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• ECB’s Joerg Asmussen has confidence in France
• Cable does what cable loves
• More from Merkel: Higher interest rates would be better for Germany
• Chancellor Merkel wants bank shareholders to suffer losses in future bail-outs
• Cable sellers seen but a good battle going on
• GBP/USD blasts a cent higher: 1.5400 the pivot point
• UK Q1 GDP prov: m/m +0.3% vs +0.1% exp
• EURUSD orders
• EURGBP orders
• GBPUSD orders
• Double risk for cable over GDP
• ECB’s Assmussen says interest rates that are too low for too long can lead to distortion
• EU’s Rehn says fiscal consolidation remains necessary
• Pound lower in early European trading
• Dai Ichi Life will maintain holdings of foreign bonds in 2013/14
• European equities mixed on the open
• Spanish unemployment at record levels
• Trading Ideas
• UK Q1 GDP coming up at 08.30 GMT
• Nikkei 225 closes +0.6% at 13,926.08

ECB’s Joerg Asmussen has confidence in France Posted: 25 Apr 2013 02:09 AM PDT Confident FRance will take necessary reform steps to improve competitiveness

Cable does what cable loves Posted: 25 Apr 2013 02:05 AM PDT Sometimes trading cable you have to keep one eye on the clock. Watching how long it stays above or below a level can give you some indication as the where it will go next. In usual cable fashion it spent a good 10-12 minutes at the 1.54 handle. As Mike pointed out sellers at 1.54100 capped the move up. The fact that it didn’t then drop below 1.54 was key. The last drop took us to 1.5404/5 and then cable does what it does best and blasts all and sundry out of it’s way. We’re into resistance at 1.5440 with the next resistance at 1.5500 and the upper trend line above there at 1.5510. If we take 1.5450 then up we go again. I think that surpassing 1.55 will be a stretch too far though.

More from Merkel: Higher interest rates would be better for Germany Posted: 25 Apr 2013 02:00 AM PDT Euro higher on this says ECB in a difficult situation due to EU diversity

Chancellor Merkel wants bank shareholders to suffer losses in future bail-outs Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:58 AM PDT but says her govt rejects any standardized European deposit guarantee for the foreseeable future out just now on the wires

Cable sellers seen but a good battle going on Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:53 AM PDT I’m hearing of good selling interest by US and Asian names up here around  1.5410 ahead of the strong sell interest/resistance at 1.5425. But as Ryan points out 1.5400 is a good pivot now and is holding for the moment. Let battle ensue !

GBP/USD blasts a cent higher: 1.5400 the pivot point Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:44 AM PDT Following the surprisingly good GDP print cable is up over a cent and is playing with the 1.5400 level. If it can hold above here for a good few minutes then the levels at 1.5420/25 will be in real danger

UK Q1 GDP prov: m/m +0.3% vs +0.1% exp Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:30 AM PDT y/y  +0.6% vs +0.3% exp  +0.2% prev… highest gain since q4 2011 service sector output +0.6 q/q industrial output +0.2% q/q construction output +2.5% q/q Much better than expected GBPUSD up through 1.5400 from 1.5290 Next resistance seen at 1.5425

EURUSD orders Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:29 AM PDT Sellers 1.3065,1.3085,1.3100,1.3120 Buyers  1.3000,1.2985,1.2950,1.2920

EURGBP orders Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:27 AM PDT Sellers 0.8535,0.8560,0.8580,0.8600,0.8620 Buyers  0.8500,0.8485,0.8455,0.8435

GBPUSD orders Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:24 AM PDT As we head into UK Q1 GDP at the bottom of the hour here’s what we have Sellers 1.5325, 1.5335, 1.5350,1.5400,1.5425 Buyers 1.5270, 1.5250, 1.5220, 1.5200,1.5170, 1.5150, 1.5130

