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Monday, April 22, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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EURJPY orders

Posted: 22 Apr 2013 01:39 AM PDT

Sellers 130.25,130.50,130.70, 131.00, 131.15, 131.50

Buyers 129.75, 129.50,129.25,129.00,128.80

eurjpy 22 04 2013

 

USDJPY orders

Posted: 22 Apr 2013 01:25 AM PDT

sellers 100.00, 100.20 ( stop loss buying if breached),100.40, 100.50

buyers 99.50,99.25,99.00,98.75,98.50

usdjpy 22 04 2013

EURJPY dragging Euro lower

Posted: 22 Apr 2013 01:07 AM PDT

Failure once again of USDJPY to break above 100 , indeed not even making a serious attempt in Europe so far, has tested the patience of some yen-shorts and we’re seeing EURJPY now showing below decent 130.00 support to post 129.88 before popping back over again as I type. EURUSD has been dragged down through 1.3050 and EURGBP has reversed its early session gains to 0.8590, now back down lower to 0.08566

Next support on EURJPY seen at 129.70 with strong buying interest at 129.50.

AUDUSD heads lower again. Support seen at 1.0250

Posted: 22 Apr 2013 12:52 AM PDT

This pair has looked vulnerable again in Asia and early European trading.

Low posted of 1.0259, currently 1.0263 with buyers lining up at 1.0250. Expect stop-loss selling if breached with more buyers coming in at 1.0220 all the way down to 1.0200.

Sellers in the rally to 1.0285,1.0300 and 1.0320

audusd 4 hr 22 apr

GBPUSD orders

Posted: 22 Apr 2013 12:17 AM PDT

Sellers  1.5250, 1.5280,1.5300.1.5335, 1.5350

Buyers 1.5200 (stop loss selling if breached), 1.5180 1.5160, 1.5120

gbpusd 22 04 2013 1

European equities open firmer

Posted: 22 Apr 2013 12:08 AM PDT

  • FTSE +0.5%
  • DAX +0.8%
  • CAC40 +0.6%
  • IBEX +1.00%
  • FTMIB  +1.4%

BTP/Bund spread tightens

Posted: 22 Apr 2013 12:06 AM PDT

  • yield gap in the 10 year Italian and German bonds has narrowed in early trading in the wake of Napolitano agreeing to serve a second term
  • spread now  284 bp, 14 bps tighter than late Friday trading

EURUSD orders

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 11:46 PM PDT

This is what’s out there this morning

Sellers at 1.3100, 1.3120,1.3150, 1.3180, 1.3200

Buyers at 1.3025,1,3000, 1.2980, 1.2970,1.2950

eurusd 22 04 2013

Trading Ideas

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 11:37 PM PDT

Ok everyone, as a new week unfolds in the wonderfully fickle world of foreign exchange let’s be having your trading thoughts and ideas in this thread.

Reasons welcome/helpful as always, but not obligatory.

Asahi Life -considering adding up to Y50bn in foreign bonds to portfolio

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 11:25 PM PDT

Asahi Life -considering adding up to Y50bn in foreign bonds to portfolio and considering cutting domestic JPY bond holdings.

Headline.

H/t to Alex in the comments, thanks Alex!

See this post earlier: Wall Street Journal article: Japan's four biggest life insurers to unveil their investment plans this week

Japan PM Abe: Can’t continue aggressive fiscal policy forever

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 11:07 PM PDT

Speaking in parliament – on the newswires

Nikkei 225 closes 1.89% higher at 13,568.37

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 11:02 PM PDT

  • + 251.89 on the back of G20 statement

Coming up in this session

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 10:10 PM PDT

Good day one and all,

In the absence of any data of note in this session traders will be looking to find some inspiration/momentum from USDJPY as once again we’re faced with the will-it-won’t- it-break 100 debate.

The defence of this significant barrier has been most impressive so far but does Europe have the ammunition to take it through or will it once again limp back down again as the yen shorts lose faith ? Just how much outflow from Japan is the market expecting ?

And what to make of GBP after it’s rampant, seemingly M&A-led, performance on Friday only to be undone by the Fitch downgrade, which if nothing else brought a reality check back to the market. Bears and bulls will both have reason to be digging in at these levels and it should be an interesting contest.

Will the euro continue to punch above its weight? and is the SNB quietly soaking up a few EURCHF in the dips ?

AUD, CAD and NZD on the brink of a decent run lower? or just another false alarm?

