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• Cyprus: Government looking to introduce a tax-free threshold on levy for smaller deposits
• EURJPY – buyers return but offers seen nearby
• Cyprus: bond yields surge higher
• ECB’s Asmussen: Cyprus systematically relevant for all of Eurozone
• ECB’s Asmussen still sees fragmentation of EMU financial assets
• Italian global Trade Balance Jan: EUR-1.62 bln vs EUR +2.16 bln prev
• Cyprus: Putin says the levy is unfair, unprofessional and dangerous
• EURUSD: a tale of two halves
• Cyprus: Russian dep fin min says proposed levy is fair
• European equity markets- all lower
• Order board: EURUSD
• Trading ideas
• Bunds higher, BTP’s lower
• European equity futures all lower
• Cyprus : Russia has made no decision yet on loan extension
• ForexLive rate feed – technical issues
• UK press: other news
• Option expiries 10 am NY cut
• A few early thoughts – fear of contagion is back
• ForexLive Asia wrap: Monday morning madness the fallout from ECB/Cyprus government cash grab

Cyprus: Government looking to introduce a tax-free threshold on levy for smaller deposits Posted: 18 Mar 2013 02:45 AM PDT The level of which is still under discussion govt sources quoted on reuters

EURJPY – buyers return but offers seen nearby Posted: 18 Mar 2013 02:24 AM PDT This pair has seen some concerted buying in the event of  no immediate further fall-out to the bail-out. Also giving support to USDJPY currently at 95.02. I’m hearing talk of some sell orders around 123.45-55 waiting any further rally. Sell orders also on USDJPY at 95.30-40

Cyprus: bond yields surge higher Posted: 18 Mar 2013 02:16 AM PDT June 2103 currently 70% 2020 up to 10.4%

ECB’s Asmussen: Cyprus systematically relevant for all of Eurozone Posted: 18 Mar 2013 02:08 AM PDT says Cyprus government can change bail-out terms if total sum remains the same says Cyprus insolvency could hit Ireland, Greece and Portugal No such thing as  risk-free bailout for Cyprus ECB did not determine terms of bail-out

ECB’s Asmussen still sees fragmentation of EMU financial assets Posted: 18 Mar 2013 02:07 AM PDT On the wires

Italian global Trade Balance Jan: EUR-1.62 bln vs EUR +2.16 bln prev Posted: 18 Mar 2013 02:05 AM PDT eu balance  euro -0.663 bln vs euro +1.155 prev

Cyprus: Putin says the levy is unfair, unprofessional and dangerous Posted: 18 Mar 2013 01:41 AM PDT The russian president definitely on the side of his friends at home

EURUSD: a tale of two halves Posted: 18 Mar 2013 01:30 AM PDT Now that’s what I call a gap Early european buying so far up to the split level around 1.2945.

Cyprus: Russian dep fin min says proposed levy is fair Posted: 18 Mar 2013 01:14 AM PDT also says he does not pity russian business Mr Shatalov on reuters Not going to win him many friends at home.. His surname may be quite poignant.

European equity markets- all lower Posted: 18 Mar 2013 01:08 AM PDT FTSE – 1.6% DAX  – 1.7% CAC40 -2.1% IBEX – 2.9% FTMIB  -2.8%

Order board: EURUSD Posted: 18 Mar 2013 01:04 AM PDT Ok, here’s what I’ve managed to glean so far offers 1.2930,1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3025, 1.3050, 1.3130-35, ( stop loss buying if 1.3140 is breached) bids  1.2880,1.2860, 1.2850 (option barrier), 1.2830, 1.2800  ( stop loss selling if 1.2790 breached )

Trading ideas Posted: 18 Mar 2013 12:22 AM PDT While we’re waiting to see whether europe is coming out to play today why not post your trading ideas here. After last night’s gap and subsequent stand-still the jury is still firmly out so let’s hear your thoughts. As always reasons are welcome but not obligatory.

