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Eurozone current a/c balance jan : s/a EUR+14.8 bln vs +16 bln dec
Cable: next support seen at 1.5010
Cable sharply lower: strong support at 1.5070 breached
BOE MPC minutes: a little light reading ahead of today’s release
Cyprus: interior min says no chance of exiting eurozone
Order board: EURUSD
European equities open higher
Cyprus: Fin min Sarris to hold press conference at 10.00 gmt
EURUSD higher: sovereign names cited
Cyprus: fin min says he hopes for russian loan extension deal today
German producer prices feb: m/m -0.1 % vs +0.2% exp
Coming up in the european morning session
UK Budget speech: what we can expect
Option expiries 10 am NY cut
Louise Cooper: Hey George, be bold and let businesses do the heavy budget lifting
ForexLive Asia wrap: Quiet market on a Tokyo holiday
Australia: BREE report forecasts 2014-15 peak in minerals exports
New Zealand finance minister English: Agrees with IMF, NZD intervention would be futile
New Zealand finance minister English: NZD about 15% overvalued according to RBNZ
New Zealand finance minister English: Drought may reduce pressure on rates

Eurozone current a/c balance jan : s/a EUR+14.8 bln vs +16 bln dec

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 02:05 AM PDT

non s/a EUR-4.5 bln vs +29 bln dec

Cable: next support seen at 1.5010

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Cable sharply lower: strong support at 1.5070 breached

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 01:48 AM PDT

Talk of a us investment house being a big seller but still tryng to find out why other than stop-losses being triggered

Low posted 1.5040 ( for the benefit of our readers not at their screens )

BOE MPC minutes: a little light reading ahead of today’s release

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 01:34 AM PDT

while we wait for the latest minutes at 09.30 gmt here’s the last set for those of you in need of something to read over a coffee or three.

Cyprus: interior min says no chance of exiting eurozone

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 01:30 AM PDT

newswires reporting again but we heard already yesterday

EUR finding buyers though

EURUSD posts 1.2916

Order board: EURUSD

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 01:25 AM PDT

offers 1.2920, 1.2960-70, 1.2990-1.3000,(stop loss buying if 1.3005 breached ), 1.3050,1.3075
bids 1.2885, 1.2850, 1.2825, 1.2800

European equities open higher

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 01:21 AM PDT

FTSE +0.4%
DAX +0.6%
CAC40 +0.7%
IBEX +1%
FTMIB +0.9%

Cyprus: Fin min Sarris to hold press conference at 10.00 gmt

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 01:03 AM PDT

on the wires. unconfirmed as yet

EURUSD higher: sovereign names cited

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 12:48 AM PDT

sovereign names buying a few around 1.2890
next resistance at 1.29200

Cyprus: fin min says he hopes for russian loan extension deal today

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 12:09 AM PDT

on reuters
this is for the EUR 2.5 bln loan they already had in place prior to the bail-out

I don’t see how russia could possibly say no.

This will be the very least they do to help at this time given their huge vested interest.

German producer prices feb: m/m -0.1 % vs +0.2% exp

Posted: 20 Mar 2013 12:00 AM PDT

+0.8% prev
y/y +1.2 % vs +1.5% exp +1.7% prev

Coming up in the european morning session

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 11:26 PM PDT

The uk budget speech may or may not have any impact but in any case it will be overshadowed by the ongoing farce that is the cyprus bailout negotiations.

It would be funny if it didn’t have such potential fall-out for the eurozone and elsewhere. There is more to this than just helping a tiny island in the mediterranean and could well be a game-changer.

Anyhow, we will be having another raft of rhetoric to keep us on our toes but I see no conclusion for a while yet.

And we have the BOE minutes from the last mpc meeting out at the same time as uk unemployment so expect the pound to be lively in this session too.

