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• Italian business confidence april: 87.6 vs 88.9 exp
• EU April consumer sentiment -22.3 vs -22.3 exp
• Sell orders capping the rallies for now
• A signpost to further gains in gold
• German trade association cuts export forecast to 3% from 5% prior
• Cable looking for a break out
• Italian wage inflation march: m/m 0.0% as expected
• Euro marches higher still
• European equities open firmer
• GBPUSD holds overnight gains as more demand seen
• Italy: 10 year bond yields fall below 4%
• EURUSD orders
• Euro finds good demand as Europe opens
• Italy: Moodys says it’s too early to say whether ESM/ECB help will still be required
• Data coming up in this session
• UK business lending set to rise 3% in 2013
• Option expiries 10am NY cut
• ForexLive Asia Wrap: Japan and China holidays ensured thin liquidity conditions today
• Australian PM Gillard: RBA to get the maximum opportunity to keep rates low
• Australian PM Gillard speaking now

Italian business confidence april: 87.6 vs 88.9 exp Posted: 29 Apr 2013 02:02 AM PDT 88.9 prev

EU April consumer sentiment -22.3 vs -22.3 exp Posted: 29 Apr 2013 02:00 AM PDT Prior reading -23.5 Business climate -0.93 vs -0.89 exp. Prior -0.86 Economic sentiment 88.6 vs 89.3 exp. Prior 90 Industrial sentiment -13.8 vs-13.5 exp. Prior -12.5 Services sentiment -11.1 vs -7 exp. Prior -6.7 Consumer inflation expectation 15.8 5 ticks down for your money on the release. Consumers in the EZ not feeling too confident at the minute.

Sell orders capping the rallies for now Posted: 29 Apr 2013 01:57 AM PDT The  strong sell orders at 1.5550 on GBPUSD and 1.3100-20 on EURUSD have held the rallies for the moment. Currently back down to 1.5523 and 1.3084. Expect demand in the dips still but hopefully you managed to pick up a few pips on that sell info.

A signpost to further gains in gold Posted: 29 Apr 2013 01:50 AM PDT We had quite a crumble on gold on Friday afternoon. After peeping just above the rising trendline a late bout of selling saw us off around $36.   The speed of the sell off was probably down to twitchy longs seeing the price come off the high just going into the close and taking profits. It shows that the market is still nervous but the fact that we have bounced pretty quickly shows that confidence is starting to return and the push higher is likely to continue. Buying flash dips looks like the good short term play.

German trade association cuts export forecast to 3% from 5% prior Posted: 29 Apr 2013 01:34 AM PDT Cuts Imports forecast to 1% from 5.5% (Nov f’cast) Concerned about situation in Italy as they do not seemed interested in structural reform Trade won’t contribute as usual to growth in 2013. Sees economy expanding between 0.7% & 0.8% The news is sending the euro lower and down towards 1.3080. The BGA is the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services. It is the leading organization for the wholesale, foreign trade and service sector in the Federal Republic of Germany.

Cable looking for a break out Posted: 29 Apr 2013 01:22 AM PDT Good morning everyone. After Fridays failed attempts at  1.55 traders took advantage of the poor early week liquidity to push the pair over and into strong gains. The upper trend line of the short term channel is currently being contested.   A decent break here will target the 100 dma at 1.5573. Later this week we have Manufacturing PMI(Wed) and Services PMI (Fri). Manufacturing and production has been the weak link in regards to the UK economy but services have been rebounding strongly. As services make up around 70% of GDP this is the figure to watch. A poor Mfg PMI could take the shine off the rally but it would be temporary. A good services figure will likely push the pair even higher.

Italian wage inflation march: m/m 0.0% as expected Posted: 29 Apr 2013 01:08 AM PDT y/y -1.4% as expected

Euro marches higher still Posted: 29 Apr 2013 12:48 AM PDT The solid early start continues with EURUSD now challenging sell orders at 1.3100, EURGBP higher at 0.8430 and EURJPY at 128.30, also giving support to USDJPY as I suggested previously. Asian and middle eastern names being cited as the sellers between 1.3100-20

European equities open firmer Posted: 29 Apr 2013 12:19 AM PDT FTSE +0.1% DAX +0.3% CAC40 +0.6% IBEX +0.5% FTMIB +0.6%

GBPUSD holds overnight gains as more demand seen Posted: 29 Apr 2013 12:11 AM PDT Having given up the reported strong barrier resistance at 1.5500 in Asia we’re seeing some good consolidation in this pair with buying interest now at 1.5500-10. There is talk of dividend payment demand also going through today which should lend further support. Sellers noted at 1.5550 ( barrier option interest noted) , 1.5575 and 1.5600-10 Currently breaking through Asian highs at 1.5530

Italy: 10 year bond yields fall below 4% Posted: 28 Apr 2013 11:56 PM PDT 10 year spread vs bunds tightens to 278 bps The optimism in Italy continues, for the moment at least. EURUSD steady at 1.3066

