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Spanish auction results: Sold EUR 4.71 bln vs 3.5-3.5 bln target
Orders for JPY
UK retail sales march: -0.7% vs -0.8% exp
AUDUSD creeping higher as gold recovers
GBP/USD tech levels
GBPUSD: sticking to 1.5250
EURUSD: good two-way interest noted
German fin min says there is clearly less uncertainty in markets now than a few months ago
European equities open firmer
Coming up this morning
EURJPY buying lifts USDJPY back above 98.00
Nikkei closes down 1.22% at 13,220.07
Trading Ideas
Option expiries 10am NY cut
ForexLive Asia wrap: Active day but narrow ranges
These people are lucky to be alive – shocking video of fertilzer plant explosion
Wall Street Journal: ‘May still be too soon to expect massive outflows of Japanese money’ on Japanese
Dirty, ugly picture
More from BOJ’s Miyao
BOJ member Miyao comments on wires now; Expects investors to buy more foreign bonds

Spanish auction results: Sold EUR 4.71 bln vs 3.5-3.5 bln target

Posted: 18 Apr 2013 01:58 AM PDT

1.38 bln july 2016 yield 2.79% vs 3.09% prev bid to cover 2.84% vs 1.86% prev
2.043 bln jan 2018 yield 3.26% vs 3.56% prev btc 2.52% vs 3.58% prev
1.29 bln jan 2023 yield 4.61% vs 4.9% prev btc 2.58% vs 1.89% prev

Spanish treasury got to be pleased with that

EURUSD a touch firmer at 1.3054

Orders for JPY

Posted: 18 Apr 2013 01:48 AM PDT

Here’s what’s out there at the moment

USDJPY offers at 98.20, 98.50, 98.75, 98.90, 99.00 .. bids at 97.80,97.65,97.50,97.00

EURJPY offers at 128.50, 128.70,129.00, 129.50.. bids at 127.50,127.25,127.00,126.50

UK retail sales march: -0.7% vs -0.8% exp

Posted: 18 Apr 2013 01:30 AM PDT

+2.1% prev
y/y -0.5 % vs -0.6% exp
ex fuel m/m -0.8% vs -0.5% +1.9% prev y/y +0.4% vs +0.9% vs +3.3% prev
Q1 +0.4% vs Q4 2102

Market had sold going into this number and cable is little changed at 1.5230 from 1.5250 15 mins ago

A break of 1.5230 signals move to 1.5215 ahead of strong demand at 1.5200 that I posted earlier

AUDUSD creeping higher as gold recovers

Posted: 18 Apr 2013 01:26 AM PDT

We’ve seen good correlation in these two this morning

AUDUSD currently just off session highs of 1.0325 after dipping to 1.0291 when I first sat down 4 hours ago

Gold at USD 1383 from lows of 1337 in Asia and 1363 in our session

GBP/USD tech levels

Posted: 18 Apr 2013 01:07 AM PDT

GBP/USD tech levels 18 April

Thanks Mike and good morning everyone. Adam’s drafted me in as an extra pair of hands as we could have some fun and games over the G20 meeting. As Mike mentioned I’ll be focusing on the tech side with some additional scribblings as we go. Any questions please fire away.

My view on the current markets is that they are lacking clear direction and trend. We seem to be in a state of flux. The rout in cable through the beginning of the year finally hit a wall and we’ve gradually moved higher but it’s been a slow affair. Through most of March and April we’ve been in a 400 odd pip range and contained within an upward channel. We’ve also been capped just shy of the 38.2 fib level from the Jan/Mar hi/lo at 1.5422 ( year high so far at 1.5410). We also have some strong resistance in the 1.5420/30 area. Below we have 38.2 fib level from the Mar/Apr lo/hi at 1.5189 and the lower channel line at 1.5150.

On the MA’s, we’re knocking about the Daily 55 ma at current levels and the 100 & 200 ms’a are out of sight at 1.5625 and 1.5762 respectively.

On the 4 hour chart we are hogging the 100 ma at around 1.5245 with the 55 ma above at 1.5315 and the 200 ma below at 1.5155.

With retail sales in mind, any major variation from the expected figure should be contained within strong resistance at 1.5325/35 above and 1.5150/55 orders/tech below.

GBPUSD: sticking to 1.5250

Posted: 18 Apr 2013 01:04 AM PDT

I’m delighted to say we’ve got Ryan with us today and tomorrow covering through the day, and he’ll be posting some technical analysis on cable in a moment but first up here’s where the orders are. Similar to EURUSD we’ve got sellers and buyers lined up in equal measure.

offers at 1.5270, 1.5290, 1.5300,1.5330,1.5350 1.5375

bids at 1.5230,1.5215,1.5200,1.5180,1.5150

EURUSD: good two-way interest noted

Posted: 18 Apr 2013 12:43 AM PDT

After the sharp moves of the past two days here’s where the orders are this morning

offers at 1.3060,1.3080,1.3100,1.3125,1.3155,1.3200

bids at 1.3020, 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2950

German fin min says there is clearly less uncertainty in markets now than a few months ago

Posted: 18 Apr 2013 12:14 AM PDT

on reuters

Mr Schaueble clearly having a laugh at our expense methinks

says Cyprus crisis shows need for join bank supervision
says there is high risk of contagion if Cyrpus not bailed-out
first tranche of Cyprus aid to be paid in May

European equities open firmer

Posted: 18 Apr 2013 12:03 AM PDT

FTSE +0.2%
DAX + 0.2%
CAC40 +0.5%
IBEX +0.5%
FTMIB +0.6%

Coming up this morning

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 11:47 PM PDT

Not a lot in terms of data with only UK Retail Sales of any note but Spain and Italy come looking for money

G20 meeting with fin mins and cental banks starts today so we can expect some rhetoric but little in the way of fireworks.

