Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• Italian Industrial Output jan: m/m +0.8% vs -0.3% exp
• GBPUSD moves lower but finds buyers above 1.5070
• UK inflation: the Old Lady’s on-going dilemma
• Order board: EURUSD
• ECB’s Draghi: Financial integration essential to make europe stronger
• BOJ’s Shirakawa: dangerous to think central banks can control market moves with words
• Trading ideas
• Cyprus: stock exchange to remain closed while banks are shut
• Cyprus: French fin min says eurozone can not lend any more than current deal
• Cyprus: Fitch places banks on negative watch
• UK inflation data is released at 09.30 gmt
• Nikkei closes higher at 12,468.23
• Cyprus: reports circulate that parliament is unlikely to approve bail-out levy
• UK government avoids a showdown over press regulation
• UK press: A quick round up
• Option expiries 10 am NY cut
• Data: Japan January final Leading Index 95.0 (vs. 96.3 prior)
• ForexLive Asia wrap: Yen weakens today as BOJ leadership transition begins
• U.S. contractor charged with passing nuclear secrets to Chinese woman
• More on the impact on gold of the Cyprus events – why isn’t the gold price higher?

Italian Industrial Output jan: m/m +0.8% vs -0.3% exp Posted: 19 Mar 2013 02:00 AM PDT revised down to +0.2% previously y/y -3.6%   %   vs  -5.6% exp    revised to -7.4% prev

GBPUSD moves lower but finds buyers above 1.5070 Posted: 19 Mar 2013 01:58 AM PDT Cable has been drifting lower all morning following EURUSD. Decent support at 1.5070 is attracting a few buyers but expect stop-loss selling if this level is breached.

UK inflation: the Old Lady’s on-going dilemma Posted: 19 Mar 2013 01:47 AM PDT As we await the UK inflation data at 09.30 gmt let’s remember that the BOE has a major on-going headache. They’ve wanted the pound lower but: a lower pound = more expensive imports =  higher prices for goods = inflation Raising interest rates to fight inflation = more expensive borrowing costs for industry and private individual = less investment = less growth If we see a reduced inflation number today then we must look to see whether that is a sign of weaker demand in the uk economy. Either way the BOE and government have a problem which is not going away anytime soon.

Order board: EURUSD Posted: 19 Mar 2013 01:12 AM PDT offers  1.2955,1.2970,1.2980-00, ( stop loss buying if 1.3005 breached), 1.3015, 1.3050,1.3075 bids  1.2925, 1.2900, 1.2885, 1.2860, 1.2850 ( option barrier)

ECB’s Draghi: Financial integration essential to make europe stronger Posted: 19 Mar 2013 01:08 AM PDT ECB president on the wires financial market integration improves function of national systems ECB finding most effective tools to ease fragmentation

BOJ’s Shirakawa: dangerous to think central banks can control market moves with words Posted: 19 Mar 2013 01:04 AM PDT a certain irony there given the amount of words we get each day from japan the outgoing BOJ governor is giving his farewell speech says link between base money and inflation is broken as seen in japan’s past experience says govt fiscal discipline efforts are needed to ensure market trust in japan’s finances

Trading ideas Posted: 19 Mar 2013 12:58 AM PDT Ok, while we still appear stuck to the spot ( pun intended ) why not pass the time by throwing your trading ideas into this thread. As usual, reasons welcome/helpful to others but not obligatory

Cyprus: stock exchange to remain closed while banks are shut Posted: 19 Mar 2013 12:39 AM PDT on reuters

Cyprus: French fin min says eurozone can not lend any more than current deal Posted: 19 Mar 2013 12:38 AM PDT on reuters otherwise Cyprus debt would be too large he says in favour of only taxing deposits over 100k but it’s up to cyprus to decide need to see greater transparency in cypriot banking system

Cyprus: Fitch places banks on negative watch Posted: 19 Mar 2013 12:02 AM PDT Bank of Cyprus, Cyprus Popular Bank, and Hellenic Bank downside rating risks arising from the deliberations to impose losses onto the banks’ depositors No great surprise

UK inflation data is released at 09.30 gmt Posted: 18 Mar 2013 11:45 PM PDT Here’s one take of what we might expect

Nikkei closes higher at 12,468.23 Posted: 18 Mar 2013 11:15 PM PDT + 247.60 points/2.03% on the day

