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- EUR/USD putting in a case for a short term bottom
- EURJPY orders
- GBPUSD orders
- USD/JPY Chatter
- AUDUSD orders
- USDJPY orders
- EURUSD orders
- European stock open 17 May: A lazy start to the day
- Will options hold the key to cracking 103 in USD/JPY
- Trading ideas for the European session 17 may
- Again with the early dollar buying
- Europe keeps on motoring
- French finance minister believes economic growth could return in the second half of 2013
- Cheap US coal heads to Europe and Asia
- Japan doesn’t just seek news highs in the currency
- EUR/AUD pushing 1.3200
- Options for the 10 am NY cut 17 May
- 0.9750 gone in AUD/USD
- ForexLive Asia Wrap: Heavy selling of Australian and New Zealand dollar
- If you were planning a restful weekend, wait up just a moment … Bernanke to speak on Saturday
| EUR/USD putting in a case for a short term bottom Posted: 17 May 2013 02:06 AM PDT Thanks to Guitar7 for reminding me. For the last two days I’ve been banging on about the Jul 2012/Mar 2013 trend line and the 55 wma. We’re still down here but have bounced for 2 days from the 1.2840/50 area and are holding today as well.
With Abe speaking at 9.30 gmt we could get some further USD action, though it’s likely to be yen based rather than dollar based. So we could have a half decent short term triple bottom in place as well as maintaining the trend line. The longs may benefit from a bout of profit taking as the day unfolds. Topside we have the 55 and 200 dma meeting at around the 1.2995 mark so I would expect any big upside moves to be held here. Before there we have mild resistance at 1.2925 and then orders and options at 1.2930/50 as mentioned by Mike. Downside we have mild support at 1.2841, 1.2801 then stronger at 1.2779 before the April low of 1.2744. I’m tempted to see out the Abe tapebombs and then jump in. If we’re still at these levels I’m going to go long around 1.2850/70 with a stop at 1.2835. I may push my entry up to 1.2880 at the very most but would bring my stop up with it . |
| Posted: 17 May 2013 01:52 AM PDT This pair remains entrenched but if 103 breaks then we can expect a move higher, but beware the good sell interest between 132.50-133. A move higher would also be tempered by the likely accompanying fall of EURUSD through 1.2840 and below. similarly the reverse is true if USDJPY fails again and heads south. currently 131.96 Sellers 132.20,132.40,132.50,132.70,132.80,133.00,133.50 Buyers 131.60,131.40,131.20,131.00,130.80,130.50
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| Posted: 17 May 2013 01:35 AM PDT Cable failed to hold its gains yesterday along with all the other pairs but appears to have some decent support in the dip. My sell-rally strategy remains undimmed but there’s money for bulls and bears still. currently 1.5235. Sellers 1.5260, 1.5280,1.5300,1.5325,1.5350,1.5380,1.5400 Buyers 1.5210, 1.5200,1.5190,1.5175, 1.5150,1.5125
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| Posted: 17 May 2013 01:32 AM PDT The jungle drums are striking up. Rumours doing the rounds that Abe is going to be up and speaking at 9.30 gmt and will be suggesting a corporate tax cut as part of the Abenomics 2.0 or second phase of the growth plan. |
| Posted: 17 May 2013 01:16 AM PDT All hail the Littlestone ! A great call yesterday to go short in the rally at 0.9850. It was touch and go while USDJPY toyed sub-102 but how sweet to wake up to 100 pips. Nice one mate and I hope many of you got on board the move too. Currently 0.9744 from 0.9727 lows just ahead of good demand. Sellers 0.9765,0.9785,0.9800,0.9830,0.9850,0.9880,0.9900 Buyers 0.9720,0.9700*,0.9670,0.9650*,0.9600* * barrier option related
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| Posted: 17 May 2013 12:59 AM PDT Yesterday when i signed off I pointed to the demand around 102.00 despite the weak US data and that this pair held the key to any further potential USD sales.Well it didn’t go down and nor did the greenback overall.Still the huge raft of sell interest up to 103.10 with stops below 101.80 now firmly mapping out our range. And don’t forget the Panda’s DNT 97-104 option. Currently 102.50 Sellers 102.60,102.80,102.90,103.00,103.10,103.30, 103.50, 103.80,104.00 Buyers 102.20,102.10,102.00,101.80 ( stop loss selling if breached ), 101.50
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| Posted: 17 May 2013 12:41 AM PDT Good day everyone, I’m hearing middle east names are buying this pair down here. Currently 1.2862 from 1.2851 lows. Talk of large bamboo eating Asian on the bid between 1.2840-50 Sellers 1.2885,1.2900,1.2930,1.2950,1.2980,1.3000 Buyers 1.2850,1.2840, ( stop loss selling if breached ), 1.2825,1.2800,1.2775
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| European stock open 17 May: A lazy start to the day Posted: 17 May 2013 12:16 AM PDT
Around the bonds (10′s)
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| Will options hold the key to cracking 103 in USD/JPY Posted: 16 May 2013 11:54 PM PDT The 103 options and barrier at 103 is being mooted as the main reason for holding below. I haven ‘t got the info but we can assume the are of a reasonable size. Both of them are going off today at 14.00 gmt and the market chatter is that this will open the gates for a push higher. There are 103 option expiries through the early part of next week but particular attention is being paid to the barrier today. Usual rules apply, as in don’t hang your hat on the option trades, but bear them in mind when monitoring the price action both now and towards the expiry. If I get my shorts on I’m going to keep my stop very tight now based on this news alone. |
| Trading ideas for the European session 17 may Posted: 16 May 2013 11:39 PM PDT Stick em in here, the good and the bad. How are you playing today? Has it been a good week or a bad one? Will you be looking to close up your book for the weekend and if not how do you mange your positions for holding over the weekend. I’m going to take my own advice that I gave Kash in the comments and play the intraday range in USD/JPY. Going to look to short the pair around 102.70 if we get there.
