Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• Order board: EURUSD
• Swiss Producer/Import prices Feb: m/m +0.1% vs -0.1% prev
• European equities – Company news
• European equity markets: Little change on the opening
• USDCHF: Another where from here story
• Sellers of USD as Europe rolls in
• GBP: Poll time
• GBPUSD: Where from here?
• Has the BOE done with talking down the Pound?
• UK Press: The round-up
• Option expiries 10 am NY cut
• Japanese finmin Aso is still having comments reported: QE alone cant beat deflation
• ForexLive Asia wrap: New leadership at the BOJ approved by the Japanese parliament
• Japan press: China’s new leaders face myriad challenges
• Japan’s finmin Aso again: Says only boosting the monetary base will not boost the Japanese economy
• Reuters article: Slightly more ‘growth-friendly’ EU summit
• New Zealand drought the worst in 30 years
• Link to today’s KPMG report: Demystifying Chinese Investment in Australia: Update March 2013
• Sakakibara (Mr. Yen): Comeback of US economy is ‘real this time’ – and it will continue in the coming 2 – 3 years
• Citibank says no RBA rate hike in 2013

Order board: EURUSD Posted: 15 Mar 2013 01:23 AM PDT offers 1.3045, 1.3060, 1.3070-80,  1.3100-10 bids  1.3000, 1.2980, 1.2960, 1.2912, 1.2880, 1.2860,1.2850 ( option barrier )

Swiss Producer/Import prices Feb: m/m +0.1% vs -0.1% prev Posted: 15 Mar 2013 01:19 AM PDT y/y +0.1% vs + 0.8%

European equities – Company news Posted: 15 Mar 2013 01:10 AM PDT Vivendi: suspends sale of GVT, Maroc Tel sale still on Boeing: FAA ok’s battery improvements, 787s should fly 3-4 wks H&M: Q1 sales SEK28.4bn vs est SEK29.1bn. Same store sales -3% VW: Deutsche placing 5.8mln preference shares via bookbuild Vilmorin: completes private placing, buys Bisco Bio Sciences M&S: p/e consortium looking at £5/share bid Generali: so close to 2015 tgts, may need to up them now Rubis: FY EBIT €147mln vs cons €151.7mln. No 2013 guidance Eurotunnel: to build €100mln resort at Sangatte

European equity markets: Little change on the opening Posted: 15 Mar 2013 01:06 AM PDT FTSE 0.00% DAX +0.2% CAC40 -0.1% IBEX -0.2% FTMIB +0.5%

USDCHF: Another where from here story Posted: 15 Mar 2013 12:33 AM PDT This chart is almost GBPUSD in reverse, unsurprisingly given the general USD sell off yesterday. If you’re a CHF bear then you will be looking to buy some of this pair down here after yesterday’s 6 month high posting of 0.9568. If you think all the SNB rhetoric yesterday counts for nowt and were short then you’ll be happy to have seen the retracement and probably breathing a sigh of relief this morning.

Sellers of USD as Europe rolls in Posted: 15 Mar 2013 12:22 AM PDT I’m hearing decent size Asian buying of EURUSD is helping the move and the large 1.5150 option expiry on cable later is also a bit of a magnet.

GBP: Poll time Posted: 15 Mar 2013 12:09 AM PDT Continuing on a theme, and following chat room requests let’s have a poll where you get chance to be Mervyn King! Where do you think the Pound is “properly valued” ? Feel free to pick any pair or the Pound overall. As always reasons are welcome but not obligatory.

GBPUSD: Where from here? Posted: 15 Mar 2013 12:03 AM PDT It all depends on your overall view or current position I’m still a seller although entry level as always is key depending on your trading time frame. The chart shows the sharp recovery, and BOE King’s comments last night will be duly noted, but the Pound hasn’t come down simply because the BOE talked it down. It’s come down because the UK has shown a fundamental inability to deal its way out of the mire. Ok, devaluation talk has helped but overall we’re struggling to turn around our excessive glut of borrowing in the past 10 years. The economy is being starved of new money as I said in my radio interview with the BBC the other day. Without the banks lending money I don’t see how our economy can grow/deal itself out of the current position. The market will decide where it wants GBP to be. Not Mr King, or you or I. Let’s see what today brings as a starter.

Has the BOE done with talking down the Pound? Posted: 14 Mar 2013 11:04 PM PDT Maybe they’ve just realised, as we all did some time ago, that a falling Pound doesn’t in fact help us too much as a nation of net importers Here’s BOE governor King’s comments from a speech given last night He says the Pound is now likely to be properly valued

UK Press: The round-up Posted: 14 Mar 2013 10:59 PM PDT and here’s your usual UK press snapshot courtesy of City am

Option expiries 10 am NY cut Posted: 14 Mar 2013 10:55 PM PDT Good day all ! Here’s today’s expiries USDJPY  94.35, 94.40, 94.50, 95.00, 95.80, 96.00, 96.10, 96.75 EURUSD 1.2900, 1.2920, 1.2950, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3180, 1.3195 GBPUSD 1.4900, 1.4950,1.5000, 1.5030, 1.5150 EURGBP   0.8755 AUDUSD  1.0125, 1.0225, 1.0250, 1.0320, 1.0370, 1.0380 USDCHF 0.9350, 0.9450, 0.9550 EURJPY  123.50, 124.70 EURCHF 1.2200, 1.2315, 1.2400

