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Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Swiss investor sentiment april: 20 vs 2.3 prev

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 02:02 AM PDT

Someone’s full of confidence!

EURUSD testing 1.3200

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 01:56 AM PDT

Good sell interest up here as I’ve reported before.

One minute we’re testing good support at 1.3150, the next we’re testing resistance at 1.3200. Testing times indeed !

eurusd 1 min 17 apr

EURGBP buyers after UK data

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 01:51 AM PDT

Rising unemployment rate and lower earnings have put another strain on the pound.

GBPUSD has been holding onto support at 1.5300 but now breaking through at 1.5295

EURGBP has taken the hit with the euro bid overall again.

Sell orders at 0.8600 absorbed. high posted 0.8622. currently 0.8621

Next offers at 0.8630 with large sell interest at 0.8650

eurgbp 4 hr 17 apr

 

UK average earnings Feb: +0.8% vs +1.2% prev

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 01:43 AM PDT

Not a good trend either

UK claimant count march:-7k vs 0k exp

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 01:31 AM PDT

  • -5.3k prev revised up from -1.5k
  • Unemployment rate  7.9 % vs 7.8% exp  7.8% prev

Little to make any real impact. Better claimaint count but rising unemployment rate never a good thing

 

BOE MPC vote : QE hold 6-3 vs 6-3 prev, rate cut hold 9-0 vs 9-0 prev

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 01:30 AM PDT

  • unchanged voting for unchanged policy of 0.5% interest rates and QE 375 bln
  • King, Miles and Fisher the three voters for increase in QE again

Minutes highlights:

  • BOE sees prospects for growth subdued given Eurozone weakness
  • sees Cyprus causing depositor fears
  • inflation expectations consistent with meeting  target but rate staying elevated for extended period
  • MPC should look through even protracted inflation
  • net lending so far subdued but sees benefits from FLS scheme

Nothing too outrageous here

 

Coming up: UK employment data and BOE MPC minutes

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 01:24 AM PDT

Both at the bottom of the hour.

Employment data shouldn’t have too much impact but traders focussed on the MPC minutes and the vote for/against more QE. 6-3 against last time. Wil they ease before Mr Carney arrives or just let him press the button when he does?

As usual, the minutes themselves may spring further surprises and I will bring it all to you just as fast as my little fingers can type !

Rumour time

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 01:18 AM PDT

Various rumours going round at the moment ranging from German sovereign downgrade, to fat finger on Zetra-DAX, plus large sell programme on Estoxx futures.

Make of them what you will but the euro isn’t exactly in tumble mode

USDJPY flirts with 98.00

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 12:59 AM PDT

Those sell orders at 98.50 certainly put paid to that rally. Been edging down since as EURJPY sellers emerge. EURUSD testing decent support between 1.3150-55

European stock markets turning lower also not helping the euro’s cause

Sweden leave interest rates unchanged at 1%

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 12:35 AM PDT

  • as expected but Sveriges Riksbank has dampened future repo rate hike expectations in its statement
  • SEK is under fire a little with EURSEK at highest levels since March 25 at 8.4520

European equities open firmer

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 12:17 AM PDT

  • FTSE  +0.3%
  • DAX +0.5%
  • CAC40 +0.7
  • IBEX +0.4%
  • FTMIB +0.7%

GBPUSD: bull or bear ?

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 12:09 AM PDT

The pound, like the euro, has both bull and bear supporters right now at these levels and this pair is no exception.

Is it being dragged up on the coat tails of others or does it genuinely want to go higher? Both arguments have relative merit.

Ahead of the employment and MPC releases at 08.30 GMT we’ve got good size selling interest at 1.5400 and 1.5450 with smaller orders inbetween at 1.5425. Buyers come in at 1.5320 with larger interest at 1.5300 and 1.5250 with further support at 1.5275-85 ahead of yesterday’s lows.

gbpusd 5 min 17 apr

EURGBP: Sellers lined up at 0.8600

Posted: 16 Apr 2013 11:52 PM PDT

On the theme of a buoyant euro this pair has found some legs in the past 24 hours on the back of the EURJPY-EURUSD rally.It also tells us that the Pound is not a favoured son at the moment despite GBPUSD being dragged up to 1.5373.

