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• EUR/AUD giving a lift to EUR/USD
• Pound stands proud after PMI data
• UK manufacturing PMI april :49.8 vs 48.5 exp
• Coming up at the bottom of the hour: UK april manufacturing PMI
• GBP/USD still hanging from the line
• BOE’s Tucker upbeat on UK economy
• FTSE up 0.2% on the opening
• EURGBP demand capping cable
• Trading Ideas
• Nikkei 225 closes down -0.44% at 13,799.35
• UK Nationwide house price index april:m/m -0.1% vs +0.3% exp
• UK’s Osborne to exert more influence over the Old Lady
• An ECB rate cut is unlikely to help the unemployed
• Data coming up today
• Option expiries 10am NY cut
• ForexLive Asia Wrap: Chinese Manufacturing PMI below expectations
• Bloomberg article: BOJ Veterans to ECB Pick Demographic Holes in Abe
• RBA’s Edey: Australian banking system and crisis management is more resilient than most
• USA: “Oil in the North Dakota Bakken Formation is more than double the previous estimates”
• Australian Treasurer Swan: Australia Will Remain in Deficit Longer Than Forecast

EUR/AUD giving a lift to EUR/USD Posted: 01 May 2013 01:47 AM PDT With the European holiday today we’re going to have to get our inspiration from somewhere else. Last week I wrote about the European recovery and that trading opportunities may not be in the majors. EUR/AUD is another pair that will benefit from the reversal of safe haven flows. After putting in a double bottom at the beginning of April at around 1.2200/10 and bang on the 61.8 fib from the Jul12/Jan13 lo/hi, we’ve marched up over 500 ticks. We are again pushing the monthly highs at current levels of 1.2740 with the month high at 1.2770. This is underpinning EUR/USD which is rising even as EUR/GBP falls. Just like my reasoning with EUF/CHF, a rate cut on Thursday could have the pair knee jerk lower before turning around on the thought that steps are being taken to spark a recovery in the European economy. As I write EUR/USD is looking to take  on 1.3200 while EUR/AUD is at 1.2238 with AUD/USD looking soft once again.

Pound stands proud after PMI data Posted: 01 May 2013 01:45 AM PDT Never in doubt  ( what? pardon? you? Ed ! ) What a great country we have and all is well again. Ok, I just thought I’d try those rose-tinted glasses on for a moment, but there’s no doubting the bulls will take comfort from that number. The bears of course will still say that a figure below 50 isn’t exactly anything to get too excited about just yet. Cable has barrier option interest at 1.5600 which is capping the rally for the moment. Back to 1.5578 after 1.5591 business EURGBP also going to have a say on the pound’s fortunes today with good demand still expected in the dips. 0.8467 again now after 0.8460 lows.

UK manufacturing PMI april :49.8 vs 48.5 exp Posted: 01 May 2013 01:28 AM PDT 48.6 prev revised up from 48.3 Cable up at 1.5578   30 month highs Given the move up just prior I just wonder if someone got a quiet nod… new orders PMI rose to 50.6 in april vs 49.3 in march.. first increase since Jan Markit says factory orders should now at least be less of a drag on Q2 growth

Coming up at the bottom of the hour: UK april manufacturing PMI Posted: 01 May 2013 01:24 AM PDT 48.5 exp vs 48.3 prev Data highlight of the morning ! Let’s hope it’s  a wild one

GBP/USD still hanging from the line Posted: 01 May 2013 01:15 AM PDT Like a squirrel on a washing line cable is still being kept in check by the upper channel line which today comes in at 1.5550.   Also adding to the topside weigh down is the 100 DMA at 1.5562 which helped cap the rally yesterday. It’s the first time this indicator has come into play since January. Above there we have the 50 fib level at 1.5604 so all in all there’s quite a bit of tech resistance for the bulls to take out. Below there’s minor support down at 1.5522 with stronger down at 1.5475. UK mfg PMI could provide the action this morning. The last three months have come in below expectations with two below the magic 50 number. I can’t see us posting a much higher than expected number and if we do then we’ll see a good pop in cable.

BOE’s Tucker upbeat on UK economy Posted: 01 May 2013 12:46 AM PDT says there’s reason for hope and that the headline data doesn’t tell the whole story Also says the FLS scheme not meant to be an instant success. Will take 6 months + to see the effect. Keep hoping boys, cos  that’ll get us places. Not.

FTSE up 0.2% on the opening Posted: 01 May 2013 12:21 AM PDT

EURGBP demand capping cable Posted: 01 May 2013 12:16 AM PDT GBPUSD is starting to look a little tired after its big climb up the hill yesterday. Early trading saw attempts back at 1.5550 but failed, and now it’s back down at 1.5532. Buying interest seen at 1.5520-25 with stop loss selling expected below that to run down to 1.5500 EURGBP still looks wanted at 0.8475 and is adding to the pressure on cable. There is an option expiry again today at that level and there is talk of more demand in the fixings, but sellers seen on rallies between 0.8485-0.8500. Strong buying interest at 0.8440 now.