Japanese finmin Aso is still having comments reported: QE alone cant beat deflation Posted: 14 Mar 2013 10:11 PM PDT Also: Creating demand is mainly the job of the government Need to create real demand to end deflation

ForexLive Asia wrap: New leadership at the BOJ approved by the Japanese parliament Posted: 14 Mar 2013 09:59 PM PDT All three of PM Abe's nominees (Kuroda as head, Nakaso and Iwata as deputies) for the leadership positions at the BOJ were approved by the Japanese upper house today. All three begin on March 20. Kuroda will need parliamentary approval again from April 8 (see final section of this post) Japan Cabinet Office upgraded its assessment of the economy for the third consecutive month Goldman's Jim O'Neill on Bloomberg TV said he doesn't expect 'draconian tightening' in China, and that Chinese markets are likely to recover Li Keqiang formally elected as China Premier by the national People's Congress Juncker was reported as saying he sees Cyprus problem resolved this weekend FT article: Merv King says sterling's fall has gone far enough New Zealand March ANZ Consumer Confidence -5.1% m/m (vs. +2.3% m/m prior) (New Zealand March ANZ Consumer Confidence 114.8 (vs. 121.0 prior)) New Zealand February Manufacturing PMI 56.3 (vs. 55.2 prior) Currency rates stayed in very small ranges today, even the big news of all three of Abe's BOJ appointments receiving parliamentary assent having little impact. On the upper house vote news confirming all three appointments USD/JPY popped from around 96.10 to a high of 96.28 before falling over the next 15 minutes to a low of 95.88. It soon settled around 96.05/10 then traded back toward its highs as of writing this wrap. GBP/USD sat around 1.5090 for the day after its good move higher. EUR/USD had a very narrow range but did look a little better bid overall, up around 1.3020 as of writing. AUD/USD was dead, littel more than a 10 point range for much of the day. NZD/USD little better, straddling 0.8200 for the session.

Japan press: China’s new leaders face myriad challenges Posted: 14 Mar 2013 09:59 PM PDT Some intresting weekend reading (or pre-weekend reading if you’re keen) from the Asahi Shimbun: China’s new leaders face myriad challenges

Japan’s finmin Aso again: Says only boosting the monetary base will not boost the Japanese economy Posted: 14 Mar 2013 09:30 PM PDT Also: Leaving specific policies up to the BOJ Trust would be damaged if the BOJ was seen to ne monetizing debt Must build on BOJ measures with other economic measures

Reuters article: Slightly more ‘growth-friendly’ EU summit Posted: 14 Mar 2013 09:29 PM PDT Ahead of day-two of the summit in Brussels, a bit of background reading: France, Italy see leeway on budget rules at EU summit France and Italy won support for a slightly more growth-friendly interpretation of European Union budget rules at a summit on Thursday after French President Francois Hollande challenged German-driven fiscal austerity.

New Zealand drought the worst in 30 years Posted: 14 Mar 2013 08:59 PM PDT A Bloomberg report says: New Zealand is experiencing its most widespread drought in at least 30 years, the government said today, as dry conditions across the North Island threaten economic growth and cause global milk prices to rise. Finance Minister Bill English warned the drought may slow economic expansion BNZ economists lowered their projection for H1 economic growth to 1.1% from 1.3% because of the drought Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. (FCG), the world's biggest dairy exporter, cut its forecast for milk collection Worst New Zealand Drought in 30 Years Weighs on Economic Growth

Link to today’s KPMG report: Demystifying Chinese Investment in Australia: Update March 2013 Posted: 14 Mar 2013 08:46 PM PDT Main points: For 2012, Chinese investment in Canada = $US21.3b 2012 Chinese investment in the US = $US14.7b 2012 Australia = $US10.5b Chinese direct investment into Australia +21% y/y in 2012 Chinese investment diversifying away from mining Increasingly into energy and other sectors Investment by private Chinese companies, not state owned enterprises is increasing Link to full report (PDF): Demystifying Chinese Investment in Australia: Update March 2013

Sakakibara (Mr. Yen): Comeback of US economy is ‘real this time’ – and it will continue in the coming 2 – 3 years Posted: 14 Mar 2013 08:26 PM PDT Also: USD to continue very strong against other currencies

Citibank says no RBA rate hike in 2013 Posted: 14 Mar 2013 08:18 PM PDT After yesterday’s blow-out employment figures, chatter in the market has begun already about the potential for an RBA rate hike. Seems a bit premature, it was only one month’s figures, but there you go. Citibank, however, says no rate hike this year: China growth concerns High $A Concern about the slow pace of the shift in the Australian economy from mining to on-resource sectors – (Oh. And something else – not mentioned by Citibank – there’s an election due later this year – September 14 – and a certain RBA Governor wants another term. Wouldn’t want to hike rates under those circumstances now, would we? )

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