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Sunday, March 3, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

More on Beppe Grillo’s plans to take Italy out of the Euro

Posted: 03 Mar 2013 01:56 AM PST

A follow-up to the story I posted yesterday from the same newspaper.

It will surely be playing out on the Euro when markets re-open.

Sunday UK press

Posted: 03 Mar 2013 01:33 AM PST

Here’s a couple of articles of interest which I hope might be of interest for your Sunday morning reading

The first one is an interview ( albeit by the Conservative-friendly Sunday Telegraph ) in which PM David Cameron replies to the by-election concerns that I’ve highlighted here previously.

The second, by contrast, is some further background story on Italy’s Beppe Grillo

Data: China February Services PMI falls from January, in at 54.5 (vs. 56.2 prior)

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 07:09 PM PST

The non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index from the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

  • February came in at 54.5
  • vs. 56.2 in January

We get the HSBC Non-manufacturing PMI on Tuesday March 5 at 0045GMT.

ECB’s Coeure: Central banks cannot fix Europe’s sovereign debt crisis alone

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 07:09 PM PST

  • Says governments have a key role also
  • Governments have  no alternative but to reform and restoring sustainable public finances
  • Delaying reforms has costs attached to it

“A central bank can help to mitigate the impact of the crisis, but the steps it takes cannot be a permanent substitute for resolute action by governments,” Coeure said in a speech at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Reuters

Bloomberg

German Finance Minister Schaeuble: Eurogroup won’t be rushed into decision on Cyprus

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 07:09 PM PST

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble quoted in German newspaper Tagesspiegel on Sunday.

Eurogroup finance ministers are meeting on Monday. Cyprus will be one topic for discussion.

Asked if Cyprus was systemically relevant for Europe, Schaeuble said: “The ESM (European Stability Mechanism) Treaty requires a clear and resilient justification as a prerequisite for giving aid to a country. We are waiting for that.”
“But there are arguments in favour of classifying Cyprus as systemically relevant,” he added.

Reuters

Evernote hacked – password reset required

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 04:30 PM PST

For those who use Evernote (a great product/service) it appears there has been a hacking attempt. Evernote is requiring a password reset from customers.

I thought it was some sort of scam when I saw the email, but, no, its legitimate. Password reset was quick and easy.

More info:

ZDNet

Lifehacker

Some good advice on password security (click on pic to enlarge):

Saturday night’s all right for dancing

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 11:03 AM PST

For all of our northern hemisphere readers here’s a classic to warm you up before you head out tonight

For our friends in Asia and down-under I hope it serves as a nice kick into your day.

I shall be posting a UK press round up at some point tomorrow but in the meantime enjoy.

Crocodile stories don’t normally make you laugh

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 07:09 AM PST

but before I head out here’s one to make you smile

Crocodile spotted in River Thames

Have a great week-end.

More from the UK press –

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 06:49 AM PST

Yesterday’s awful Manufacturing PMI data of course the focus, along with the Eurozone unemployment figures, as indeed they were for us.

Sterling takes a pounding

UK Manufacturing triggers a slide in the pound

Manufacturing data adds to triple-dip recession fears

Eurozone unemployment hits new highs

Pressure builds on PM Cameron from within his own party

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 06:32 AM PST

Further to my overiew yesterday of the UK by-election result which highlighted areas of concern for the Conservative Party, here’s a piece in today’s The Independent  that’s worth a read.

Italian economist: Dont write off Italy

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 06:30 AM PST

This isn’t quite an optimistic article, but its not as pessimistic as some. Its worth a read for an alternative, more positive view of developments in Italy.

the political crisis may be a little easier to resolve than many think. Under the pressure of markets, Italian parties are likely to close ranks behind another technical prime minister, just as they did in November 2011 behind Monti.

I’m not sold. But we’ll see.

 

Xinhua News Agency reports: PBOC deputy governor says China ‘prepared for a currency war’

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 06:27 AM PST

PBOC Deputy Governor Yi Gang on Friday:

"China is prepared… In terms of both monetary policies and other mechanism, China will take into full account the quantitative easing policies implemented by central banks of foreign countries."