Trading Ideas Posted: 30 Apr 2013 11:53 PM PDT This might be wishful thinking this morning but hey, you never know! The thin liquidity may eventually light a flame somewhere. On the data front it’s most likely to be after the UK manufacturing PMI. But in the meantime, what are you all thinking out there ahead of  US Fed tonight and ECB tomorrow? Post your trading ideas in this thread,with reasons welcome as always

Nikkei 225 closes down -0.44% at 13,799.35 Posted: 30 Apr 2013 11:14 PM PDT 3rd consecutive close lower

UK Nationwide house price index april:m/m -0.1% vs +0.3% exp Posted: 30 Apr 2013 11:01 PM PDT 0.0% prev y/y +0.9% vs +1.2% exp +0.8% prev Weaker than expected but this data is rarely a game changer GBPUSD still slightly firmer on the session at 1.5547

UK’s Osborne to exert more influence over the Old Lady Posted: 30 Apr 2013 11:00 PM PDT UK Chancellor George Osborne yesterday unveiled his instructions to the BOE on financial policy in a widely anticipated move. He tells them to focus on short-term growth, unsurprisingly given the immediate pressures on him and election countdown already starting, but the days of an independent Old Lady have gone under this government, and helping her across the road is unlikely to have the desired effect. The Telegraph carries this take on the story

An ECB rate cut is unlikely to help the unemployed Posted: 30 Apr 2013 10:47 PM PDT With the Eurozone yesterday posting record levels of unemployed surely it is too much to hope that a rate cut will put people back in work anytime soon. Here’s a piece in this morning’s London commuter paper. What say you?

Data coming up today Posted: 30 Apr 2013 09:58 PM PDT Good day everyone, With most of Europe out on holiday there’s little in the way of data coming up, but that’s not to say the lack of liquidity may not still have an impact. Highlight this morning will be the UK manufacturing PMI at 08.28 gmt and this afternoon brings us ADP emploment change and the ISM manufacturing index.Then of course tonight we get the latest interest rate/policy decision from the US Fed at 18.00 GMT. Times BST (GMT +1)

Option expiries 10am NY cut Posted: 30 Apr 2013 09:24 PM PDT USDJPY 96.30,97.00,98.00,98.20,98.50,99.00,99.50,100 EURUSD 1.2950,1.2955,1.3100,1.3150 AUDUSD 1.0300,1.0325,1.0350,1.0410 EURGBP 0.8425,0.8475

ForexLive Asia Wrap: Chinese Manufacturing PMI below expectations Posted: 30 Apr 2013 08:55 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today China Manufacturing PMI for April 50.6 (vs. 50.7 expected) Japan: Labor Cash Earnings -0.6% y/y (vs. -1.2% expected) Japan bought 500m euros of ESM (European Stability Mechanism) bonds in April Japan bought 1.05bn euros of EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) bonds Australian Industry Group Performance Of Manufacturing Index for April 36.7 (vs. 44.4 prior) Australia HIA New Home Sales for March +4.2% m/m (vs. -5.3% prior) Australia: RPData April House Prices -0.5% (vs. +1.3% prior) Australian Treasurer Swan: Australia will remain in deficit longer than forecast Greece's securities regulator has extended a short-selling ban on bank shares to the end of July South Korean Trade Balance $2.6bn (vs. 3.80bn expected) South Korean Exports for April +0.4% y/y (vs. +2.4% expected) South Korean CPI -0.1% m/m (vs. 0.2% expected and -0.2% prior) With China, Singapore and Hong Kong all out for the Labour Day holiday, and Japan's markets open but with their collective mind on the Golden Week holiday it ended up being a very quiet session for the currencies. Most market focus was on the Chinese manufacturing PMI (see above and link for more), but when it came in almost on expectations there was little impact. USD/JPY recorded some activity, re-testing its New York session lows just above 97.00. Talk of option-related buyers stopped the slide, and it bounced to 97.35/40. AUD/USD, too, saw some activity, with a very weak Australian manufacturing PMI (see above and link for more) igniting chatter in the market for a near term rate cut. There will be more discussion of this in the market in coming days as we approach the May 7 RBA policy board meeting. The AUD range, though, was slight, 1.0356/61 to 1.0379/84 is a generous description.

Bloomberg article: BOJ Veterans to ECB Pick Demographic Holes in Abe Posted: 30 Apr 2013 08:41 PM PDT An article from Bloomberg says: All five ex-Bank of Japan officials in a Bloomberg News survey said any gains in government bond yields will be contained over the next two years, with four of them seeing little chance that the BOJ will achieve its 2 percent inflation target. They cite an aging population, that demographics are a "big, big, big problem" One avenue for potentially improving Japan’s prospects for exiting deflation is to increase female participation in the workforce. Abe has recognized this (I posted this on the weekend: Japanese PM Abe: 'Women are Japan's most underused resource'). BOJ Veterans to ECB Pick Demographic Holes in Abe: Japan Credit

RBA’s Edey: Australian banking system and crisis management is more resilient than most Posted: 30 Apr 2013 08:28 PM PDT Malcolm Edey, the RBA’s Assistant Governor (Financial System), is delivering a speech, The Financial Stability Role of Central Banks to the Thomson Reuters’ Australian Regulatory Summit, Sydney.

USA: “Oil in the North Dakota Bakken Formation is more than double the previous estimates” Posted: 30 Apr 2013 08:17 PM PDT The energy revolution in the US continues to gain: A new government study released today estimates that the amount of recoverable oil in the Bakken Formation in North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana (see map above) – at 7.4 billion barrels – is more than twice the previous estimate of 3.65 billion barrels from a 2008 study. Carpe Diem

Australian Treasurer Swan: Australia Will Remain in Deficit Longer Than Forecast Posted: 30 Apr 2013 07:54 PM PDT Australian Treasurer Swan is due to speak today. This from the text of his comments before delivery: "It's clear that the massive write down we've seen in revenue means the budget will remain in deficit for longer than previously forecast," "The high dollar is a big part of the reason why our economy's transition may not be seamless," "There may be bumps along the way, including in the labor market as resources projects enter a less labor intensive phase and the non-mining economy takes time to pick up." Swan is to be speak at an event for the Committee for Economic Development of Australia. AUD/USD is not moving, currently 1.0370/74

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