It’s a bit slow today so here’s something to liven you up. |
| Again with the early dollar buying Posted: 16 May 2013 11:29 PM PDT Is it me or have we had a spurt of USD buying around the same time for the last 3 days? USD/JPY is up through 102.50 with GBP & EUR/JPY following suit. GBP/USD and EUR/USD, which haven’t looked overly enthusiastic this morning have both slipped. Sterling is holding overnight lows of 1.5235/40 indicating moderate support while the euro has dipped to 1.2850. USD/CHF is up to 0.9680 and I hope a lot of you cheeky chappies rode the trade up from Adam’s USD/CHF post yesterday |
| Posted: 16 May 2013 11:09 PM PDT April cars sales are up 1.8% for the first gain in over a year and a half. Sales posted 1.08m vs 1.06m prior y/y
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| French finance minister believes economic growth could return in the second half of 2013 Posted: 16 May 2013 11:00 PM PDT And aliens could land on earth. I love it when politicians speculate rather than give a reasoned, purposeful address. I know which scenario I’d put my money on |
| Cheap US coal heads to Europe and Asia Posted: 16 May 2013 10:41 PM PDT An interesting read from Oilprice.com The shale boom in the US has shifted the dynamics of electricity generation to natural gas from coal. As such the US now exports nearly 90% of the coal it mined for electricity with Europe, China and Japan the main buyers. This has brought global prices down which is good news for high energy importing countries such as the UK. It further highlights the fact that the US is on track to become a net exporter of energy in the not too distant future. I’ve long said that the high prices of energy importing has been one of sticking points to a recovery in the UK and Europe. It accounts for a large part of inflation and also in keeping production prices high while depressing margins. If energy prices start coming down significantly then we will that trend reverse and our economies will benefit from it. As for the US, well, becoming exporters of energy should lower global prices by adding more supply but it will also mean a bonanza to the country’s finances at a time it’s really needed. It’s just another piece of the puzzle that we need to keep an eye on. The full story from Oilprice.com can be read here. |
| Japan doesn’t just seek news highs in the currency Posted: 16 May 2013 10:10 PM PDT The O.A.P’s want to hit new highs as well. 80 year old Yuichi Miura wants to take back his crown of oldest person to reach the top of Mt Everest. He lost his record to Nepalese climber Min Bahadur Sherchan who was 76 when he completed the climb in 2008. Previous to that Miura was 70 when he set the record.
Full story from the Japan times here. |
| Posted: 16 May 2013 09:53 PM PDT We’be broken the 2013 high at 1.3187 to and are at the highest since December 2011 which was 1.3230 odd. If we get through that then once again the sky’s the limit as the next major resistance point is the 1.3800 level.
Looking at the weekly chart going back to the start of the falls in 2008, we’ve not even made a dent in retracing back. This has been another safe haven/yield pair and if the unwinding continues then we could have some major major moves on our hands. Coming in a bit closer we have the 61.8 fib from the Aug 2011/Jun 2012 hi/lo at 1.3242
Below the first line of minor support is now the previous high at 1.3192 with stronger in the 1.3075/85 region, followed by 1.3035. As with AUD/USD we’re into another “how far can we go” scenario. |
| Options for the 10 am NY cut 17 May Posted: 16 May 2013 09:27 PM PDT Thanks once again to Eamonn for keeping the fires burning overnight. