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Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

EURGBP higher but 0.8560 holds still

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 01:50 AM PDT

Seeing a climb back up in this pair as the euro maintains its firmer tone.

Still can’t get back above 0.8560 though for the moment, and now back down to 0.8548.

Offers seen at 0.8575 and 0.8600.. buyers back in at 0.8535 and 0.8500

Trading Ideas

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 01:33 AM PDT

We’ve had some good threads going in the comments pages this morning but let’s have your recent trading ideas and thoughts here

Reasons welcome as always

Italian industrial output feb: m/m -0.8% vs -0.5% exp

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 01:02 AM PDT

  • +1.00% prev up from 0.8%
  • y/y -3.8% vs -4.3%  exp  -3.6% prev

EURJPY higher again but now faces 130.50 barrier option resistance

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 12:56 AM PDT

This pair is the main driver this morning.

High posted 130.42 but yet to breach barrier option sell interest at 130.50

EURUSD 1.3110  USDJPY 99.35 after 99.45 highss

EUR and AUD on the rise again

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 12:24 AM PDT

EURUSD posts highs of 1.3108

AUDUSD 1.0517

USDJPY 99.21

Europe liking these pairs again

French industrial output feb: +0.7% vs +0.4% exp

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 11:54 PM PDT

  • -1.2% prev
  • out just now. no impact

AUDUSD back above 1.0500 after earlier dip

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 11:47 PM PDT

1.0513 on this rally. currently 1.0507

so the big question now is will it take out the next offers at 1.0520 and1.0550?

 

Nikkei closes + 0.73% at 13,288.13

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 11:03 PM PDT

  • highest close since Aug 2008

USDJPY above 99.00 still but will we see 100?

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 10:58 PM PDT

Obvious gains since the BOJ statement last week but will we break 100 or is that one step too far for now?

Here’s the 4 hour chart .I’d love to hear your views

Early thoughts

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 10:30 PM PDT

I turn my back yesterday, aka finish my shift, and AUDUSD pops 1.0500 and EURUSD 1.3100

I posted during my time online that both were showing good signs of resilience in the face of decent offers, and I’m not surprised to see these levels broken

Big question now is whether the levels are sustainable and I remain unconvinced that we see larger gains right now.

What say you ?

UK press

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 10:23 PM PDT

Here’s the latest musings from our friends at the london commuter paper

Option expiries 10am NY cut

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 09:56 PM PDT

  • USDJPY  98.00, 98.50,99.00,99.50,100.00,102.00
  • EURUSD, 1.2900,1.2980,1.3085,1.3125,1.3200
  • GBPUSD 1.5200,1.5300,
  • AUDUSD 1.0350,1.0400,1.0415,1.0450,1.0550
  • EURCHF 1.2150,1.2200,1.2350
  • AUDJPY 98.60

ForexLive Asia wrap: Chinese trade data shows a small deficit, big jump in imports

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 09:01 PM PDT

The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today

  • Reminder – BOJ meets with market players on April 11th
  • China March trade balance -$0.88bn (vs. $15.15bn expected)
  • China March exports +10.0% y/y (vs. +11.7% expected)
  • China March imports +14.1% y/y (vs. +6.0% expected)
  • New Zealand card/retail sales +4.2% in March y/y, while the seasonally adjusted figures, for the m/m came in at -0.5%
  • Japan March bank lending (incl. trusts) +1.6% y/y (vs. +1.5% prior)
  • Japan March bank lending (excl. trusts) +1.9% y/y (vs. +1.8% prior)
  • Australia Westpac/MI Consumer Sentiment for April falls 5.1% to 104.9 (vs. 110.5 Prior)
  • Japanese PM Abe said in pariament the BOJ would continue easing until inflation target reached, and that change of deflation mindset would come through bold BOJ easing (he didn't actually say that beatings would continue until morale improves, but you get the idea)
  • RBA's Kent reiterated that low inflation in Australia allowed 'scope for a further rate cut', more here
  • The China Securities Journal headlined: No reason to tighten monetary policy
  • Australian Treasurer Swan said AUD is 'defying gravity'

Quiet range-bound session in Asia overall.

