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Eurozone Q1 GDP -0.2% vs -0.1% exp
Is there likely to be a shock from the EZ GDP report at 09.00 gmt?
GBPUSD orders
Apr UK claimant count -7.3k vs -3k exp
USDJPY orders
EURUSD orders
Italy Q1 GDP -0.5% vs -0.3% exp m/m
Here we go again
April Swiss PPI 0.2%vs 0.0% prior m/m
EUR/USD breaks 1.2900
BOJ to pump Y2.8 trillion in operation to calm bond market
April French final CPI -0.1% vs 0.0% exp /m/
USD/JPY pops to 102.37
Trading ideas 15 May
France and Germany set the scene for the eurozone GDP release at 9.00 gmt
German Q1 GDP 0.1% vs 0.3% exp
Big levels await down below in EUR/USD
BOJ Kuroda not commenting on FX market
French preliminary Q1 GDP -0.2% vs -0.1% exp
Nikkei index highest since 2008

Eurozone Q1 GDP -0.2% vs -0.1% exp

Posted: 15 May 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Prior -0.6%
Y/Y -1.0% vs -0.9% exp. Prior -0.9%

Well, no shocks there then.

Move along nothing to see here.

Is there likely to be a shock from the EZ GDP report at 09.00 gmt?

Posted: 15 May 2013 01:53 AM PDT

There shouldn’t be given the data already out today but the market may get a jolt up if the figure posts at 0.0% or even +0.1%.

That would show that the eurozone may pull out of recession. Again I would expect any knock on rally to be sold into.

The data has historically been pretty much spot on vs expectations. If we do get another drop then the euro could get hit again but I would expect the tech levels at 1.2882 and 1.2860 to hold.

GBPUSD orders

Posted: 15 May 2013 01:37 AM PDT

After that jobs/earnings data here’s what’s out there still

Sellers 1.5250,1.5280,1.5300,1.5330,1.5350,1.5400,1.5410

Buyers 1.5210, 1.5185,1.5175,1.5150,1.5125,1.5100

Apr UK claimant count -7.3k vs -3k exp

Posted: 15 May 2013 01:30 AM PDT

March unemployment rate 7.8% vs 7.9%
March claim count revised to -9.9k from -7.0k
Avg wkly earnings 0.4% vs 0.7% exp. Prior 0.8% revised to 1.0%
Avg earnings ex bonus 0.8% vs 0.8% exp. Prior 1.0%.

Decent figures and a drop in the unemployment rate. Average earnings down slightly which will take some inflationary pressure off.

Expect Mervyn King to point to this report and the falling price of oil and commodities as key drivers of lower inflation targets.

Cable taking a pop to 1.5250 and as expected, is well sold into.

USDJPY orders

Posted: 15 May 2013 01:24 AM PDT

After this morning’s rally there is little doubt we will continue to see good two-way price action on this pair. And don’t forget that if we were to head up through 103.00 there is the small matter of the top side of the 97-104 DNT option to consider. The bamboo eater did a great job of defending the base.

Sellers 102.60, 102.80, 102.90,103.00 ,103.30,103.50, 104.00

Buyers 102,20,102.00,101.85,101.65,101.30,101.20,101.00

EURUSD orders

Posted: 15 May 2013 01:06 AM PDT

Good day everyone,

I’m on the split- shift for the rest of week as, believe it or not, I have 5 performances of Aida to sing in this week ! Normally a rock and blues man I’ve dabbled in opera for the past couple of years,which has been interesting to say the least.

My thanks to Ryan for taking the graveyard shift, and after a lively start here’s what’s out there at the moment on this pair

Sellers 1.2925, 1.2940,1.2950,1.2975,1.3000,1.3030,1.3050

Buyers 1.2880,1.2865,1.2850,1.2830,1.2800

Italy Q1 GDP -0.5% vs -0.3% exp m/m

Posted: 15 May 2013 01:00 AM PDT

Prior -0.9%
Y/Y -2.3% vs -2.2%. Prior -2.8%

Nope, definitely no rabbits in that hat.

Here we go again

Posted: 15 May 2013 12:23 AM PDT

Looks like us lot on this side of the pond are taking the USD baton and running wild with it.

