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• EURUSD back up through 1.3010 as euro pairs advance yet again
• Trading Ideas
• The will they won’t they debate. What the movers and shakers have to say on next weeks ECB announcment
• UK BBA net mortgage lending march: GBP-326 mln vs -230 mln prev
• IFO’s Wohlrabe sees no ECB interest rate cut
• EUR rebounds after IFO drop
• Japan’s Sumitomo life to take greater currency risk
• Italian retail sales feb: m/m sa -0.2% vs -0.5% prev
• German IFO business climate april: 104.4 vs 106.2 exp
• German IFO coming up at the top of the hour
• More on EURCHF
• USDJPY: Flattering to deceive again ?
• European equities make an unimpressive start
• EURCHF stalls at 1.2300 but remains well supported
• Nikkei 225 closes 2.32% higher at 13,843.46
• Swiss consumption indicator march: 1.25 vs 1.24 prev
• Gold climbs to USD1430
• Meiji Yasuda Life plans to buy JPY500 bln of foreign bonds
• More from RBA’s Lowe
• BOE will extend FLS drawdown period by 1 year until Jan 2015

EURUSD back up through 1.3010 as euro pairs advance yet again Posted: 24 Apr 2013 01:55 AM PDT An impressive run back up after the buying interest between 1.2950-70 held post-IFO. The gap back up to 1.2992 pre-IFO has been duly filled and once again the euro shows good resilience. Hearing talk of Chinese-led demand EURJPY buyers continue to support the dips and the pair now trades at 129.60 while EURCHF is back up to 1.2290 after extending early losses to 1.2263

Trading Ideas Posted: 24 Apr 2013 01:45 AM PDT Ok, so we’ve got the IFO out the way. Now what? After all the news, views and info that we’ve posted here so far today it’s your turn to tell everyone what you think. Post your views/strategies here with any reasons should you feel so inclined!

The will they won’t they debate. What the movers and shakers have to say on next weeks ECB announcment Posted: 24 Apr 2013 01:38 AM PDT The pressure is ramping up in the market as to whether the ECB will cut interest rates next week. Various banks are trumpeting their guesses from their corporate towers. Here’s a selection so far. Morgan Stanley expect a cut of 0.25% by June and 0.50% cut in the marginal lending rate and small scale changes in market operations Credit Suisse see a 0.25% cut next week RBS looking for a June cut UBS are going for 0.25% cut next week along with a 0.50% cut in MLR BOA Merrill Lynch thinks that data is not weak enough to cut in May, though chances have increased. Nice bit of fence sitting there. JPM are going for aJune cut of 0.25% Barclay’s say, a cut in May Commerzbank say a May cut more likely with the recent poor PMI releases So there you have it. Some of the worlds finest putting their stalls out. Which way are you swinging? Cut or not cut?

UK BBA net mortgage lending march: GBP-326 mln vs -230 mln prev Posted: 24 Apr 2013 01:32 AM PDT gross lending GBP +7.65 bln vs +7.78 bln prev mortgage approvals march 31,227 vs 30,579 prev credit card borrowing GBP +1oo mln vs 362 mln prev personal loans/overdrafts GBP-512 mln vs -51 mln prev Encouraging rise in approvals but not a game changer right now. Trend for paying off mortgages continues as home owners remain cautious on outlook. GBPUSD still around 1.5254

IFO’s Wohlrabe sees no ECB interest rate cut Posted: 24 Apr 2013 01:18 AM PDT the chief economist also says a rate cut would not make an impact on the German economy sees growth in Q2 after Q1 despite IFO decline says export companies remain confident and construction order books are full EURUSD higher again at 1.2985.. EURJPY 129.24

EUR rebounds after IFO drop Posted: 24 Apr 2013 01:13 AM PDT Looks like the market was short going into that weaker data, and is currently picking up some profit. EURUSD now 1.2972 and EURJPY 129.05 from 128.82 lows. Yesterday this area of 1.2950-70 had good amounts of buying interest and will remain a tough one to crack.Sellers seen in the rallies  though from here to 1.3000

Japan’s Sumitomo life to take greater currency risk Posted: 24 Apr 2013 01:11 AM PDT Good morning everyone. Following the procession of other Japanese life insurance companies, making noises on increasing foreign holdings, Sumitomo life says they may take more currency risk in foreign bond investments as the yen looks less likely to appreciate. They also expect the dollar to trade in an 88-115 range with the euro within 108-145 for 2013/2014

