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• Eurozone trade balance feb: EUR+10.4 bln vs +3 bln exp
• Prices turning lower again as risk-off resumes
• EURUSD edges higher on EURJPY rally
• Greek fin min clinches a deal with Troika on bail-out review
• European equities lower on the open
• French fin min says 2014 budget will raise tax burden
• Everybody’s down on Bitcoins …
• Kuroda says Japan needs support of financial sector if monetary policy is to boost growth
• Trading Ideas
• Nikkei closes 1.55% lower at 13,276.66
• Yen weakening again as Europe opens up
• Option expiries 10am NY cut
• Japanese capacity utilization index change: +0.7% vs +1.7% prev
• Japnese industrial output revised feb: +0.6% vs -0.1% prev
• Some good news for Australia
• ForexLive Asia wrap: Good old fashioned rout in gold and silver today
• UK Telegraph: “Financial crisis caused by too many bankers taking cocaine, says former drugs tsar”
• Gold move today – how ugly is it?
• Sell-off continues, spreading
• China GDP, industrial production, retail sales figures – recap

Eurozone trade balance feb: EUR+10.4 bln vs +3 bln exp Posted: 15 Apr 2013 02:03 AM PDT EUR-3.9 bln prev

Prices turning lower again as risk-off resumes Posted: 15 Apr 2013 01:22 AM PDT That little rally was short lived as USDJPY now trades back around 98.00 dragging EURUSD with it to 1.3057 GBPUSD ran into offers at 1.5340 and is now posting 1.5319 AUDUSD down to 1.0420 with gold turning lower again to USD 1440

EURUSD edges higher on EURJPY rally Posted: 15 Apr 2013 12:52 AM PDT currently 1.3090 with EURJPY stretching earlier gains to 128.64 offers in EURUSD now seen at 1.3100 and 1.3135 with larger interest at 1.3150 and 1.3200 bids at 1.3050,1.3035, 1.3000

Greek fin min clinches a deal with Troika on bail-out review Posted: 15 Apr 2013 12:32 AM PDT says Greek debt on a sustainable path says  Cyprus crisis will not alter its own macro-economic strategy Aiming at a drastic of public debt after achieving primary budget surplus in 2013 Troika statement says next disbursement EUR 2.8 bln from EU-IMF could be agreed soon

European equities lower on the open Posted: 15 Apr 2013 12:28 AM PDT FTSE  -0.2% DAX  0.0% CAC40 -0.1% IBEX +0.1% FTMIB -0.2%

French fin min says 2014 budget will raise tax burden Posted: 14 Apr 2013 11:37 PM PDT will increase by 0.2% to 0.3% of GDP Mr Moscovici quoted on reuters

Everybody’s down on Bitcoins … Posted: 14 Apr 2013 11:36 PM PDT Here’s an article in Bloomberg that looks at the costs in electricity from mining Bitcoins. Blockchain.info, a site that tracks data on Bitcoin mining, estimates that in just the last 24 hours, miners used about $147,000 of electricity just to run their hardware … The trade-off here is that as virtual value is created, real-world value is used up. About 982 megawatt hours a day, to be exact. That's enough to power roughly 31,000 U.S. homes, or about half a Large Hadron Collider. Really? Why is this a problem? How does the cost of people around the globe watching You Tube compare? If the Bitcoin miners are buying their electricity (they are), where’s the problem? If you’re gonna whine about the electricity they use, then you probably need to come clean and whine about other uses for electricity, like watching You Tube, yeah? Or playing WOW (or whatever). Maybe we should just restrict electricity use to socially beneficial uses, for the greater good. Comrade. Whining about Bitcoin electricity use Is. Just. Whining.

Kuroda says Japan needs support of financial sector if monetary policy is to boost growth Posted: 14 Apr 2013 11:34 PM PDT speaking in his second scheduled appearance of the day says still some uncertainty in global financial markets so good risk management is important zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Trading Ideas Posted: 14 Apr 2013 11:17 PM PDT Well, we’ve certainly seen some good movement in the last two sessions but are we seeing a shift in JPY sentiment ?  How much further can gold and silver fall? Are commodity currencies going to remain under attack? Will the SNB be in anytime soon to prop up EURCHF? Is the pound resuming its downtrend? Will we see greater focus on Eurozone contagion? Lots of questions out there right now so let’s be having your trading ideas and thoughts as another week in the fickle world of forex gets underway. As usual I’ll be adding my own thoughts as the session progresses.

Nikkei closes 1.55% lower at 13,276.66 Posted: 14 Apr 2013 11:02 PM PDT down 209.48 points

Yen weakening again as Europe opens up Posted: 14 Apr 2013 10:52 PM PDT After the volatility of JPY over night and earlier this morning we’re seeing a move back higher in USDJPY to 98.15 and EURJPY to 128.30 from lows of 97.70 and 127.70 when I sat down 2 hours ago. No specific reason cited but understandably a little bit of early morning/end of Asia interest to book some profit on what’s been a sharp move. Big question now is whether we are seeing a shift in sentiment for a firmer JPY for a while. Personally I’d say the jury is still out but the JPY bears will be a little nervous at the moment having seen one-way traffic for a while.