USD/CHF up through 0.9710

EUR/CHF into 1.2522

AUD/USD down through 0.9850 to ~~0.9848~~ On further investigation it seems 0.9852 was the low. Apologies.

GBP and EUR holding back below their respective big figures at 1.52 and 1.29

USD/JPY tops out at 102.61

April Swiss PPI 0.2%vs 0.0% prior m/m

Posted: 15 May 2013 12:16 AM PDT

Y/Y -0.1% vs -0.3% prior

EUR/USD breaks 1.2900

Posted: 15 May 2013 12:09 AM PDT

Small stops hit through to 1.2891 but no real follow through.

1.2982 the closest level and the 55 wma then the trend line at 1.2860

Same story in GBP/USD falling through stops at 1.5200 to 1.5192

European stocks are opening lower

FTSE -0.1%
Dax -0.1%
Cac -0.4%
Ibex -0.2%
FTSE MIB -0.2%

BOJ to pump Y2.8 trillion in operation to calm bond market

Posted: 14 May 2013 11:56 PM PDT

Headline hitting the wires from the Kyodo news agency.

There were also some upbeat company earnings that I mentioned in the last post, from Mizuho.

~~102.50 option barrier in play up above.~~

Kuroda also still on the wires saying that rising stock prices aren’t a bubble at the moment.

Right-o

Barrier busted 102.56 the high so far.

April French final CPI -0.1% vs 0.0% exp /m/

Posted: 14 May 2013 11:45 PM PDT

Prior 0.8%
Y/Y 0.8% vs 0.9% exp. Prior 1.1%
Ex-tabacco -0.2% vs 0.8% prior

Further inflation falls in a European country will add to the further rate cut calls.

USD/JPY pops to 102.37

Posted: 14 May 2013 11:45 PM PDT

Only thing I can see out in the news is some upbeat Japanese company earnings reports. Ill look closer after the figures.

Trading ideas 15 May

Posted: 14 May 2013 11:25 PM PDT

Roll up, roll up, get your trading ideas here.

What are your trading thoughts for the day ahead?

Let us know how previous trades are going.

Chuck them in here for the rest of us to pass judgement on

France and Germany set the scene for the eurozone GDP release at 9.00 gmt

Posted: 14 May 2013 11:18 PM PDT

Not good so far is it? I can’t see the Italians pulling a rabbit out the hat.

The market has taken the bad data on the chin and is down testing the 1.2900 level.

EUR/GBP could take a further knock if the UK unemployment figures come out on the good side. This will knock the pair firmly back into the 0.8400/8500 range.

Look for the 0.8430 level as the big support level with 0.8463 a smaller one on the way down.

German Q1 GDP 0.1% vs 0.3% exp

Posted: 14 May 2013 11:00 PM PDT

Prior -0.6% Revised down to -0.7%
Y/Y -1.4% from 0.1% prior ( Revised down to 0.0%)

EUR/USD taking a dive on the GDP drop. down to 1.2910 from 1.2930

German stats office says Q1 growth weak partly due to bad weather while the growth was driven nearly exclusively by private consumption

Big levels await down below in EUR/USD

Posted: 14 May 2013 10:58 PM PDT

As the tech resistance mounts on the upside there are a couple of big levels to watch for on the downside.

First up we have the 55 wma at 1.2882 and then a long term trend line from July 2012 at 1.2860.

To the upside the the 55 & 200 dma’s are looking to converge around the 1.2990 area which will make any upward moves a hard task. Further up we have the 200 H4ma at 1.3028.

I mentioned in the comments that the GDP data today could present the opportunity to get shorts on at some decent levels rather than to take longs on the back of any upside releases.

BOJ Kuroda not commenting on FX market

Posted: 14 May 2013 10:42 PM PDT

Weak yen can push up prices to some extent due to increase in import prices
Not trying to achieve temporay increase in prices due to import prices
Not commenting on currency levels or movement
Trying to achieve inflation with positive economic cycle
Narrowing in output gap and rising inflation expectations to contribute to achieving inflation

Kuroda is speaking before a Japanese parliament commitee

No real bombs being dropped by the big man and USD/JPY standing steady at 102.20