There aren’t any further details in the article.

Adviser to PBOC says monetary tightening pressure is easing

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 06:22 AM PST

  • Slowing food-prices is easing inflation this month, relieving pressure on China to tighten monetary policy and macroeconomic controls according to PBOC adviser Song Guoqing, speaking at at a forum in Beijing on Saturday
  • He estimates Q1 growth will accelerate to 8.3%
  • Song is one of three academics who sit on the PBOC’s monetary policy committee
  • Says low inflation is still the main objective for China's monetary policy

Bloomberg

 

Beppe Grillo – Italy may soon have to pull out of the Euro

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 06:12 AM PST

Following on from Eamonn’s post here’s a little more from Mr Grillo, taken from an interview with a German magazine published today.

Australian election in September: polling shows Gillard will lose Western Sydney heartland

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 06:11 AM PST

The Australian Federal Labour government is likely to lose the September election quite badly. Bloomberg reports on early polling in crucial seats: Gillard Faces Loss of Western Sydney Labor Heartland, Poll Shows

I’m finding it very difficult to be interested in this polling with the election so far away. There’s still nearly a whole football season before the poll, for goodness sake.

 

Italy’s Grillo might support a government under certain conditions

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 06:03 AM PST

Grillo has outlined what an Italian government would need to do to win his party’s support;

  • “If Bersani’s PD and Berlusconi’s PDL suggest an immediate change in the electoral law,
  • cancellation of election expenses reimbursement,
  • and a maximum of two terms for any deputies

- we would of course support such a government immediately,”

Grillo does think any of this will happen: “But they won’t do that. They are just bluffing to win time,” then saying:

“If we get into parliament we would bring the old system down, not because we would enjoy doing so but because the system is rotten.”

Italy’s a mess. I don’t know what a new election will achieve, but I reckon we’re headed that way.

Reuters

Klaus Regling, head of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM): Euro bailout fund may not extend to banks

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 05:55 AM PST

  • EZ leaders agreed last June to allow the ESM to directly recapitalize banks
  • To stop the rescue of failed banks from adding debt on individual countries
  • Germany & others have doubts about using the fund for this purpose
  • Fears it leaves them responsible for bad loans made in Spain and elsewhere

Regling also has doubts:

“There are several states where enthusiasm for direct bank recapitalizations is very limited,” he said, noting it needed unanimous backing. “I can therefore not say with 100 percent certainty that we will have this instrument.”

  • Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers meet in Brussels on Monday; the ESM will be one of the topics for discussion

Reuters

 

BOJ expected to announce further easing at its April 3 and 4 policy meeting

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 05:34 AM PST

Haruhiko Kuroda is expected to take his place as head of the BOJ on March 19, along with his two new deputies, Hiroshi Nakaso and Kikuo Iwata. Note, the three appointments are yet to be confirmed by the Japanese parliament, but approval is expected. Further note, if there is to be any issue with the confirmations it is likely to centre on Kikuo Iwata.

The first BOJ policy meeting with the new troika in charge is April 3 and 4. There is market talk that the current plan to buy more government bonds slated to begin in January 2014 will be brought forward to May or June 2013.

New BOJ governor set to start stimulus soon

BOJ meeting Wednesday and Thursday next week – no new policy announcements expected

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 05:33 AM PST

There is a BOJ two-day policy meeting next week (Wednesday and Thursday, March 6 and 7); this will be the final meeting chaired by outgoing BOJ head Shirakawa (he finishes on March 19). There is not expected to be any new policy announcements. The first meeting with the new troika in charge is on April 3 and 4.

BOJ likely to refrain from further easing next week

BOJ: What policy options are open to it now?

Posted: 02 Mar 2013 05:31 AM PST

A little weekend light reading on what policy options are open to the BOJ and are likely.

  • Expected to be additional measures introduced at the April BOJ policy meeting
  • Increase buying of government bonds, going out the maturity horizon to 20 year bonds
  • Buy more corporate bonds
  • The potential for a policy of purchasing foreign bonds is 'receding'

BOJ easing options limited

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