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• Italian consumer confidence march: 85.2 vs 85.5 exp
• Order board: GBPUSD
• Cyprus: Chair of cypriot finance committee believes large depositors will lose 30%
• Order board: EURUSD
• European equities open higher
• AUDUSD: rally fails ahead of 1.0475 barrier
• EURUSD back down through 1.3000
• After the bail-out: a few early thoughts
• Moodys says French banking system remains on negative outlook despite improvements
• Nikkei closes up 1.6% at 12,546.46
• Option expiries10 am NY cut
• ForexLive Asia wrap: EU-IMF-ECB-Cyprus agree on deal; big losses for big depositors, haircuts for bondholders
• Cyprus: “This is a watershed event. We are entering a new world where deposits are no longer safe.”
• RBA head Glenn Stevens speaking tomorrow
• Greek press on the Cyprus bail-out
• Japan’s Nakao is the sole nominee for presidency of the ADB
• FT: Cyprus deal buoys Asian markets
• Canada finance minister Flaherty speaking from 0430GMT
• Australian Financial Review: Aussies a bunch of ‘whingeing Poms’, say Brits
• Japan’s finance Minister Aso: Raising the consumption tax is needed to keep the trust of markets

Italian consumer confidence march: 85.2 vs 85.5 exp Posted: 25 Mar 2013 02:00 AM PDT 86 previously

Order board: GBPUSD Posted: 25 Mar 2013 01:54 AM PDT offers  1.5250, 1.5280, 1.5300, 1.5320, 1.5350 bids  1.5190 ( stop loss selling if breached), 1.5165, 1.5125, 1.5100

Cyprus: Chair of cypriot finance committee believes large depositors will lose 30% Posted: 25 Mar 2013 01:26 AM PDT Ouch.

Order board: EURUSD Posted: 25 Mar 2013 01:07 AM PDT offers 1.3050,1.3075-85,1.3100-10,1.3130 bids 1.2985, 1.2950,1.2895,1.2880,(stop loss selling if 1.2870 breached),1.2840

European equities open higher Posted: 25 Mar 2013 01:03 AM PDT FTSE  +0.6% DAX  +1% CAC40 + 1.5% IBEX +1.4% FTMIB +1.1%

AUDUSD: rally fails ahead of 1.0475 barrier Posted: 25 Mar 2013 12:55 AM PDT The impressive AUDUSD rally has paused for breath ahead of a widely reported barrier option interest at 1.0475. Buying dips still looks to be the play though.

EURUSD back down through 1.3000 Posted: 25 Mar 2013 12:37 AM PDT Widely touted sell orders /resistance at 1.3050-70 capping the post bail-out rally Asian sovereign seen selling on the way down heavily through 1.3030

After the bail-out: a few early thoughts Posted: 25 Mar 2013 12:07 AM PDT The deal to bail out Cyprus raises more questions moving forward than it currently answers. Ok, so germany have got their pound of political flesh out of larger depositors but at a threshold of €100k there will be plenty of honest money involved too, and should rightly make others around the Eurozone just a little bit nervous about their own bank deposits. And what of the Russians? There was plenty of conspiracy theory over the week-end that they had deliberately refused any further aid to Cyprus in the hope that the little island would just implode and exit the eurozone. At which point they ( the Russians ) would come in, seize assets by default including the gas reserves and get themselves a much desired warm water port for good measure.Then there is the matter of whether we get russian reprisals against germany for what they will see as a deliberate targeting of their country's alleged less than clean cypriot "investment". I can understand an immediate demand for euros as a sigh of relief perhaps but the fall-out from this deal is yet to be fully understood, and I'm not convinced at this early stage that buying euros is such a great idea overall. The eurozone is not without its own recently re-visited problems after all so this may well become a buy USD play as a safe haven given further impetus by the slowing down of the US monetary presses, and/or maybe gold finally gets the nod again. The pound still has problems of its own including our own bank capitalization issues, and we are inextricably linked  to the fate of the eurozone. So approach this week with caution, take nothing for granted and stay flexible on view. There are more twists to come for sure.

Moodys says French banking system remains on negative outlook despite improvements Posted: 24 Mar 2013 11:26 PM PDT reuters EURUSD slightly lower at 1.3031

Nikkei closes up 1.6% at 12,546.46 Posted: 24 Mar 2013 11:03 PM PDT +207.93

Option expiries10 am NY cut Posted: 24 Mar 2013 10:28 PM PDT Good day everyone, While I get my 05.00 gmt head around the cypriot debacle deal here’s your daily fix of expiries USDJPY 92.00,93.00,94.00,94.15,96.00,95.50,95.60 EURUSD 1.2640,1.2800,1.2825,1.2900,1.2950,1.3000,1.3125 GBPUSD 1.5000,1.5100,1.5200 AUDUSD 1.0350,1.0360, 1.0400, 1.0450