Data coming up: GMT

07.00 – German producer prices

09.30- UK BOE minutes

09.30- UK unemployment/claimant count

UK Budget speech 12.30 gmt

UK Budget speech: what we can expect

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 11:00 PM PDT

The UK budget speech is up at 12.30 gmt today. The speech is not normally a real market mover for the pound but, given the recent uk downgrade and need for Chancellor Osborne to juggle highly sensitive economic and political balls, we can expect traders to take a keener interest than usual.

Further to Louise’s excellent piece here are a couple of other takes on what we might expect

Osborne’s last chance to restore growth

Budget 2013

Cuts, giveaways and grim forecasts

The chancellor’s challenges

Option expiries 10 am NY cut

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 10:30 PM PDT

Good day everyone,

I think the next couple of sessions might be a little livelier than what we’ve seen for the Asian zone.

Anyhow to kick things off here’s the option expiries

EURUSD 1.2800,1.2850,1.2870,1.2920,1.2950,1.3000,1.3050,1.3125,1.3250,1.3350,1.3360
USDJPY 94.00,95.00,95.20,95.25,95.75,96.00,
GBPUSD 1.5050,1.5100,1.5200
USDCHF 0.9450
AUDUSD 1.0245,1.0350,1.0400
EURJPY 121.00,125.00,125.20
EURCHF 1.2200,1.2400

Louise Cooper: Hey George, be bold and let businesses do the heavy budget lifting

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 10:12 PM PDT

Louise Cooper offers her advice and yours on how George Osborne can cut the UK deficit and salvage the economy.

George Osborne should take note of the lyrics of this 1983 hit. He needs to tempt businesses to take cash out of their pockets and put it to work in the economy. George, lay heavenly financial morsels in front of CEOs that they cannot resist. Because with the trend rate of growth for the UK economy approaching zero, "we can't keep on living like this".

Chancellor Osborne will be putting the finishing touches to his budget this weekend. Ministers will be badgering him for cash, but as the purse keeper of a deeply indebted state, he is never going to win any popularity contests.

Most predict this will be a slightly boring, steady-as-she-goes budget. Last year's fiasco on taxing Cornish pasties (a meat and pastry delicacy from the South West of England for the American readers) will ensure that. But he needs to become a tempter, the male version of temptress.

"Keep Climbing Higher and Higher" – summaries the debt picture of the UK, which is getting worse as GDP disappoints. Thus the government has few options fiscally.

"It’s just the high cost of living" Britons are heavily indebted, with wages rising slower than inflation. Therefore relying on consumer spending is misguided. However businesses have cash. Osborne needs to concentrate on inducing them to spend it. Lay out the bait, Chancellor, entrap CEOs into doing your job – boosting the economy.

So what do I think he should do?

Cut National Insurance completely for any new employee in the next 1-2 years for all small and medium sized businesses – tempt them to hire. Make it easier too – get rid of as much red tape as the EU allows.
Secondly entice businesses to buy the new IT system, to expand production, to upgrade their website. Whatever project they have been postponing, make it so attractive to invest, they can't help themselves. For two years, allow all new investments to be written off 100% against tax – that should cause Finance Directors to salivate. It may be costly but it will force firms to spend money jolting the economy off life support. Financial markets will be reassured that it is a short term measure.

You can take it or leave it

All Chancellors get besieged with budget advice, whether followed or not. I choose to ask Twitterers:

@AndrewDowson "fixing the roads would have many benefits"

Infrastructure spending is a good idea given the state of the UK's road and rail network and produces long term benefits, boosting productivity if well chosen. However UK pension fund restrictions on asset liability matching and liquidity regulations, may prevent them investing in such projects. Risible given many overseas sovereign wealth funds seem keen and pension funds are desperate for yield.

@Shireblogger "re-boot banks, increase real incomes, mass Prozac helicopter drop".

The amount of corporate insolvencies is at exceedingly low levels suggesting zombie companies propped up by zombie banks. Both Mark Carney and Mervyn King have both stressed the need to recapitalise weak banks but this is highly unpopular politically.

