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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Euro dips on lower inflation reading

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 02:04 AM PDT

Adding to the case for an ECB rate cut on Thursday

EURUSD dipped to 1.3054 but ran into good support again.Now 1.3065

EURGBP  and EURJPY lower at 0.8430 and 127.60 but off the 0.8425 and 127.45 lows

Italian April CPI 0.3% vs 0.6% exp m/m. 1.3% vs 1.6% y/y

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 02:00 AM PDT

  • m/m prior 2.3%
  • y/y prior 1.8%

Another eurozone member posting lower inflation. The case for a rate cut  increases.

The decision the ECB has is that in light of falling inflation do they cut rates before or after their target is met?

EUR/USD posts a low of 1.3053 before recovering to 1.3068

Eurozone unemployment rate march: 12.1% vs 12.1% exp

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 02:00 AM PDT

  • 12% prev

Italian April consumer prices 0.1% vs 0.2% exp m/m

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 02:00 AM PDT

  • Prior 0.2%
  • y/y 1.2% vs 1.4% exp. Prior 1.6%

Eurozone inflation flash april: y/y 1.2% vs 1.6% exp

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 02:00 AM PDT

  • 1.7% prev

EURGBP orders

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:49 AM PDT

Option expiry today at 0.8475 which has raised some interest but it’s not large so I think the rally has been more month-end buying related.

Currently back down to 0.8437

Sellers 0.8480,08500,0.8525,0.8550,0.8580,0.8600

Buyers 0.8430,0.8410, 0.8400.0.8390 ( stop loss selling if breached)

eurgbp order 30 apr

Italian minister: Not feasible to seek new deficit limit from EU

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:46 AM PDT

Especially after your new PM stated they will meet all their commitments to Europe.

Gold taking a pop. Up $17 in quick time

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:40 AM PDT

Looking for reason for the move but coming up blank at the moment.

We could have some end of month position adjustment.

 

UK mortgage approvals march:53.5k vs 52.5k exp

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:30 AM PDT

  • 51.7k prev

Slightly better but still at low levels

GBPUSD little changed at 1.5496

UK March consumer credit +0.50bn vs +0.50bn exp

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:30 AM PDT

  • Prior 0.60bn

UK mortgage lending march: +0.40 bln vs 0.60 bln exp

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:30 AM PDT

  • 0.80 bln prev revised down from 0.90 bln

UK March money supply -0.9% vs -0.50% prior

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:30 AM PDT

  • Excluding intermediate other financial companies +0.3% from -0.2% prior.
  • Lending to individuals  +0.9% from +1.3% prior
  • Lending to non financial businesses -0.6% from -2.0%

A drop in lending to individuals is countered by an increase in lending to non financial business although business lending is still in negative territory.

GBPUSD orders

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:22 AM PDT

UK lending data coming up at the bottom of the hour.. Here’s whats out there

Sellers 1.5515,1.5550,1.5575,1.5600

Buyers 1.5470,1.5450,1.5425,1.5415,1.5400

gbpusd orders 30 apr

EURJPY orders

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:14 AM PDT

Sellers 128.25,128.50,128.75,129.00,129.50,130.00

Buyers 127.50,127.30,127.00, 126.50

eurjpy orders 30 apr

 

Italian unemployment rate march: 11.5% vs 11.7% exp

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 01:00 AM PDT

  • 11.6% prev

German unemployment total april: nsa 3.020 mln vs 3.00 mln exp

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 12:56 AM PDT

  • 3.1 mln prev
  • sa total  2.938 mln vs 2.935 mln

German unemployment rate april: 6.9% vs 6.9% exp

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 12:56 AM PDT

  • 6.9% prev

German unemployment change april: sa +4k vs +2k exp

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 12:55 AM PDT

  • +13k prev

Slightly worse than forecast but EURUSD little changed at 1.3078.

Eurozone unemployment awaited at 09.00 GMT

 

Trading Ideas

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 12:40 AM PDT

As we head into the next hour of data releases here’s a thread for your trading thoughts and ideas given the early European moves

Reasons welcome as always

EURUSD orders

Posted: 30 Apr 2013 12:25 AM PDT

The sell interest between 1.3120-30 that I mentioned earlier has capped the rally once again.

EURUSD now down to 1.3070. Buyers seen at 1.3050-60

Sellers 1.3110, 1.3120,1.3130, 1.3150,1.3170,1.3200

Buyers 1.3060,1.3050, 1.3030, 1.3015,1.3000,1.2980,1.2950

eurusd orders 30 apr

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