EURJPY buying lifts USDJPY back above 98.00

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 11:14 PM PDT

Good demand for EURJPY around 127.50 has seen USDJPY move back above 98.00 from lows of 97.86, having been 98.19 when I sat down 2 hours ago but EURUSD only marginally higher at 1.3049.

Expect EURJPY and JPY crosses to once again be prime movers

Nikkei closes down 1.22% at 13,220.07

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 11:05 PM PDT

- 162.82 points

Trading Ideas

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 10:43 PM PDT

Hi everyone,

After the fun and games of the last two days and as Europe opens up let’s have your trading ideas and thoughts in this thread.

Reasons welcome/helpful as always but not obligatory

Option expiries 10am NY cut

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 09:32 PM PDT

USDJPY 96.00,97.00,97.50,98.00,98.50,99.00,99.90,100.00
EURUSD 1.2900,1.2905,1.2910,1.2925,1.2930,1.2950,1.2960,
1.3000,1.3015,1.3145,1,3260
GBPUSD 1.5050,1.5200
USDCHF 0.9330,0.9450
AUDUSD 1.0490,1.0550
NZDUSD 0.8500
EURCHF 1.2230
GBPCAD 1.5675

ForexLive Asia wrap: Active day but narrow ranges

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 09:07 PM PDT

The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today

Nikkei reported that the BOJ is to to raise its CPI forecast and may set spring 2015 goal for 2% inflation target
The big capital outflows expected from Japan have still not materialized, with data for the week ended April 12 showing:
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds - ¥331.9bn (vs. prior of – ¥1139.7bn) and Japan Buying Foreign Stocks - ¥157.7bn (vs. prior of + ¥6.6bn) (5th straight week of negative for these two measures, against expectations Japanese investors would send money offshore in response to BOJ easing)
While Foreign Buying Japan Bonds – ¥175.8bn (vs. prior of + ¥463.6bn)
and Foreign Buying Japan Stocks + ¥1569.0bn (vs. prior of ¥868.6bn)
Japan Merchandise Trade Balance for March -Y362.4bn (vs. expected at -Y522.2bn)
Japan March adjusted merchandise trade balance -Y922.0bn (vs. -Y934.5bn expected)
Japan March Merchandise trade exports +1.1% y/y (vs. +0.2% expected)
Japan March Merchandise trade imports +5.5% y/y (vs. expected at +6.3%)
BOJ member Miyao gave a speech today in which he said he expects investors to buy more foreign bonds – more comments here, and here
Bloomberg obtained a draft of the G20 communique, which affirmed the G20 commitment to avoid competitive devaluations/depreciations and said the global outlook is uneven and somewhat weaker
Tightening policies in China have not been particularly effective at restraining prices, as Chinese March new home prices rose in 68 of 70 cities m/m (vs. 66 in February)
China March FDI +5.7% y/y (vs. +1.9% expected)
Australia: Q1 NAB business confidence +2 (vs. -5 for last quarter)
New Zealand: April ANZ consumer confidence index +3.8% to 119.2 (vs.last month -5.1% at 114.8)
New Zealand: March ANZ job ads +0.7% m/m (vs. +1.8% prior)
Brazil raised its benchmark lending rate to 7.5% (from 7.25%), as broadly expected
North Korea laid out its 'demands' – top of the list is it wants the UN to withdraw sanctions (no surprise there, but at least they've started talking)

Let's get EUR/USD and GBP/USd out of the way. these two had a quiet session , but both found support as the day wore on. The activity, though, was elsewhere today.

USD/JPY traded higher in late New York, the headlines reported from Nikkei helping it along 9see bullets, above). The fund flow data out of Japan, which for the fifth consecutive week showed Japanese investors not net sending money offshore, as has been widely anticipated, saw USD/JPY slip to the day's lows. Moves were not dramatic, though, with bids ahead of 97.50 holding it before it traded back towards 98.30 in early Tokyo afternoon.

AUD and NZD had quiet mornings, but lost ground as gold and metals gold sold off heavily. Again, not dramatic moves in the currencies, though, both AUD and NZD made new lows compared with the New York session, but both failed to carry through, each ticking back to the day's earlier highs as I write.

These people are lucky to be alive – shocking video of fertilzer plant explosion

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 08:56 PM PDT

Fertilizer Plant Explosion Near Waco, Texas

h/t David George-Cosh tweet

Wall Street Journal: ‘May still be too soon to expect massive outflows of Japanese money’ on Japanese

Posted: 17 Apr 2013 08:29 PM PDT

An article in the Wall Street Journal says (in relation to the flow of funds data we saw earlier) that “it may still be too soon to expect massive outflows of Japanese money spurred by the central bank’s bold monetary easing measures. ”

This was the the fifth straight week of selling

“Market talk that Japanese investors will start investing outside Japan has been overblown. …” said Makoto Noji, senior foreign exchange strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

But,

analysts say big investors like life insurers don’t tend to respond immediately to BOJ action since it takes time for them to change their allocations to other investments like overseas bonds.
“It’s probably a bit too soon to expect massive outflows. But what you would expect at least is the reduction in repatriation,” said Bill Diviney, a currency strategist at Barclays

Japanese Slow Sales of Assets (gated)-

So, there’s the two sides … gives us something to look forward to and trade next Thursday too.