Italian retail sales feb: m/m sa -0.2% vs -0.5% prev Posted: 24 Apr 2013 01:04 AM PDT nsa  y/y -4.8 %  vs  -3% prev

German IFO business climate april: 104.4 vs 106.2 exp Posted: 24 Apr 2013 01:01 AM PDT 106.7 prev current conditions    107.2  vs 109.5 exp   109.9 prev expectations   101.6  vs  103 exp  103.6 prev Not good but not entirely surprising EURUSD posted lows of 1.2954 in a rush.. currently 1.2962

German IFO coming up at the top of the hour Posted: 24 Apr 2013 12:46 AM PDT IFO business climate 106.2 vs 106.7 prev current conditions  109.5 exp vs 109.9 prev After yesterday’s awful PMI data market will be surprised by a strong number

More on EURCHF Posted: 24 Apr 2013 12:37 AM PDT I’m now hearing that there is barrier option interest at 1.2300 which is the capping reason further to my previous post. Swiss names have been seen selling up in the 1.2290′s this morning so perhaps a little more caution required if you’re thinking of buying around these levels of 1.2275.

USDJPY: Flattering to deceive again ? Posted: 24 Apr 2013 12:32 AM PDT This pair continues to be the elephant in the room and  and has made an impressive recovery after yesterday’s sharp fall following the AP twitter account hacking debacle. Currently 99.68 after falling back to 99.47 from Asian highs of 99.77 We’ve been in this scenario a few times now and yet failed to penetrate the huge sell interest ahead of 100 so nothing has really changed. There’s a decent size ( USD500m) option rolling off today at 99.50 which may prove to be a bit of a magnet so we may not see a serious attempt higher until after that, if indeed we are to get one at all. As usual though, as good boy scouts, we should always be prepared.

European equities make an unimpressive start Posted: 24 Apr 2013 12:07 AM PDT FTSE -0.1% DAX  0.0% CAC40 0.0% IBEX +0.0% FTMIB +0.0%

EURCHF stalls at 1.2300 but remains well supported Posted: 23 Apr 2013 11:47 PM PDT I posted my thoughts on this pair earlier this month and in the past 24 hours we’ve seen the biggest moves in a while. Currently stalling at 1.2300 we can expect good short-term demand still at 1.2275-80 with buyers looking to get on board all the way back down to 1.2200. Still not clear whether the SNB are behind this latest move higher, or whether the talk of raising the peg to 1.2500 has any foundation but it wouldn’t surprise me if so, and I’m hearing of a major swiss name buying over USDCHF2.5 bln in the past 24 hours. I, for one, will be not be shorting this pair at any point and would sell only to book some profit.Keep buying dips still seems the way to go.

Nikkei 225 closes 2.32% higher at 13,843.46 Posted: 23 Apr 2013 11:07 PM PDT + 313.81 points highest level since june 2008

Swiss consumption indicator march: 1.25 vs 1.24 prev Posted: 23 Apr 2013 11:00 PM PDT Nothing of note but feb revised down from 1.26

Gold climbs to USD1430 Posted: 23 Apr 2013 10:43 PM PDT Early buying of the shiny stuff which has made impressive gains since I sat down about 2 hours ago. AUD finding support on the back of it.

Meiji Yasuda Life plans to buy JPY500 bln of foreign bonds Posted: 23 Apr 2013 10:35 PM PDT plans to increase both currency hedged and unhedged foreign bonds, but slightly more hedged cautious about domestic bond yields sees USDJPY in a range of 85-105 to year end march 2014 The latest of the Japanese life insurers to outline their investment plans. Nothing of note and in line with previous announcements from others.

More from RBA’s Lowe Posted: 23 Apr 2013 10:26 PM PDT easing CPI growth reflects downward pressure on trade and supply chain, restraining prices Not exactly difficult to work that one out

BOE will extend FLS drawdown period by 1 year until Jan 2015 Posted: 23 Apr 2013 10:18 PM PDT the widely expected announcement  that I reported yesterday, just released incentives for banks will heavily directed toward lending to small and medium-sized business BOE will exted FLS facility to certain non-bank providers of credit such as leasing companies, factoring firms and mortgage/housing credit firms Nothing to move markets here

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