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Thursday, April 11, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Portugese fin min wants bail-out loan time extension

Posted: 11 Apr 2013 01:39 AM PDT

  • on reuters
  • says he wants to create room to issue a 10 year bond

Aussie aussie aussie, bid bid bid

Posted: 11 Apr 2013 01:23 AM PDT

The march continues and now AUD USD is chewing through sell orders between 1.0575-80 ahead of the reported barrier option resistance at 1.0600

AUDJPY  105.30 and GBPAUD down to 1.4525

EURUSD lagging behind but still well supported

Posted: 11 Apr 2013 01:13 AM PDT

This pair has been lagging behind a little this morning with the focus on AUD and NZD but we’re back above 1.3080 again.

Sell orders at 1.3090 and larger interest at 1.3100. Buyers at 1.3050 , 1.3025 and 1.3000

 

Cable takes out the 1.5350 offers

Posted: 11 Apr 2013 01:07 AM PDT

GBPUSD has also been a beneficiary this morning, just taking out the reported sell orders at 1.5350 and posting highs of 1.5366.

currently 1.5356 again with more offers reported at 1.5380 and larger sell interest at 1.5400

AUDUSD higher again at 1.0560

Posted: 11 Apr 2013 01:04 AM PDT

A few comments in the chat room about why this is so bid again after horrible jobs data today but don’t forget we had huge numbers last time around suggesting a lack of reliability, and anyhow, the exodus from Japan continues in to risk/high yielders as we’ve just highlighted with the Kiwi

1.0561 posted highs so far

All hail the mighty Kiwi

Posted: 11 Apr 2013 12:57 AM PDT

You know it’s deathly quiet in the market when the Kiwi is the prime mover.

The seemingly unstoppable upward move in NZDUSD over the past few days has continued this morning and just posted highs of 0.8624 with NZDJPY at 86.20

Various reasons for the demand as Eamonn and I have posted previously

  • the expectation of  tighter monetary policy due to rising house prices, exacerbated today by a 2% m/m increase
  • fin min English said today that if house prices go up then interest rates must go up
  • outflow from japan into risk classes
  • reported addition of Kiwi bonds into the Citi World Govt Bon Index

Seems it wasn’t so long ago all was doom and gloom on the Kiwi but it’s a brave man who backs against it now

 

French CPI final march: m/m +0.8% vs +0.7% exp

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 11:45 PM PDT

  • +0.3% prev
  • y/y  +1.1% vs +1.0% exp  +1.2% prev
  • ex tobacco  +0.8% vs +0.3% prev

USDJPY edging higher again as market waits on Kuroda

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 11:24 PM PDT

Now 99.76 from 99.52 earlier

EURUSD and GBPUSD also a little firmer but going nowhere fast at 1.3070 and 1.5330

Nikkei closes up 1.96% at 13,549.16

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 11:06 PM PDT

  • highest since july 2008
  • up 261.03 points

German CPI march final: m/m +0.5% vs +0.5% exp

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 11:00 PM PDT

  • +0.5% prev
  • y/y 1.4% vs +1.4% exp  +1.4% prev
  • HICP  m/m  +0.4 %  vs +0.4 % prev   y/y  +1.8% vs +1.8%prev

Coming up at the top of the hour

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 10:46 PM PDT

German final CPI for march m/m +0.5% exp vs +0.5% prev

BOJ governor Kuroda meeting with financial institutions. Expect this to be press embargoed again with all comments coming at one time afterwards.. If not then we’ll update of course as it comes through.

BOJ conducting market briefing today, and another on April 17

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 10:42 PM PDT

In addition to the BOJ briefing today at 0700GMT the BOJ will “hold a meeting on April 17 to exchange opinions with traders at banks and brokerages”. Nikkei carrying the report.

Trading Ideas

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 10:42 PM PDT

Ok, while we’re waiting for markets to move ( hopefully!) let’s be having your trading ideas and thoughts in this thread.

Reasons welcome as always but not obligatory

BOE regulator says tear up the banks rules and start again

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 09:51 PM PDT

This and other stories worth a read courtesy of commuter freebie City am

Tobin tax targets UK

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 09:47 PM PDT

Here’s the take of The Telegraph’s AEP that Europe’s adoption of the Tobin tax is highly dangerous  and deliberately looking to weaken London’s position in financial markets.

Never holds his punches does AEP.