Double risk for cable over GDP Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:19 AM PDT In 30 minutes we have the first UK GDP figure for 2013. It’s expected in at 0.0%. If the figure is negative then we enter a triple dip recession. That’s not something the coalition government wants on their watch. Trading wise, the fact of recession doesn’t matter so much. The UK economy is flat lining so movement above and below zero should be expected. There’s two negative factors to look at for where cable goes. Obviously a bad print say will be a sell. -0.1 to 0.5 will see us off probably a good cent. -0.5 or more will see cable crumble. Even a zero print will see cable sold in anticipation of further monetary policy action be it rate cuts or increased QE. A positive number could also illicit  a large jump also 100 pips or more as rate cuts and QE get put on the back burner. So we have a 2/1 trading scope. 2 possible bad scenarios versus 1 positive. In such cases it’s wise to look at the longer chart timescales to see where the bigger levels are that could contain the moves. As you will see from the chart we are still contained. within a long term channel and a shorter term one.   I would suggest that the moves may be contained by the 38.2 fib level and previous high up in the 1.5410/20 area on the upside, and the lower channel line down around 1.5200 and more so the 200 ma and lower short term trend line at 1.5180/90 If you’re going to trade it then best of luck.

ECB’s Assmussen says interest rates that are too low for too long can lead to distortion Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:06 AM PDT the effect of lower interest rates on EU periphery has limited impact says delaying fiscal comsolidation is not an easy way out More from the wires

EU’s Rehn says fiscal consolidation remains necessary Posted: 25 Apr 2013 01:01 AM PDT but sess the pace of fiscal consolidation slowing to 0.75% in EU in 2013 vs 1.5% in 2012 fiscal strategies must be country specific banking union is key to dealing with EU fragmentation On the wires.. Nothing game-changing

Pound lower in early European trading Posted: 25 Apr 2013 12:47 AM PDT GBPUSD down to 1.5290 from 1.5325 when I sat down almost 4 hours ago Apart from decent resistance around 1.5335 the move has been accelerated by good buying interest in EURGBP by a UK  clearing bank according to my sources. 45 minutes to GDP…

Dai Ichi Life will maintain holdings of foreign bonds in 2013/14 Posted: 25 Apr 2013 12:16 AM PDT they increased unhedged foreign bonds and domestic yen bonds in 2012/13 reduced its hedged foreign bonds in 2012/13 says its domestic bond investment will depend on yields levels sees USDJPY 95-115 in 2013/14 The latest ( and 2nd largest) of the Japanese life insurance companies to publish their investment plans, and yet another expressing great caution. Not what the yen bears want to hear right now.

European equities mixed on the open Posted: 25 Apr 2013 12:09 AM PDT FTSE  +0.2% DAX +0.1% CAC40 -0.2% IBEX -0.3% FTMIB -0.04%

Spanish unemployment at record levels Posted: 25 Apr 2013 12:05 AM PDT now at 27.2% vs 26.4% exp and 26.02% prev Not good

Trading Ideas Posted: 24 Apr 2013 11:52 PM PDT Ok, so we’ve had a bit of movement overnight, but a quiet start so far, apart from yen pairs having a little dip, so what do you think now ? Post your ideas/thoughts/strategies here. Reasons welcome as usual.

UK Q1 GDP coming up at 08.30 GMT Posted: 24 Apr 2013 11:17 PM PDT It’s the only data of note coming up in our session but it’s also one of the most eagerly awaited/talked about in recent days/weeks. Will the data show the UK slipping into triple-dip recession? Forecasts for today’s first reading say no, with expectations of growth being shown of m/m +0.1% vs -0.3% and y/y +0.3% vs +0.2% Recent data has not been so good for the UK and it’s difficult to see where any significant improvement on the forecasts could come from but hey, we should always expect surprises in these markets. Even so, +0.1-0.3% is not exactly signs of an economy full of growth. Everything must be kept in perspective. Either way GBPUSD remains a coin-flip at these levels ( 1.5325) given the tight trading band of 1.5200-1.5400 recently and today’s data release should provide opportunity still for both bulls and bears.

Nikkei 225 closes +0.6% at 13,926.08 Posted: 24 Apr 2013 11:08 PM PDT

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