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Friday, March 8, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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IMF’s Mme Lagarde: what has been done in Ireland is huge by any standard…

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 02:02 AM PST

…more than two-thirds of the fiscal work has been done.

She has an open mind about many of the terms and conditions of Ireland’s exit strategy from bailout

UK’s ONS: Construction Output dropped by – 6.3% in january

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 01:48 AM PST

  • fell – 7.9% y/y
  • ONS = Office for National Statistics

Bank of Italy : Italian bank bad loans rose by 17.5% in January

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 01:45 AM PST

Ouch !

UK Inflation +3.6% in February for year ahead, highest since May 2012

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 01:30 AM PST

  • last 3.5%
  • for next two years 3.4%,
  • for next 5 years 3.6%
  • net public satisfaction with BOE rises to 17, highest in a year

You know the difference between ‘want’ and ‘need’ ?

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 01:12 AM PST

as in ” darling I want/need…”, or more pertinent for me, my kids who always want $$$ because they neeeeed something sooo badly….

Anyway, USDJPY to me has that balance of both on the bid; some out there want because they need to be joining the excitement and there are those need to buy because they are short or just…well, need them.

Either way the 95.60 offer is substantial at the moment but when it disappears the wanters and the needers will be happy.

Such philosophy !

Will it, won’t it ? USDJPY pressing 95.50 again, barrier gone !

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 12:42 AM PST

Could have had a tee-shirt poll on this, unfortunately they only have my size left !

No follow through yet but the underlying bids seem evident.

Break out the champagne: cable back over 1.5000

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 12:34 AM PST

  • buyers per my low end range between 1.4940-70 and sellers at 1.5020/30
  • it seems some shorts aren’t convinced of a dive quite yet; the market is short so must expect more ranging before we get the catalyst for the next leg down. Will that be the NFP ?

EDIT: whoops, back below ;-)

Order levels

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 12:28 AM PST

My earlier intraday ranges essentially encompass order levels (apologies I should have clarified)

EURUSD support through 1.3040 – 65 offers at the 1.3120 resistance I mention, next before 1.3150, and stops above ( I could be tempted to buy a break here myself for a short run)

USDJPY support 95.00 and 94.70-80, resistance/sellers 95.40-60 (barrier in the middle at 95.50

Swiss February CPI: 0.30% as expectated

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 12:16 AM PST

  • january print was – 0.30%

Euro Bourses Update & Hang Seng close

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 12:06 AM PST

  • DAX up 0.4 %
  • Italy up 0.3 %
  • FTSE up 0.5 %
  • CAC up 0.6 %
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.4 %, up 0.9 % for the week

Austrian Q4 GDP 0.10% vs estimate 0.20%

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 12:03 AM PST

Spanish Industrial Production – 5.00% vs expectation -5.20% y/y

Posted: 08 Mar 2013 12:01 AM PST

  • last print was -6.90%

French Govt Budget balance – Eur 12.8bn vs – Eur 12.5bn previous

Posted: 07 Mar 2013 11:47 PM PST

  • Bk of France sees 0.1% rise in GDP in Q1 unchanged from prior estimate
  • Feb Business Climate Indicator for Industrial sector rises to 96 from 95 in january
  • BCI for Service sector falls to 88 from 90 in january

It’s a quiet morning; my views again…

Posted: 07 Mar 2013 11:23 PM PST

Koorosh asked earlier for my trade ideas; they are really encompassed in my earlier post but I will re-iterate (please ecuse the repetition).

Bigger picture:

  • long USDJPY, EURCHF, EURGBP
  • neutral EURUSD, AUDUSD, Equities (but can’t find strong up-trend)
  • bearish Cable, NZDUSD, Gold
  • hence sell cable and gold rallies

Intra-day before NFPs

  • USDJPY range 94.70 – 95.60
  • EURUSD range 1.3040 – 1.3120
  • Cable range 1.4950/70 – 1.5050
  • EURJPY incline to see a test of the 125.00 and upwards on a strong USDJPY
  • USDCHF 0.9400 – 0.9500 ( I am small long but will add on dips, not an intraday trade as such)

and for Koorosh I am still of the same albeit cautious view in GBPNZD, long, target 1.8500, stop under 1.7950 !

phew !! glad I got those off my chest….

I am posting as my ideas and how I trade, please make your own judgements and remember risk management is king.

I might be a pro trader but I have no scuples about trading tiny contracts until I get a stronger idea – stay in the game, don’t lose it before it starts !

 

 

Eurozone Equity markets/bund update; Chinese Closes

Posted: 07 Mar 2013 11:06 PM PST

  • German Bund opens 5 ticks lower
  • Eurostoxx up 0.4%
  • DAX up up 0.2%
  • CAC up 0.3%
  • China CSI£)) closes down 0.5%, down 2.3% on the week
  • Shanghai Comp closes down 0.2%, down 1.7% on the week

Finnish January Industrial Production y/y -4.8%

Posted: 07 Mar 2013 11:02 PM PST

Pilloried ?

Posted: 07 Mar 2013 10:43 PM PST

pilloried  past participle, past tense of pil·lo·ry (Verb)

Verb
  1. Put (someone) in the pillory.
  2. Attack or ridicule publicly.

Trading Ideas: a place for you to shine !

Posted: 07 Mar 2013 10:33 PM PST

Show your fellow traders what you are made of – or maybe just post your trading ideas ;-)

Come on guys, don’t be shy; I am happy to post mine – and when I am wrong I expect to be pilloried

Nikkei closing up 2.64% at 12,283.6 , 30yr JGB lowest in 2 1/2 yrs

Posted: 07 Mar 2013 10:20 PM PST

  • Kospi closing up 0.08%, Korean market has the North Korea worries to contend with
  • JGB down 10 ticks

Time to take profit ? ‘when’ is often an awkward conundrum in a strong trend

Posted: 07 Mar 2013 10:11 PM PST

I will start with the usual and obvious answer first ! It’s never wrong to take profit – it’s good for the soul, the confidence and pays for the next round of drinks, or golf or holiday ?!

However in strongly trending markets where you been smart (or lucky ?) to be on the move but stongly believe that we have further to go…well, what to do ?

Case in point being the USDJPY; now we all have different goals and parameters and expectations, different risk management and account sizes.

However managing a position can sometimes be a challenge even when you are ‘in the money’; take all the profit and look again, then another swift move that you miss gets you kicking yourself, you hop in again and realise you have now bought at the top of what becomes a decent reversal, then you kick yourself again take your loss and become very miserable : you have given away a good proportion of the original profit.

My own strategy is this: if I am playing the trend with a modest position I stay with it and merely make sure I can afford a fairly big stop where it will be trend changing – on the dips I will just add more; or, if it is a sizeable position it always good to take a slice of the table, improve the average and look again, that way you can keep in the position for the next run up.

I just took some of my long USDJPY out having been long and adding to it constantly; less stress, better average, money in the bank, and being a momentum trader when 95.60 clears and later after NFP it looks like a strong weekly close I will then re-buy ready for the next move up.

And for those who will be worried about the NFP swings, take profit and look again: why get wiped on a lottery coin flip ?

PS. as you get further into the trend start using protective stops…why give too much away, you can always reinstate.

Hope this helps some of you. Happy trading


at 6:06 PM

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