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The dollar move continues
GBPUSD orders
AUDUSD orders
March UK goods trade balance -9.056bn vs 9.00bn exp
Apologies. Having some technical problems with the site
EURJPY posts 3 year highs
Swissy suffers as USD prevails
EURUSD has interest on both sides
EURUSD orders
AUDUSD bounces from strong support lines
EURUSD seeing ACB demand again
USD YEN orders
USD buyers in early European trading
IMF’s Shinohara says Japanese fiscal policy is risky without discipline
Nikkei 225 closes up 2.93% at 14,607.54
German trade balance march sa: EUR +17.6 bln vs +16.5 bln exp
Always expect the unexpected
Japanese economy watchers poll april: 56.5 vs 57.3 prev
Data coming up in this session
Option expiries 10am NY cut

The dollar move continues

Posted: 10 May 2013 01:54 AM PDT

EUR/USD trades down below 1.3000 to 1.2995

I’ve taken a small long at 1.3001 to see if this holds. Stop at 1.2990.

Well that didn’t take long to blow

EUR/CHF & USD/CHF taking flight also with the euro smashing through 1.2450 and the dollar to 0.9586 highs

USD/JPY staying moderately calm just shy of the next big resistance level at 101.50

GBPUSD orders

Posted: 10 May 2013 01:53 AM PDT

This pair was going nowhere fast ahead of the UK trade data but we’ve seen slippage since. Good buying interest just below here (1.5415).

Sellers 1.5460,1.5480,1.5500,1.5550,1.5590,1.5600, 1.5610

Buyers 1.5410, 1.5400,1.5380,1.5350,1.5330,1.5300

AUDUSD orders

Posted: 10 May 2013 01:44 AM PDT

Apologies for the technical hitch. just beyond our control I’m afraid

As I said earlier, always expect the unexpected .

Right where was I? oh yes. this AUDUSD orders post…

We’ve seen the strong buying interest at 1.0050 smashed and now we have have second wave lower with lows posted of 1.0031. Barrier option interest at 1.0025 remains. currently 1.0048

Sellers 1.0075,1.0090,1.0100,1.0120,1.0150,1.0190,1.0200,1.0250

Buyers 1.0025,1.0020,1.0000,0.9980,0.9950

March UK goods trade balance -9.056bn vs 9.00bn exp

Posted: 10 May 2013 01:43 AM PDT

Prior -9.420bn in Feb which has been revised to -9.165bn
Non-EU trade -3.470bn vs -4.100bn. Prior -4.28bn revised to -4.208bn

Once again, apologies for the downtime

Apologies. Having some technical problems with the site

Posted: 10 May 2013 01:35 AM PDT

Hopefully will be up and running asap

EURJPY posts 3 year highs

Posted: 10 May 2013 12:43 AM PDT

The beat goes on

We’ve now seen 3 year highs of 131.95 as USDJPY surges again to 101.38 before running into sellers ahead of the previously mentioned barrier option interest at 101.50

EURUSD found support from the EURJPY move higher and has based at 1.3005. currently 1.3020

Swissy suffers as USD prevails

Posted: 10 May 2013 12:33 AM PDT

We’re seeing major moves in USDCHF and EURCHF but it would explain why the BIS are on the offer on EURUSD as they’re often seen acting for the SNB.

With EURCHF ramping up to 1.2439 and USDCHF to 0.9561 it’s likely the SNB would be unloading a few euros

There continues to be much speculation that they will be introducing additonal measures to weaken the franc at their June 20 meeting and this latest round of USD bull sentiment is adding to the momentum

USDCHF currently 0.9550 . EURCHF 1.2426

EURUSD has interest on both sides

Posted: 10 May 2013 12:09 AM PDT

I hear that the BIS was seen selling toward 1.3050 on that last rally, probably unrelated to the reported option related sell interest

Let’s see if the ACBs take advantage of another dip.

Always takes two to make a market!