Cyprus: reports circulate that parliament is unlikely to approve bail-out levy Posted: 18 Mar 2013 11:13 PM PDT Not sure how long this has been out there but there are reports that a cypriot government spokesman says that parliament is unlikely to approve the bank deposit levy and that they continue to seek ways to limit the fall-out on smaller deposits. Would help explain cap on further euro advances for the moment

UK government avoids a showdown over press regulation Posted: 18 Mar 2013 11:03 PM PDT Last week I reported that the coalition government was becoming increasingly fractured and faced an embarassing split in the vote on press regulation with Liberal Democrats siding with the opposition Labour party. The press regulation story is an emotional one here in the UK following the long investigations last year into phone hacking by journalists that went way beyond anything that could be considered in the public interest. The three main parties have now had a huddle and agreed on a compromise deal but have done little to earn any respect for their endeavours. Here’s a couple of takes on the outcome Press regualtion deal done by parties Cartels of politicians do not serve public interest

UK press: A quick round up Posted: 18 Mar 2013 10:50 PM PDT what the papers say on non-fx matters

Option expiries 10 am NY cut Posted: 18 Mar 2013 10:33 PM PDT Good day everyone Here’s today’s option expiries USDJPY 94.20,94.30,94.50,95.00,95.25,95.60,96.00,96.50 EURUSD 1.2900,1.2925,1.3000,1.3065,1.3140,1.3150 GBPUSD 1.5000,1.5100,1.5170 AUDUSD 1.0330,1.0400,1.0425

Data: Japan January final Leading Index 95.0 (vs. 96.3 prior) Posted: 18 Mar 2013 10:04 PM PDT The January Final Coincident Index is 91.6 (vs. 92.0)

ForexLive Asia wrap: Yen weakens today as BOJ leadership transition begins Posted: 18 Mar 2013 10:01 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today: Cyprus state TV (RIK) reports revised deposit tax would exempt savers with deposits under €20,000 RBA's Debelle: Offshore demand for $A government bonds remain strong RBA's Lowe – says there are tentative signs of lower interest rates starting to boost housing, asset prices, consumption (and more from Lowe) Australian Business Confidence: Roy Morgan survey at the highest level since April 2011 RBA March policy meeting minutes: Economy responding to low rates, repeats there is scope to cut  (more here, including a link to the full minutes) – the minutes also signaled rates are "clearly below normal" levels New Zealand finance minister English: New Zealand dollar is overvalued Conference Board China Leading Economic Index +1.3% in February China's February foreign direct investment +6.3% y/y (increase for the first time in 9 months) Yen was the only mover in Asia today, with USD/JPY steadily marching higher to 95.75 (EUR/JPY to 124.13) before settling into a tight range around 95.55 (and 123.85). Kuroda begins his new role as BOJ head tomorrow. there is still talk of an ‘emergency’ meeting sometime ahead of the scheduled April 3 and 4 policy-setting meeting. NZD/USD took a quick 15 point loss on finance minister English’s comments, but there was no follow-through and it settled around 1.8250. AUD/USD, too, had a quiet session in a tight range. EUR/USD was in a 20-point range for the day. A vote in the Cypriot parliament is due during the European session. GBP/USD, too, was sideways for today ahead of the raft of data releases due there in the UK day.

U.S. contractor charged with passing nuclear secrets to Chinese woman Posted: 18 Mar 2013 09:41 PM PDT A U.S. defence contractor in Hawaii has been arrested on charges of passing national defence secrets, including classified information about nuclear weapons, to a Chinese woman with whom he was romantically involved, authorities said on Monday. U.S. Treasury secretary Lew’s in China, he should ask for an explanation while he’s there. Reuters

More on the impact on gold of the Cyprus events – why isn’t the gold price higher? Posted: 18 Mar 2013 08:38 PM PDT An article in the Financial Review (Cyprus tax may bode well for gold: Vulpes … gated) quotes a portfolio manager at Singapore-based hedge fund Vulpes Investment Management saying: the proposed violation of the deposit insurance scheme had "crossed the Rubicon". "The very fact that is a potential solution for them should resonate in everyone's minds," he said. "Everyone in Greece and Spain who isn't taking money out of the bank today and putting it in gold or a UK bank or German bank is frankly out of their mind." While I wouldn’t put it in the same sort of words, I thought gold would be higher. I am surprised it isn’t (well it has a bit but I thought it would have gone much higher than it has). Maybe the market has had time to get long now? Any thoughts welcome.

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