EURUSD orders Posted: 28 Apr 2013 11:52 PM PDT Sellers  1.3075,1.3100, 1.3125,1.3150, 1.3175 ,1.3200 Buyers 1.2990,1.2980,1.2950

Euro finds good demand as Europe opens Posted: 28 Apr 2013 11:30 PM PDT With Italian bond futures higher on the open after the formation of a new government, and the usual expected month-end Bundesbank demand for EURGBP, we’ve seen the euro start the week on a firmer tone. EURUSD is up to Asian  highs of 1.3068 but sellers still seen at 1.3075 with larger interest behind that at 1.3100. EURGBP is up at 0.8418 from 0.8405 having failed again to penetrate good support at 0.8400, while EURJPY buying is lending support to both EURUSD and USDJPY as traders tread carefully into a new week.

Italy: Moodys says it’s too early to say whether ESM/ECB help will still be required Posted: 28 Apr 2013 10:42 PM PDT senior official on reuters says the ratings ageny will review the new Italian government’s abilty to persue reforms situation remains difficult Nothing we wouldn’t have expected here

Data coming up in this session Posted: 28 Apr 2013 10:02 PM PDT Good day everyone, and I hope you all had a great week-end. Not a lot in the way of key data for this session with German CPI figures the highlight later, and US CPI out after that. Asian trading has been thin with Japan out on Golden Week but we’ve seen USDJPY fall lower again and GBPUSD break up through barrier option resistance at 1.5500 so there’s plenty for Europe to get its teeth into if it wishes. Have a good session Times BST ( GMT +1)

UK business lending set to rise 3% in 2013 Posted: 28 Apr 2013 09:46 PM PDT The latest quarterly report from accountants Ernst&Young says that the effect of the UK’s FLS ( Funding for Lending) scheme, last week extended by the BOE for another year to 2015,  will start to have some impact along with other key factors. The highly regarded E&Y’s Item Club forecasts that this year UK business lending is set to rise by GBP440 bln, the first rise since 2008, and by 8.7% in 2014 to GBP477 bln. Good news for the UK, if true, as getting money out into the economy has been a real drag on growth. Time will tell. Read more, and other articles of interest, here

Option expiries 10am NY cut Posted: 28 Apr 2013 09:29 PM PDT USDJPY 96.50,97.50,98.00,98.30,98.80,100.00,100.25 EURUSD  1.2700,1.2800,1.2850,1.2900 AUDUSD 1.0100,1.0160,1.0200,1.0260,1.0280,1.0285,1.0295,1.0300,1.0365,1.0450 AUDJPY 102.00 USDCAD 1.0340 NZDUSD -.8295,0.8350 EURGBP 0.8600,0.8640

ForexLive Asia Wrap: Japan and China holidays ensured thin liquidity conditions today Posted: 28 Apr 2013 09:02 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today The Australian government announced a $12 billion government deficit is expected for the 2012/13 financial year UK: Lloyds April Business Barometer 27 (vs. 20 prior) UK: Hometrack April Housing Survey +0.3% m/m (vs. +0.3% prior) UK: Hometrack April Housing Survey +0.2% y/y (vs. +0.0% prior) The Greek parliament passed bills needed for further bail-out loans Yonhap News Agency says North Korea is preparing to conduct large-scale combined air and land exercises along its Yellow Sea coast, which may involve the launch of a missile or missiles The Wall Street Journal's Hilsenrath wrote that inflation is now lower than the Fed wants It was a Japanese and Chinese holiday today, ensuring little on the way of market-moving news and headlines. Nevertheless, there was some significant movement in the currencies. GBP/USD continued devouring shorts, cracking 1.5500 on its way to the day's high of 1.5520/25. EUR/USD had a range bound session after getting above 1.3065 in the early New Zealand/Australia morning. It retraced all of its early gain then sat around 1.3045/50  for the balance of the session. USD/JPY traded lower, breaking the US Friday session low to trade down to 97.35 before finding buyers again. Its a holiday week in Japan, so moves are likely to remain choppy. AUD and NZD both found pre-FOMC support, both higher by 25-30 points on the day. Chatter is increasing about the potential for further RBA rate cuts over the next 12 months as the news flow continues to turn against the Australian economy. Yield-chasers didn't seem to mind today, though.

Australian PM Gillard: RBA to get the maximum opportunity to keep rates low Posted: 28 Apr 2013 08:31 PM PDT Also: Government aims to keep inflation in check - AUD/USD not moving much, touch higher just around 1.0310

Australian PM Gillard speaking now Posted: 28 Apr 2013 08:22 PM PDT Gillard speaking at a news conference now. She is delivering the news the press were carrying earlier: Australia morning press: $12 billion government deficit expected AUD/USD stable just above 1.0300.

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