@PaddyBriggs ".. the elephant in the room is inflation. Over history governments have inflated their way out of difficulties and deficits.. it must be tempting"

In one of the few leaks ahead of this budget, the Bank of England is expected be given a more flexible inflation target although we are a long way away from helicopter money. Markets and Britons are expecting higher inflation in the years to come.

@connarmcbain "scrap the green agenda, invest in shale and slash taxes"

The desire to make the energy production of this country greener is causing energy bills to increase. Reversing this would put more cash into household budgets and reduce inflation. But given Cameron's promises, such a U-turn is tough politically and bad for the industrial relations. On shale gas, it is becoming increasingly clear that American businesses are benefitting significantly from lower energy costs. We should be doing the same for British business.

@GeorgesJDanton "Stop deluding ourselves that we are actively lowering the deficit and acceptance of fiscal reality please"

Politicians of every hue succumb to the temptation of obfuscating the debt picture during troubled times. Osborne has already started along this path in his December Autumn Statement. Expect more.

Trouble is coming

Patience is needed for the UK's economy to recover from the seismic shock of the financial crisis. The Chancellor is constrained on almost every side; financially thanks to the huge amounts of debt; politically partly because of the coalition, and partly because some of the things that need to be done – like recapitalising banks are deeply unpopular; on supply side reforms thanks to European laws. But more of the same is clearly not working. He lacks a vision of the economy he wishes to create. He needs to be bolder, although I doubt he will be.

There are some nightmare scenarios that can be painted for the UK and Sterling weakness is an indication that some of them are already weighing on investor's minds.

For an economy with a demand problem, Temptation is the ideal song choice.

Come on George lead us into "Temptation".

ForexLive Asia wrap: Quiet market on a Tokyo holiday

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 09:53 PM PDT

The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today

Cypriot parliamentarian Mavrides on BBC TV: If remaining 6bn euro cant be raised, Cyprus might leave euro
Australia: Westpac/MI January Leading Index +0.3% (vs. +0.3% prior)
Australia: DEWR February Skilled Vacancies 1.5% (vs. -0.7% prior)
Merrill Lynch lowers China GDP forecast for 2013, from 8.1% to 8%
New Zealand total job vacancies fell 3% in February
New Zealand online skilled job vacancies fell 2.5% in February
New Zealand Q4 Current Account -3.255B (vs. -2.95B expected)
New Zealand Q4 Current Account to GDP ratio -5.0% (vs. -4.9% expected)
South Korea mulling a supplementary budget to help slowing economy
Trichet: No element of contagion from the Cyprus crisis, as Cyprus is a very special case
New Zealand finance minister English said the NZD about 15% overvalued according to RBNZ, and that he agrees with IMF, NZD intervention would be futile
Sydney to host G20 finance ministers meeting February 21 – 23, 2014
PBOC to allow QFIIS to invest in interbank bond market

The session today was disappointingly quiet for currency movements after all the activity in Europe and the Americas overnight. Tokyo was on a holiday today, reducing liquidity in the markets and, seemingly, any appetite for action.

Yen had some movement early on, ticking toward 95.20 before falling away to 94.80/85 and stabilizing then for the session.

AUD found support below 1.0355, fetting back to 1.0380 in the afternoon.

NZD weakened marginally, Bill English's comments having only limited effect.

EUR/USD had a 15-point range, sitting just above last night's lows as we go into Europe awaiting more turmoil out of Cyprus.

Australia: BREE report forecasts 2014-15 peak in minerals exports

Posted: 19 Mar 2013 09:49 PM PDT

The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics in Australia released their Resources and Energy Quarterly–March Quarter 2013 report today:

Shipments of LNG will overtake coal within five years
Resources and energy commodity exports are forecast to drop 6 per cent to $186 billion this year
Export prices falling

"A forecast fall in the prices of key Australian mineral exports from their peaks in 2011, coupled with a high Australian dollar, is expected to result in a 3 per cent decline in the nominal export value of resources and energy exports in 2012-13, relative to 2011-12,"

Link