USD/JPY traded in a 98.90/99.20 range, with little in the way of new inputs to give it a shove in either direction. Abe spoke in parliament without saying much (a politician’s gift).

EUR/USD found support around 1.3075/80 but offers above 1.3085 – yes indeed a very tight range. it is approaching very big resistance levels 1.3110 – 1.3150.

GBP/USD was little better, 1.5310 – 1.5330 containing it.

NZD/USD. too, very flat on the day. It too is approaching important resistance, around 0.8535/45.

AUD/USd the one bright spot, with a little bit of movement in response to the Chinese trade data. It had found support around 1.0480 throughout the session leading into the Chinese data release. The slight deficit saw a kneed-jerk offer, of miniscule size as it dipped all of 5 points or so, before almost immediately finding solace in the arms of stronger import data (forgive me, I’m working on my AUD love novel, Fifty Shades of G’day), taking it to test offers at 1.0515/20. It spent the balance of the session, until writing this, in a 1.0503/1.0515 range.

Please turn the music down – Ben Bernanke is about to go to bed

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 08:47 PM PDT

We don’t want something else keeping him awake at night.

Wall Street Journal:  Bernanke: You Know What Keeps Me Up At Night

many of the things that worry him are already well known: the ongoing tumult in Europe, the uneven U.S. recovery and fiscal questions that have dogged U.S. policy makers.

Nothing new on the horizon to worry him … yet

BoA analyst: Kill the 500 euro note to boost the economy

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 08:31 PM PDT

Adam wrote on this earlier - its worth another look for those who haven’t seen it

Bank of America analyst Athanasios Vamvakidis :

  • ECB should eliminate the  €500 note
  • Would weaken the euro
  • Boost the economy
  • Frustrate gangsters

Mario Draghisays that "high-denomination euro banknotes fulfill an important role as a store of value"

But, says Vamvakidis

The evidence … is that the mega bills end up as "mattress money," rarely seeing the light of day and existing as an alternative vehicle for holding savings. An ECB study itself suggests that only one-third of these notes in circulation are used for transaction purposes.

Its a very interesting article.

Dont mess with this gansta's mattress

Reminder – BOJ meets with market players on April 11th

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 08:10 PM PDT

I’ve just been reminded myself – the BOJ is holding a meeting to ‘brief and exchange views with financial institutions and institutional investors on last week’s monetary easing and the outlook for market operations’ in Tokyo on April 11, at 4pm local time (0700GMT).

I’m still waiting on my invitation :-)

Article on $A – yuan direct convertibility

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 07:59 PM PDT

From the Australian Financial Review: Businesses to benefit from $A-yuan deal

The biggest benefit cited is:

Currency strategists said the efficiency and pricing benefits of direct conversion between the yuan and the Australian dollar would take time – but could result in a few basis points of pricing benefit as the need to first convert to the yen or greenback is scrapped.

Yep – while every little bit helps, I don’t think the benefit is going to be huge.

A someone pointed out in the comments yesterday, how competitive is the pricing going to be with just two market-makers?

China customs: Still dont see a clear sign of stable recovery in external demand

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 07:46 PM PDT

On the newswires

And, of course, we can’t have a Chinese data release without … ???

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 07:42 PM PDT

From the Australian Financial Review:

  • Analysts sceptical about the country's trade data following a three-month run of much better than expected results.
  • Results from China's biggest trading partners, eg. Taiwan and Hong Kong, don't correspond
  • Nor do manufacturing surveys (the PMIs)

Exports grew more than 20 per cent in both January and February, even though the debt problems across Europe, one of China's biggest trading partners, have worsened.

I don’t think questions about the veracity of Chinese data will ever be answered. Ever.

China trade booms but doubts raised about data (gated)

AUD finally moves – Chinese trade data driving it higher

Posted: 09 Apr 2013 07:17 PM PDT

So much for AUD looking heavy, the bids around 1.0475/85 held it and the injection of new data (Chinese trade figures) hAs given it a boost.

Currently around 1.0510, with sell orders up around here through 1.0525. Stops above there.

The talk in the market is all about the Chinese import number showing a stronger domestic economy – and therefore demand for Australian dirt mining outputs.


at 5:06 PM

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