Option expiries 10am NY cut

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 09:30 PM PDT

  • USDJPY 96.90,98.00,98.50,99.00,99.50,99.70,100.00,100.20
  • GBPUSD 1.5050,1.5200,1.5300
  • EURUSD 1.2900,1.2980,1.3085,1.3090,1.3100,1.3115,1.3125,1.3200
  • AUDUSD 1.0450,1.0480,1.0485,1.0500,1.0525,1.0550
  • EURCHF 1.2150,1.2200,1.2350
  • AUDJPY 98.60

ForexLive Asia wrap: USD/JPY looks at 100, fails to get there again

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 09:02 PM PDT

The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today

  • Reminder: the BOJ will 'brief and exchange views with financial institutions and institutional investors on last week's monetary easing and the outlook for market operations' at 4pm Tokyo time (0700GMT)
  • Fed's Fisher: Fed has had a serious discussion about when and under what conditions to taper bond buys
  • Japan March M2 money stock 3.0% y/y (2.9% prior and 2.9% expected )
  • Japan March M3 money stock 2.5 y/y (2.4% prior and 2.4% expected)
  • Japan March Domestic CGPI 0.1% m/m (Corporate Goods price Index) (0.4% prior and 0.2% expected)
  • Japan March Domestic CGPI -0.5% y/y (Corporate Goods price Index) (-0.1% prior and -0.4% expected)
  • Japan February machine orders 7.5% m/m (-13.1% prior and 6.9% expected)
  • Japan February machine orders -11.3% y/y (-9.7% prior and -7.6% expected)
  • Japanese buying of foreign bonds -Y1144.bn (week ending April 5) (prior was -Y117.4bn)
  • Japanese buying of foreign stocks Y6.3bn (week ending April 5) (prior was -Y71.8bn)
  • Foreign buying of Japanese bonds Y463.6B (week ending April 5) (prior was Y747.8bn)
  • Foreign buying of Japanese stocks Y868.6bn (week ending April 5) (prior was Y228.1bn)
  • Australia March employment data: -36,100 (vs. +74,000 prior and -7,500 expected)
  • Australia March Unemployment 5.6% (vs. 5.4% prior and 5.4% expected)
  • Australia employment data: Participation rate at 65.1 (vs. 65.3% prior and 65.2% expected)
  • (In summary, Australian employment data release today was dreadful and has prompted many bank economists to predict further RBA easing in Q2 or Q3, as long as inflation remains within the target zone)
  • Australia: Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations for April 2.2% (vs. prior of 2.3%)
  • New Zealand: ANZ Truckometer index -2.7% in March (prior was +0.3%)
  • New Zealand: BNZ March manufacturing PMI 53.4 (vs. 56.3 prior)
  • New Zealand: March house price index +2.4% m/m
  • New Zealand finance minister English: If house price inflation stays at current rate it will cause higher interest rates
  • Bank of Korea left its key interest rate at 2.75%, unchanged

It wasn't a busy Asian session, but there were a few movements to speak of:

EUR/USD lost a little ground and USD/JPY came lower – some EUR/JPY selling obviously helping in the drift down. Bids around 1.3050 held the decline, though.

USD/JPY had a look up towards 100 in the pre-Tokyo morning, but the intensity of the offering interest kept it below 99.90 and it subsequently fell as low as 99.35/40 in the afternoon. The earlier data releases (see bullets, above) had very little impact, much of these are old data that predate the game-changing April 4 announcement from the BOJ).

NZD/USD stabilized around 0.8580 in a tight range today.

AUD/USD had some movement after the employment data release (it was tightly range-bound ahead of the figures at 1.0535/45). The results saw AUD as low as 1.0500/05 before bouncing to 1.0515/20. It steadily drifted back to 1.0500 to find bids again. The employment figures were dreadful, but they came after a huge upside surprise last month. it is a volatile data series and this should be borne in mind, but the broad weakness seen today is a real concern and has prompted some bank economists to continue calls for a further RBA rate cut in the 3rd or 4th quarter.

Reminder: Kuroda meets with Japanese market players at 0700GMT

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 08:45 PM PDT

I’ve posted this a few times in the past 24 hours, so sorry if you’ve read it before, but for those who are not aware, there is a meeting scheduled for 4pm Tokyo time (0700GMT) where the BOJ will 'brief and exchange views with financial institutions and institutional investors on last week's monetary easing and the outlook for market operations'.

Just another reminder before I hand you over to Mike.

Thinking about the unintended consequences of the rapid yen adjustment

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 08:29 PM PDT

An article in the Wall Street Journal compares the current rapid depreciation in the yen with its huge appreciation in two days back in 1998:

Between the start and close of business on Oct. 7 and Oct. 8 in 1998, the dollar dropped against the yen by almost 15%

It asks what unintended disruptions the current yen fall could precipitate. Worth reading.:

As Yen Slides, 1998 Stands as Warning to World Markets (gated)

ADDED: Also available here – not gated: As yen slides, 1998 stands as warning to markets
Commentary: How will China and other export nations respond?

RBA’s Stevens provides the LOL of the day

Posted: 10 Apr 2013 08:15 PM PDT

From his speech here: Remarks to the Asia-Pacific Financial Market Development Symposium

Scroll right the bottom, and in the foot notes, this gem:

In aviation and, I imagine, in sailing, a good weather forecast is invaluable. My observation is that those weather forecasts are actually pretty good. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for forecasts in economics and finance. This doesn’t mean we don’t set out on the journey – we have no choice – but it means we should do so with due care.


at 5:06 PM

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