A manic Monday ahead or one of malaise? Let’s hope it at least provides some good opportunities

 

Option expiries 10am NY cut

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 09:39 PM PDT

  • USDJPY 98.25,98.50,08.55,99.25,99.50,100.00,100.50
  • EURUSD 1.2975,1.3000,1.3095,1.3100,1.3110,1.3120
  • GBPUSD 1.5300
  • AUDUSD 1.0205,1.0350,1.0400,1.0410,1.0510
  • USDCAD 1.0175,1.0230
  • NZDUSD 0.8400
  • EURHPY 128.00,129.00,130.00
  • EURGBP 0.8525

ForexLive Asia Wrap: USD/JPY gets above 99.90, runs into big sellers ahead of 100 again

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 09:00 PM PDT

The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today

There were no economic data point releases of note today

  • Japan's finance minister Aso: Yen weakness is a byproduct of deflation-fighting policies & The G20 understand Japan's policies
  • BOJ's Kuroda: Said he told the G20 monetary policy was not aimed at weakening yen. Neither Aso's not Kuroda’s comments are new news – they have been all over the financial wires since Friday.

USD/JPY opened in New Zealand with a gap higher following the announcement from the G20 after Friday's close that Japan had escaped censure over its deflation-fighting policies and their impact in weakening the yen. Of course, news they had escaped censure was already well in the market from mid-Tokyo morning on Friday, so the news came as no surprise – the small gap up just another piece of evidence for how weak yen is. Nevertheless, the selling we saw ahead of 100 from the week of 8 – 12 April was back again, USD/JPY stalling above 99.90 and spending the rest of the session straddling 99.80/85.

EUR/USD, too, had a small gap higher in New Zealand, thereafter trading to above 1.3090 briefly before retracing the gap and filling it in. The jump in EUR came on the back of a number of confluent factors; there was EUR/JPY buying, of course, but also news of Italian president Napolitano being re-elected, which gave a sliver of hope that warring Italian political parties may be able to work out their differences and form a government without Italy having to go back to the polls. It won’t be long before reality bites and that sliver of hope is smashed to pieces, but for a Monday morning it was enough to spook some shorts into covering. Also contributing to the EUR bounce was news over the weekend of ECB governing council member Nowotny saying he thought it was too early for the ECB to consider a rate cut. Again, this was enough to spook shorts.

AUD and NZD both found support, AUD/USD traded up 30 points from its lows as bids around 1.0270 held firm. NZD/USD was the star performer, though – after falling to below 0.8385 as New Zealand opened it rallied to above 0.8450. NZD/JPY buyers were notable (with stops above 84.10/20 triggered).

Gold traded higher during the session, as did GBP/USD.

Reuters article: China seeks to lock iron ore importers into trading platform

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 08:19 PM PDT

An article from Reuters reports on how China is attempting to wrest pricing power away from iron ore miners:

China will refuse to grant new licences to iron ore importers unless they participate in a domestic trading platform, in a fresh move by the world's biggest iron ore consumer to wrestle pricing power away from global miners. … Under new rules, traders and steel mills seeking a new licence to import will now have to trade at least 500,000 tonnes of iron ore on the platform set up by the China Beijing International Mining Exchange (CBMX), a document on the regulations showed. Only Chinese firms are eligible for import licences.

More details at the article: China seeks to lock iron ore importers into trading platform

Interview with Nate Silver – of direct relevance to traders

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 07:27 PM PDT

On this relatively quiet session here’s a useful article from an interview with Nate Silver. Much of the work that Silver does is of relevance to traders.

What do you see as the common theme among bad predictions? What most often leads people astray?

Silver: A lot of it is overconfidence. People tend to underestimate what the uncertainty that is intrinsic to a problem actually is. If you have someone estimate what they think a confidence interval is that's supposed to cover 90 percent of all outcomes, it usually only covers 50 percent. You have upside outcomes and downside outcomes in the market certainly more often than people realize.

Nate Silver: Confidence Kills Predictions

Gold trading higher in Asia today

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 06:35 PM PDT

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Gold is trading quietly higher today – it may be giving AUD a helping hand to recover some lost ground. Or it may be a more broad-based buying, Kiwi and EUR up also.

Wall Street Journal article: Japan’s four biggest life insurers to unveil their investment plans this week

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 06:02 PM PDT

An article from the 19th in the Wall Street Journal says japan’s 4 biggest life insurers, along with many of the smaller ones, begin to unveil their investment plans for the 2013 fiscal year (that started on April 1).

The market will be watching to see the extent of plans to send money offshore, and thus drawing implications for yen weakness.

Big Japanese Investors Weigh Move Abroad
Insurers Are Likely to Move Some Funds Into Foreign Bonds as Allocation Plans Are Released Next Week
The Wall Street Journal is often gated, so if you're unable to access the article try a a Google news search using the headline

AUD/USD levels for today

Posted: 21 Apr 2013 05:39 PM PDT

First thing to note is there are bids in the UAD/USD right here – being worked in the market now around 1.0270. If we can’t hold here then next level lower is 1.0440/50 1.0240/50 (sorry, typo) and stops below 70 should be enough to take us there.

To the topside, 1.0305/15 is selling interest, with some initial selling ahead of 1.0300.

 


at 5:11 PM

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