Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• Japan press: Japan, U.S. consider deploying drone to monitor North Korea
• BOJ’s Cyprus variation – says ‘Use it or lose it’
• Soros’ Chinese takeaway
• New series of Survivor – set in JPMorgan’s boardroom
• We’ve got t-shirts to give away
• Trading 101: Keep it simple
• Jon Hilsenrath: Friday’s NFP shows talk of an early end to the Fed’s bond-buying ‘might have been premature’
• China economists ‘livid’ at what they view as an effective yen devaluation
• Why improving the job market is so important to the Fed
• Watanabe: Too Early to Judge BOJ Easing Steps
• North Korea provocations just hot air
• Going to have to keep an eye on this
• Australia: Measure of business confidence falls slightly from February
• Despite North Korea’s warning to embassies, none have departed Pyongyang
• Reports continue of North Korean – fueled tensions
• Seaside rock
• Key data missing from Bank of Cyprus records
• UK set to become net importer of wheat for first time 10 years
• Italian econ min to meet EU’s Rehn on Monday
• Italian govt to pay EUR 40 bln of state debts to private companies

Japan press: Japan, U.S. consider deploying drone to monitor North Korea Posted: 06 Apr 2013 05:53 PM PDT Yeah, ‘monitor’.  As in ‘I’m gonna monitor you to kingdom come’ Japan Times

BOJ’s Cyprus variation – says ‘Use it or lose it’ Posted: 06 Apr 2013 05:43 PM PDT The Financial Times’ take of Thursday’s new BOJ policies: By pledging to degrade the value of hoarded cash through inflation and all but snatching the safe-haven government bond market away from private investors, analysts say the Bank of Japan governor is trying to force citizens, banks and companies to deploy their money in ways that do more to boost the economy. The FT says that ‘if things go according to plan’: the result will be increased consumer spending more bank lending, and more private-sector investment George Soros’ take was: "If the yen starts to fall, which it has done, and people in Japan realise that it's liable to continue and want to put their money abroad, then the fall may become like an avalanche," Japan's savers told to use it or lose it (Financial Times, may be gated) The qualitative and quantitative easing from the BOJ is a negative for the yen – as has played out in the markets since Thursday’s announcement (link to the BOJ’s Introduction of the “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing” – PDF)

Soros’ Chinese takeaway Posted: 06 Apr 2013 05:43 PM PDT In an interview, Soros praised China’s system of financial regulation But warned that Beijing faces near term “exceptional difficulties” in its economic transition Soros has an interesting view of China banking: “The Chinese regulators have a much closer and more intimate knowledge of what goes on inside the banks,” he said. “The lack of detailed knowledge in the West is quite amazing. And that was the reason why things went so wrong” Says its unlikely local governments will default on their debts He cautioned investors to stay away from Chinese real estate in the short term Good weekend reading, and important background information for AUD traders. George Soros tempers praise for Beijing with warning on risks

New series of Survivor – set in JPMorgan’s boardroom Posted: 06 Apr 2013 05:43 PM PDT Its looking like the tribe may well vote against Mr. Dimon at next months annual meeting. Dimon did not fare well in the ‘London Whale’ challenge, costing his team big time. JPMorgan Works to Avert a Split of the Chief and Chairman Roles

We’ve got t-shirts to give away Posted: 06 Apr 2013 11:46 AM PDT I’ve tracked down Ozzie and Jimmy Boy for winning contests this week. Jimmy Boy is all the way in New Zealand but we have tied the shirt to a great white shark and pointed it in his general direction. I have been working at ForexLive for two years and just got my first t-shirt in the mail today. There are a couple designs for the new ones and they look great — can’t say the same for the model. Around mid-month we aim to launch a brand new site and we will be having giveaways galore.

Trading 101: Keep it simple Posted: 06 Apr 2013 08:51 AM PDT Thursday afternoon, it was EUR/USD breaking the 200-day moving average. Friday it was the S&P 500 holding the mid-March low. There are lots of people out there trying to make technical analysis complicated but buying EUR/USD yesterday on the break of the 200-day moving average and buying stocks today when the mid-March low wouldn’t break wasn’t a complicated strategy. Keep it simple. Same thing with fundamentals. Oh, the Bank of Japan doubled it’s asset purchase program? Sell the yen. Non-farm payrolls were terrible and USD/JPY went up anyway? Then USD/JPY is probably going to keep going higher. No one is perfect and all the rules are meant to be broken some time but the crazier a market gets, the better the simple rules work.

Jon Hilsenrath: Friday’s NFP shows talk of an early end to the Fed’s bond-buying ‘might have been premature’ Posted: 06 Apr 2013 08:16 AM PDT Jon Hilsenrath is sometimes described as a ‘mouthpiece’ for the Federal Reserve, such is his perceived connectedness with the bank. As such, it is worth paying to attention to what it is he writes and speaks about. “the Labor Department report released Friday (i.e., the NFP figure) could raise doubts inside the Fed about how quickly the job market is healing and deflate (the) hope (of beginning to reduce the size of the bond buying program).” There are cautionary flags in Friday’s report “The monthly gain in payroll employment, at 88,000 in March, was the smallest since June” “hourly earnings were up just 1.8% from a year earlier, meaning little upward momentum in household purchasing power or inflation” Jobs Report Reinforces Fed Wariness About Premature End to QE3 (Wall Street Journal – does not appear to be gated)