Bunds higher, BTP’s lower Posted: 18 Mar 2013 12:15 AM PDT German bunds finding safe haven status, up 108 at 144.47 Italian btp’s lower by 107 at 157.80

European equity futures all lower Posted: 18 Mar 2013 12:11 AM PDT Eurostoxx50 down 3.1% Dax futures down 2% Cac40 futures down 2.1% No surprises here

Cyprus : Russia has made no decision yet on loan extension Posted: 17 Mar 2013 11:56 PM PDT or investors’ participation in cypriot banks recapitalization Reuters quoting a government source Russia’s loan to cyprus is currently EUR 2.5 bln

ForexLive rate feed – technical issues Posted: 17 Mar 2013 11:26 PM PDT Further to Eamonn’s post in the comments section earlier, and mine just now, I have just reported this issue again and I am assured it is being dealt with. Seems like it’s not only traders affected by the gap down in prices last night ! Apologies for any inconvenience.

UK press: other news Posted: 17 Mar 2013 11:08 PM PDT Here’s a quick summary of other news that the papers are running with this morning

Option expiries 10 am NY cut Posted: 17 Mar 2013 11:04 PM PDT EURUSD 1.3000, 1.3055,1.3060,1.3100,1.31901.3200 USDJPY 95.70,09.00,96.05,96.50,97.00 GBPUSD 1.4800,1.4900,1.5000,1.5100,1.5250 AUDUSD 1.0400,1.0425,1.0430

A few early thoughts – fear of contagion is back Posted: 17 Mar 2013 10:45 PM PDT Good day everyone. Fun and games after the Cyprus bail-out shock eh? As I posted yesterday I think the real agenda for the levy is political but nonetheless the mere idea that it can be imposed at all has rightly sent waves of uncertainty through the markets, There was little doubt surely that the euro would gap lower, and understandable that asia would do little more afterwards, quite rightly waiting to see what happens on europe’s opening. One of last year’s buzz words as the eurozone crisis deepened was contagion as markets feared a run on banks by depositers, and the word is now firmly back in play. What markets are waiting to see now is not what the Cyprus parliament does in ratifying the agreement or how long it takes ( although the uncertainty will have its own effect of course ) but whether the outflow of euros from legitimate and not so legitimate sources, creates the panic and run on the banks that many had thought behind us. And the contagion need not necessarily be restricted to the euro. Moody’s concerns will help fan the flames that some banks are destined to go under and no doubt we will have plenty of rhetoric today from politicians and bankers alike hitting the wires, but it is joe public in their possible rush to secure their funds who may yet still have the final say. EURUSD may have stopped so far on strong techical support around 1.2885 but it’s not the charts that are going to ultimately determine the euro’s fate.

ForexLive Asia wrap: Monday morning madness the fallout from ECB/Cyprus government cash grab Posted: 17 Mar 2013 09:39 PM PDT Weekend news of the ECB/Cyrus bail-out deal As it stands, deposits in Cypriot banks below 100,000 euro will be taxed at 6.7% Deposits over 100,000 euro will be taxed at 9.9% Some talk that negotiations are underway to change these percentages to 3% and 12.5% respectively In return for forfeiture of their money (referred to as the 'Stability Levy'), depositors will receive bank equity Corporate tax to jump from 10% to 12.5% An emergency parliamentary sitting to vote on the package was scheduled for Sunday, but has been postponed to Monday Monday is a pre-existing bank holiday, and Tuesday has been declared a bank holiday. There is talk Wednesday could be declared a bank holiday too. Cypriot people queued at ATMs to withdraw cash over the weekend so as to avoid some or all of the tax Moody’s said the bail-out has negative credit implications Chinese Premier Li plans for 7.5% economic growth per year through to 2020 Euro Finance Ministers Grant Ireland, Portugal Eased Debt Terms New Zealand Q1 Westpac Consumer Sentiment 110.8 (vs. 111.1 prior) China February home prices up 2.1% The news over the weekend and into Monday morning was the ECB/Cypriot government seizing a portion of bank deposits (in exchange for equity in the banks). Cyprus is a tiny country, the numbers of people affected small by comparison with Europe's population, but it was the method – the skimming of cash from people's bank deposits that sent a chill through the markets. The reaction was swift, EUR/USD gapped from around a 1.3050 close in North America on Friday a hundred points lower and continued down to below 1.2900 before finding some support. The bounce was very limited though, it sits around 1.2910 as I type, awaiting Europe's entry into the marketplace. USD/JPY gapped lower too, trading just above 94.00 before retracing some of the gap toward 95.00 and settling around 94.60/70 into the afternoon. AUD and NZD, too opened lower before sitting in narrow ranges for the rest of the session. GBP/USD found support again below 1.5080. Gold gapped a little higher in the early morning but retraced most of its gains to be just below $1600 as I write.

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