro lower
USDJPY – buyers win the battle at 95.50
Order board: EURUSD
USDJPY testing the mettle at 95.50
European equity markets – company news
Spanish February CPI: 0.20% vs exp 0.10%, 2.80% y/y vs exp 2.70%

US Core Retail Sales Feb: m/m +0.4 % vs +0.2% exp

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 05:30 AM PDT

previously +0.2%
Retail Sales +1.1.% vs +0.5% exp / +0.1% prev

US February Import & Export Prices: 1.10% and 0.80% respectively vs exp 0.50% and 0.30%

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 05:30 AM PDT

Imports last at 0.60%
Exports last at 0.30%

EU’s Barroso: commission to propose one more year for Portugal to meet budget deficit targets

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 05:24 AM PDT

Coming up : US Retail Sales & Import Price Index @ 12.30 gmt

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 05:15 AM PDT

Core retail sales +0.2% exp vs +0.2% prev
Retail sales +0.5% exp vs +0.1% prev
Import Price Index +0.5% vs + 0.6% prev

ForexLive European morning wrap: a mixed bag of bids and offers; let’s call it range trading

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 04:24 AM PDT

French Q4 Non-Farm payrolls as expected fell 0.20%
China CB Chief Zhou advises that policy is neutral, not loose; targeted measures needed to tackle property prices
French February CPI 0.30% vs expected 0.50%, y/y was 1.20% vs expected 1.40%
Spanish February CPI 0.20% vs expected 0.10% with y/y at 2.80% vs expected 2.70%
ECB’s Weidmann commented that while there is no end to the EU crisis, the common currency will survive and speculation of any exits from the Union are senseless
EZ January Industrial Production 0.40% vs exp – 0.10%, y/y -1.30% vs exp – 2.20%

The Euro commenced the morning session quietly bid from a EURUSD open at 1.3037; the range was bound by offers at 1.3060s and buyers in the 1.3000s with the market poised yet again to hone in on optionality at the NY cut.

EURJPY selling from 124.80 gave the euro a southerly nudge as USDJPY held up in the 95.70s after rebuffing a push below 95.50 which found a firm bid.

European news was sparse and of little significance to a market which is position-driven.

Sterling found a bid as EURGBP met with sympathetic selling reflected from the move in EURJPY, and took out stops below 0.8720 and again at 0.8700; 0.8690 (current price) has supportive bids and we can expect stops 10-20 pips lower.

GBPUSD is trading firmly taking a breather from it’s recent steady down draught; the market is short and doubtless needs some respite. Currently trading 1.4960, expect selling towards 1.5000.

Market positioning being the key the USDJPY may yet see further attempts to test 95.50 and the break-up level of 95.00; rumored large option interest at 95.20 is in the air.

Antipodeans today were sidelined and remain steady to firm.

Order board: EURJPY – more bids approaching

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 04:22 AM PDT

This is what’s out there for this morning’s prime mover. Note we are heading toward decent buying interest

offers 124.85, 125.20, 125.50, 125.80, 12600-10 ( stop loss buying if breached )
bids 124.20 ,124.00, 123.80, 123.50
,

Order board: AUDUSD

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 04:15 AM PDT

offers 1.0330, 1.0340-50, 1.0370, 1.0385, 1.0400
bids 1.0290, 1.0280, 1.0240, 1.0200, 1.0150

German finance ministry says Commerzbank capital structure is significantly improved now

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 03:59 AM PDT

Welcomes the capital increase announcement
Says it marks the start of the exit of government stake in Commerzbank

We alerted you yesterday to the talk of Commerzbank looking to raise more capital, which was one of the reasons for the euro turning lower off its highs. This morning it announced it will raise EUR 2.5 billion ( more than expected ) in a capital increase to repay the German government and insurer Allianz as part of a bail-out it received during the financial crisis.

The German government will cut its stake Commerzbank to less than 20% from 25%.

Germany sells Eur 4.315bn in top-up of 2yr, 0.25%, Schatz

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 03:39 AM PDT

ave yield 0.06% (previous 0.21%)
price 100.385 and above, bid/cover 1.7 (previous 1.8)

Italian bond auctions – decent uptake as expected

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 03:32 AM PDT

The italian bond auctions came and went with the uptake at the top of or close expected ranges.

Nothing of note and no impact on euro

EZ January Industrial Production: – 0.40% vs exp – 0.10%, – 1.30% y/y vs exp – 2.2%

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 03:00 AM PDT

December print was 0.70% and y/y was – 2.40%

EURUSD tech: early in the session I mentioned the H4 triangle

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 02:51 AM PDT

The range bound by key orders which I mentioned in my posts – buyers 1.2990-10 and sellers at 1.3050-60 – seems to have contained the pair thus far.

Essentially we can see the parameters of the 0.236 and the 0.618 on the H4; I can’t see anything to take the range out until after the NY option expiry – thereafter look to a break of 1.2985 and 1.3075 ?

ECB’s Weidmann: Euro will still be be Europe’s currency in ten years time

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 02:33 AM PDT

no end to crisis in sight yet.

I sometimes wonder why we bother looking at these inane comments which are usually repeated ad infinitum: it is complete noise and general distraction from what is happening !

Perhaps I should write a letter…I shall do it from Koh Samui, signed ‘Interested party, somewhere in Asia’ !

Order board: GBPUSD

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 02:25 AM PDT

offers 1.4970, 1.4985, 1.5000-10 ( option expiry ), 1.5020, ( stop loss buying if breached ), 1.5050
bids 1.4925 (option expiry), 1.4900, 1.4880, 1.4835, 1.4800-10, 1.4790 ( stop loss selling if breached), 1.4765

EURJPY selling drives euro lower

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 02:20 AM PDT

I’m hearing that a large sell interest in EURJPY is driving EURUSD lower ( because of the bids in USDJPY just highlighted ) and this is having a knock-on effect into EURGBP too where stops below 8720 have just been triggered

USDJPY – buyers win the battle at 95.50

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 02:09 AM PDT

Mr Horton is too modest to say, so I will.

He told you the price action meant this pair was bid down at 95.50 and so it proved.

35 tics higher.. I hope you took heed of his advice.

Order board: EURUSD

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 01:52 AM PDT

Further to David’s post earlier here’s a few more orders on this pair

offers 1.3075-80, 1.3090-00, ( stop loss buying in 1.3110 is breached ), 1.3125, ( stop loss buying if 1.3140 is breached )
bids 1.3025, 1.3000, 1.2980, 1.2950-55,( option barrier/expiry), 1.2935, 1.2900, 1.2880

USDJPY testing the mettle at 95.50

Posted: 13 Mar 2013 01:07 AM PDT

A moment ago we had 95.44 business and seconds later 95.53 bid: battle is joined.

A couple of days ago I posted on the subject of perception ; this is a prime example.

Some of you will no doubt view the current slide and apparent pressure to move below 95.50 as bearish.

Yes, I am long but my experience tells me that when the 45 offered, 53 bid scenario happens, it is bid….

ADDENDUM: watch and see if the selling persists and if 95.40 gives then sellers win for the moment BUT if it keeps bouncing back you know you have a good buy opportunity with an obvious stop and an expectation of an upward continuation.