China economists ‘livid’ at what they view as an effective yen devaluation Posted: 06 Apr 2013 08:16 AM PDT the South China Morning Post reports that Many of China’s top economists are livid at what they view as an effective currency devaluation by Japan see Japan’s plan to double its monetary base within two years as “blackmail” PBOC should sell more yuan and buy the US dollar to push down the yuan’s value Japan stimulus will start currency war, say Chinese economists Just what we need, more tensions between Japan and China …

Why improving the job market is so important to the Fed Posted: 06 Apr 2013 08:16 AM PDT Eric Rosengren, Boston Fed President, gave a speech on Friday; in it he pointed out why improving employment prospects in the US is important to the Federal reserve: Time out of work can depress wages for years to come Lost earnings can weigh on overall growth over time, especially so in times of persistently high unemployment Why Curing Job Market Is So Important to Fed (Wall Street Journal, gated)

Watanabe: Too Early to Judge BOJ Easing Steps Posted: 06 Apr 2013 08:15 AM PDT Japan’s former top financial diplomat said it was too early to say whether the Bank of Japan’s latest easing steps would work Really? Did he? I would have thought 36 hours was plenty of time to judge whether the policy to turn around three decades of economic disaster had been successful. Sheesh. Japan Watanabe: Too Early to Judge BOJ Easing Steps (Wall Street Journal, gated) Despite the crazy headline the article is interesting: Japanese companies are increasing investments in the US, citing reduced energy costs there Hiroshi Watanabe was a former senior official at Japan’s finance ministry, and is now now the chief executive of the government-owned Japan Bank for International Cooperation.

North Korea provocations just hot air Posted: 06 Apr 2013 08:15 AM PDT If you’ve not much going on this weekend this is an interesting article on the recent North Korean provocations: ANALYSIS: North Korea's bellicose rhetoric only tells part of story The article compares the actions being taken in North Korea at present with past actions, and finds much less readiness this time.

Going to have to keep an eye on this Posted: 06 Apr 2013 08:15 AM PDT Concerns about a deadly new strain of bird flu intensified Friday as the disease claimed a sixth life in eastern China and agricultural authorities in Shanghai ordered a wide-scale slaughter of poultry in an effort to stem its spread. Its very sad and scary for those effected by this new strain of virus. From a foreign exchange perspective its going to be important to monitor the effects that may occur on the Chinese economy. Weaker Chinese growth is not going to be a positive for currencies such as AUD. Concerns Grow About New Avian-Flu Strain (Wall Street Journal, may be gated)

Australia: Measure of business confidence falls slightly from February Posted: 06 Apr 2013 08:14 AM PDT   The March Roy Morgan Business Confidence index has come in at 122.9 (vs. 122.0 in February). The survey is not closely followed:

Despite North Korea’s warning to embassies, none have departed Pyongyang Posted: 06 Apr 2013 08:12 AM PDT Despite North Korea’s recent warning to foreign diplomatic missions to leave Pyongyang, no embassy has yet to make a move out of the communist state, Seoul officials said Saturday. I would have thought any excuse would do to get out of Pyongyang. Apparently not. Source: South Korean press

Reports continue of North Korean – fueled tensions Posted: 06 Apr 2013 07:55 AM PDT Foreign diplomats in Pyongyang were issued with evacuation advisories on Saturday: Pyongyang warned embassies it could not guarantee their safety if a conflict broke out and that they should consider leaving. North warns envoys to prep for evacuation How do you score a posting as a diplomat to Pyongyang? Must have really ****ed off the boss, right?

Seaside rock Posted: 06 Apr 2013 07:20 AM PDT Ok, before I head out let’s lighten things up and pay tribute to my beloved football team Southend United, aka the mighty Shrimpers, who play in the Johnstone Paints Trophy final at Wembley tomorrow. The excitment it’s creating in a life-long fan of this seaside team, ever-present in the lower leagues of the english game, may be lost on a lot of you around the globe, but it’s a good excuse for a little nod from the Boss himself.  Enjoy. Wembley here I come !

Key data missing from Bank of Cyprus records Posted: 06 Apr 2013 06:56 AM PDT It looks like someone’s got something to hide. Or shall we believe it’s an accident? BBC carries the story here

UK set to become net importer of wheat for first time 10 years Posted: 06 Apr 2013 06:25 AM PDT The UK is running out of wheat due to the ongoing cold and wet conditions and prospect of an awful harvest with many farmers not even having planted this year. This interesting piece in today’s Independent explains what’s going on and gives an insight into the world of wheat trading. Best we get the pound rallying, and fast !

Italian econ min to meet EU’s Rehn on Monday Posted: 06 Apr 2013 06:13 AM PDT Mr Grilli will be having a chat with Mr Rehn in Brussels on monday to explain today’s decree on state debts as per my previous post govt source quoted on reuters just now

Italian govt to pay EUR 40 bln of state debts to private companies Posted: 06 Apr 2013 06:09 AM PDT Italy’s caretaker govt today approved a plan to pay  40 billion euros of debts owed by the state to private companies over the next 12 months. The decree is intended to provide vital liquidity to cash-strapped firms to help tackle the deep recession. Said it was committed to not breaching the European Union’s deficit ceiling of 3% of GDP Will monitor the situation in September and would be able to adopt corrective measures if the deficit was heading over a “precautionary” limit of 2.9%

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