EURUSD orders

Posted: 10 May 2013 12:03 AM PDT

Sellers 1.3050 ( option related),1.3080,1.3100, 1.3120, 1.31501.3180,1.3200

Buyers 1.3020,1.3010,1.3000,1.2980,1.2950,1.2925,1.2900

AUDUSD bounces from strong support lines

Posted: 09 May 2013 11:47 PM PDT

The strong 1.0050 buying interest that we have posted about this week is holding the early decline in this pair.

Currently back to 1.0066

EURUSD seeing ACB demand again

Posted: 09 May 2013 11:44 PM PDT

I’m hearing that Asian Central Banks are still buying the dips on this pair for USD diversification

Currently back to 1.3040 from 1.3021 lows

USD YEN orders

Posted: 09 May 2013 11:33 PM PDT

Sellers 101.20,101.40,101.50 (barrier option related),101.90,102.00 ( barrier option related)

Buyers 100.90,100.80,100.50,100.35,100.00

USD buyers in early European trading

Posted: 09 May 2013 11:20 PM PDT

The greenback buyers are still out in force as European trading gets underway

USDJPY 101.05

EURUSD 1.3023

GBPUSD 1.5427

AUDUSD 1.0051

IMF’s Shinohara says Japanese fiscal policy is risky without discipline

Posted: 09 May 2013 11:12 PM PDT

The IMF’S dep managing director out on reuters a few moments ago
says lack of credible fiscal discipline could spark concern that the BOJ is financing govt deficit spending
current level of yen is appropriate given the monetary policy that the BOJ is persuing

Little of substance. USDJPY 101.04

Nikkei 225 closes up 2.93% at 14,607.54

Posted: 09 May 2013 11:04 PM PDT

+416.06

Down from its session highs but the beat goes on

German trade balance march sa: EUR +17.6 bln vs +16.5 bln exp

Posted: 09 May 2013 11:00 PM PDT

EUR+17.7 bln prev revised up from +17.1 bln
sa exports m/m +0.5 % vs +0.5% exp -1.2% prev
sa imports m/m +0.8 % vs + 1.5% exp -3.9% prev

Better than expected and the rise in imports supports recent stronger economic data for Germany but EURUSD unimpressed at 1.3037 still

Always expect the unexpected

Posted: 09 May 2013 10:49 PM PDT

At last, the USDJPY 100.00 elephant has finally left the room!

Many years in this business have taught me never to be complacent and always expect the unexpected, and so it proved yesterday after I signed off.

Following the unexpected strength of the US jobs data traders were undoubtedly caught on the back foot and were unprepared for the breach of recent ranges across the board, but does that explain the eventual surge through 100 for USDJPY? Did it really only take 4.2 yards ( bln) of dollars to take out all the supposed and highly/frequently reported sell orders from 99.50-100 as has been reported here and elsewhere? Or had those sell orders just dissipated over time and so provided less resistance?

I must confess I didn’t see it coming but then again I didn’t see the marked improvement in the US weekly jobless data either, given recent releases. But I guess I wasn’t alone given the price action. Ok, so my sell cable rally mantra proved to be effective again but I wasn’t looking for such a big move in the short term and had already taken some profit before the second wave of selling below 1.5500. Perhaps my belief that the US economy would get itself out of trouble ahead of the pack had been justifiably diminished given recent releases. Again, I wouldn’t have been alone on that one and, indeed, the jury is still out, given the conflicting data yesterday even.

But it’s currently all about the yen and whether there is now the momentum for it to weaken dramatically further. Markets caught on the wrong foot invariably rest a while after the chaos and mayhem and I can see that being the case now. Sure, we’ll get some volatility but I don’t think the next real move will be decided in the next few days and there will undoubtedly be many yen bears breathing a big sigh of relief right now. The G7 are unlikely to break the party line given by the more powerful G20 so we should hear little of substance from them today and tomorrow.

There are real dangers to further yen weakening, not least of which domestically with the rising costs of Japan now being a large importer of energy fuels and the fear that the investment outflows will leave Japanese banks short of funds and the country on the brink of bankrputcy.

But, hey, that’s a while off yet if indeed ever and the fx market will keep it’s snout firmly entrenched in the feeding trough of short term gains.

That much, at least, we can expect to remain true as ever.