Option expiries 10am NY cut Posted: 14 Apr 2013 09:45 PM PDT USDJPY 97.50,98.50,98.60,99.00, 99.20, 100.00,100.25 EURUSD 1.2700,1.3000,1.3005,1.3020,1.3100,1.3150,1.3325 GBPUSD 1.5200,1.5350,1.5400 AUDUSD 1.0325,1.0400,1.0490,1.0495,1.0550 USDCHF  0.9300,0.9350,0.9495 EURCHF 1.2150, 1.2200 EURGBP 0.8500

Japanese capacity utilization index change: +0.7% vs +1.7% prev Posted: 14 Apr 2013 09:33 PM PDT

Japnese industrial output revised feb: +0.6% vs -0.1% prev Posted: 14 Apr 2013 09:31 PM PDT

Some good news for Australia Posted: 14 Apr 2013 09:25 PM PDT Good day everyone, and I hope you all had a great week-end. A lively Asian session with a continuation of the meltdown we saw on Friday. But while I’ve got a large Aussie contingent here, and being a keen golfer, I should first mark the achievement of Adam Scott in becoming the first Australian to win the US Masters. Top work fella !

ForexLive Asia wrap: Good old fashioned rout in gold and silver today Posted: 14 Apr 2013 09:01 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today China Q1 GDP recorded a big miss, coming in at +7.7% y/y (vs. +8.0% expected) Other Chinese data was also weak – China March Industrial Production +8.9% (vs. +10.1% expected) China Retail sales for March +12.4% y/y (vs. +12.6% expected) China March Fixed Asset investment excluding rural 20.9% (vs. 21.3% expected) Australia housing finance for February: +2.0% (vs. +1.5% expected) UK: April Rightmove House Prices +0.4% y/y (vs. +1.2% prior) UK: April Rightmove House Prices +2.1% m/m (vs. +1.7% prior) New Zealand data: March Services PMI 55.4 (vs. 55.5 prior) BOJ's Kuroda spoke during the Tokyo morning, not really saying anything new – but his comments are here and here I don't often report on newspaper articles in the headlines, but this one is worth being aware of – pointing to possible laying of groundwork for further wealth taxes in Europe The Chinese GDP figures were a market focus today, with most currencies fairly quiet before their release. USD/JPY, though, had an active morning, trading below 98.00 in the illiquid early New Zealand market before opening into Tokyo above 98.25. It traded as high as 98.71 as Kuroda's unsurprising comments were being reported and then traded lower for the rest of the session, back below 98.00 as I write this wrap-up. The Chinese data showed a big miss on expectations (see bullets, above). Interestingly, a leak of the number came out moments before the official release, the leak was accurate. AUD, EUR, GBP, NZD all traded lower with the news. Gold and silver were already having a bad day, silver in particular being sold heavily throughout the session. Oil, too, lost ground after the Chinese data. Adding: Just a couple of points to note about the poor Chinese data. There was market talk that the numbers were actually understated (which is unusual given Chinese data is often said to be overstated) so as to give the new Chinese leadership a lower base to work from in coming releases and therefore being able to claim their new policies are working. Also, it is now only a matter of time before reports of new Chinese easings start to do the rounds.

UK Telegraph: “Financial crisis caused by too many bankers taking cocaine, says former drugs tsar” Posted: 14 Apr 2013 08:46 PM PDT David Nutt, the former Government drugs tsar … has said that the banking crisis was caused by too many workers taking cocaine. There you have it. Simple. What’s that they say, when you’ve got a hammer, pretty much everything looks like a nail? Telegraph

Gold move today – how ugly is it? Posted: 14 Apr 2013 08:07 PM PDT Umm … Very. Its broken through (easily) important lows of the past nearly two years. The first chart shows 3 years price action, and due to the scale you cant really see today’s candle that clearly, so the second chart is one year only: Source is Bloomberg Its been in a downtrend for a while. Will find resistance on bounces now.

Sell-off continues, spreading Posted: 14 Apr 2013 07:48 PM PDT EUR, GBP, NZD joining in the sell-off now – to new lows for the day. AUD/USD to 1.0425 area. EUR/USD has some support coming in around 1.3040/50.

China GDP, industrial production, retail sales figures – recap Posted: 14 Apr 2013 07:36 PM PDT Bloomberg article with a brief recap of the figures we just got out of China: China First-Quarter Growth Trails Estimates as Risks Loom - On a separate note: The Chinese statistics office have said the Q1 miss is due to slower global growth and also domestic policy adjustment. There is some speculation doing the rounds that the figures may be slightly understated (!) so as to give the new leadership a lower base to work from going forward. Also, note that its only a matter of time before these weak numbers park talk of PBOC easing. Meanwhile AUD/USD had a little bounce to 60/65, where we expected sellers to again kick in, and is now 1.0435/38.

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