Sell orders lined up at 0.8600 with stop-loss buy orders lined up if 0.8610 breaks. Support comes in at 0.8560 and more at 0.8535

eurgbp 5 min 17 apr

EURUSD: Good demand still but offers remain

Posted: 16 Apr 2013 11:45 PM PDT

We’ve seen some good buying interest for the euro in the past 24 hours led by EURJPY. I’m still not sure why it should be the chosen one right now but hey, if the technicals point higher who am I to argue?! Must say though this chart looks delicately balanced.

We’ve got good size selling interest at 1.3200 still and more at 1.3220  while immediate support comes in at the 100 dma around 1.3155. More demand at 1.3140 but stop-loss selling lined up if that breaks with next buying interest at 1.3125 and 1.3100

eurusd 5 min17 apr

Nikkei closes up 1.22% at 13,1382.89

Posted: 16 Apr 2013 11:03 PM PDT

  • +161.45

USDJPY rally stalls ahead of orders at 98.50

Posted: 16 Apr 2013 10:08 PM PDT

The rally has just come to a halt ahead of sell orders lined up at 98.50

High posted 98.41 .currently 98.35

This has dragged the other pairs up with it so far so let’s see what happens now, but there are bids still down to 98.00 and below to 97.50

Japan consumer confidence index march: 44.8 vs 44.2 prev

Posted: 16 Apr 2013 10:01 PM PDT

  • 3rd rise in a row
  • highest reading since  46.3 in May 2007

Data coming up today

Posted: 16 Apr 2013 10:00 PM PDT

DATA 17 APRIL

Option expiries 10am NY cut

Posted: 16 Apr 2013 09:39 PM PDT

Good day everyone,

Seems like we’ve had a quiet night after all the recent fun and games. Let’s see what happens in our session

Meanwhile here’s what’s running off today

Note I’ve just updated original post

  • USDJPY  96.00,97.50,98.00,99.50,100.30
  • EURUSD 1.3035,1.3100, 1.3125
  • GBPUSD 1.5150,1.5300,1.5310,1.5385
  • USDCAD 1.0125,1.0200
  • AUDUSD 1.0400,1.0500, 1.0575,1.0625

ForexLive Asia wrap: USD/JPY continued its recovery again today

Posted: 16 Apr 2013 09:00 PM PDT

The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today

  • PBOC sets yuan mid-point at 6.2342 (vs. 6.2408 previously), which is a post-2005 reforms high
  • Letter with toxin enclosed sent to US senator
  • Australia: Westpac/MI February leading index +0.6% m/m (vs. prior +0.4%)
  • Australia: Westpac/MI Annualized Growth Rate +4.2% in February (well above its long -term trend at 2.8%)
  • Chairman if China Investment Corporation, Jin Liqun,said that CIC was 'worried' about US and Japan QE
  • New Zealand Q1 CPI +0.4% m/m (vs. +0.5% expected)
  • New Zealand Q1 CPI +0.9% y/y (vs. +0.9% expected)
  • New Zealand Online job vacancies down 1.2% in March (vs. -2.5% prior)
  • South Korean March PPI -0.4% m/m (vs. +0.7% prior) and -2.4% y/y (vs. -1.6% prior)

EUR and GBP had very quiet days today, both looking a little soft but nevertheless trading in extremely narrow ranges. News of a US senator receiving a toxin-laced letter (see bullets, above) raised concerns, but without an overt 'risk off' move.

NZD/USD rallied in the Asian morning to test above 0.8500 but could not sustain into sellers around 0.8510/20, staying within the range it had established in Europe and New York overnight.

AUD/USD continued to see offers ahead of 1.0400 and then traded as if on a string connected to the Shanghai Composite, falling a little as the Chinese equity market lost ground..

USD/JPY found continued bids around 97.50, with talk again that Japanese importers were big buyers, pushing it back above 98.00 and through to as high as 98.33. There is selling ahead of 98.50 to be done, and the price slowly drifted back to 98.10/15 as I write.


at 5:14 PM

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