ForexLive Asia wrap: EU-IMF-ECB-Cyprus agree on deal; big losses for big depositors, haircuts for bondholders Posted: 24 Mar 2013 09:58 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today A deal on Cyprus was hammered out: Setting up a "good bank" and a "bad bank" Popular Bank of Cyprus, known as Laiki, will effectively be shut down Deposits below 100,000 euros in Laiki will be transferred to Bank of Cyprus Deposits above 100,000 euros in Laiki, which under EU law are not insured, will be frozen and will be used to resolve debt(the extent of depositor losses are still to be determined) Plan does not need the approval of the Cypriot parliament, but may need approval of the Bundestag Moody's – Cyprus remains at risk of exit from the euro Moody's – Cyprus crisis is a credit negative for all Euro sovereigns The Eurogroup Statement on Cyprus (PDF) (see page 3 'Annex' for details) Japan PM Abe to hold talks with EU later today; to begin free-trade talks, but will also get an explanation of the Cyprus bail-out UK: Hometrack March Housing Survey +0.3% m/m (vs. 0.1% prior) UK: Hometrack March Housing Survey 0.0% y/y (vs. -0.1% prior) The lack of progress on Friday and the weekend over the Cypriot bail-out-in saw EUR/USD move lower on early Monday morning, down to around 1.2940/50. EUR swung around, albeit in a narrow range, responding to rumours as they came of Brussels. It moved higher as more liquidity came into the market and then jumped on news that a resolution had been reached (details in bullets, above). It tested towards 1.3050, running into sellers there and settled into a very quiet rest of the day around 1.3030. USD/JPY opened lower but almost immediately found bidders. It ticked higher through the course of Monday morning, jumping with EUR on the news of Cyprus agreement, running into offers above 94.90 and settling around 94.80. AUD, GBP and NZD all had a relatively quiet session.

Cyprus: “This is a watershed event. We are entering a new world where deposits are no longer safe.” Posted: 24 Mar 2013 09:53 PM PDT "Until [the weekend before last], "it was assumed that deposits were safe," says Nicolas Veron of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "This is a watershed event. We are entering a new world where deposits are no longer safe." This is the significance of what’s going on in Cyprus. What Veron and others fear is that, in a future financial crisis, retail depositors — worried that some of their supposedly guaranteed accounts would be confiscated — will stage bank runs, making the crisis worse. Note that Cyprus banks have been closed for 10 days now. ATM limits are down to 120 euro. Capital controls too – you can’t get your euros out of Cyprus (but you can transfer your euros from any other bank to any other bank in any other eurozone country – doesn’t this make the euro in Cyprus worth less than a euro elsewhere?) The article is in  Japanese newspaper … Interesting times indeed. Cyprus mess portends unsafe world for deposits

RBA head Glenn Stevens speaking tomorrow Posted: 24 Mar 2013 09:37 PM PDT No big lunch tomorrow, OK? RBA governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak at 3.45pm Sydney time (0445GMT) at the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) Annual Forum in Sydney.

Greek press on the Cyprus bail-out Posted: 24 Mar 2013 09:30 PM PDT From Eurogroup signs off on bailout agreement reached by Cyprus and troika Cyprus’ second largest lender, Cyprus Popular Bank (Laiki), will see deposits under 100,000 euros (which are guaranteed) being put into a good bank Non-performing loans and uninsured deposits will be placed in a bad bank, which will be liquidated over time. This should raise 4.2 billion euros The good bank will be merged with the country's largest lender, the Bank of Cyprus Uninsured deposits at BoC will face a haircut but none of the officials in Brussels were able to say how large it would be. Cypriot finance minister Sarris said that uninsured depositors, including pension funds, would receive equity in return for their savings as part of a recapitalization process; & that the Bank of Cyprus would take over the 9 billion euros of Emergency Liquidity Assistance that the ECB has provided to Laiki. Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsellbloem said it was likely that the ECB would continue providing liquidity to Bank of Cyprus from Monday. Deposits at other banks will not be taxed and none of the 10 billion euros Cyprus is to receive from the troika will be used to recapitalize its lenders. It is not clear when Cypriot banks will open again. The first bailout instalment is due in May. It is not clear how much this set of measures will raise but Dijsellbloem said it the original figure of 5.8 billion euros should be disregarded.

Japan’s Nakao is the sole nominee for presidency of the ADB Posted: 24 Mar 2013 09:23 PM PDT Japan’s Nakao is the sole nominee for presidency of the Asian Development Bank Newswire report Haruhiko Kuroda resigned as head of the ADB to take up the position of the new head of the BOJ.

FT: Cyprus deal buoys Asian markets Posted: 24 Mar 2013 09:14 PM PDT The Financial Times carries the sort of story European timezone traders will be waking up to: Cyprus deal buoys Asian markets (gated) EU ministers approved a deal providing a lifeline to Cyprus Deal will close the island's second-largest bank Will impose substantial losses on large depositors The pact should release a €10bn bailout package Helps Cyprus avoid bankruptcy Details of the bailout package have yet to emerge Analysts expect the rally to be short-lived as the EU still faces a lot of work to hammer out the specifics of the financial aid

Canada finance minister Flaherty speaking from 0430GMT Posted: 24 Mar 2013 08:54 PM PDT Canada’s finance minister Jim Flaherty is speaking in Hong Kong at the Asia Society at 0430GMT. the topic of his speech is ‘Canada’s Economic Action Plan’.

Australian Financial Review: Aussies a bunch of ‘whingeing Poms’, say Brits Posted: 24 Mar 2013 08:04 PM PDT The Australian Financial Review cites an article in an English newspaper: "While the rest of the world lurches from crisis to economic crisis, the land of Oz is powering ahead, enjoying an Aussie dollar at a record high, unemployment at near-record lows (5.4 per cent) and basking in more sunshine than the rest of us can dream up," the The Guardian's report said. Australians don’t know how lucky they are

Japan’s finance Minister Aso: Raising the consumption tax is needed to keep the trust of markets Posted: 24 Mar 2013 07:51 PM PDT Speaking in parliament

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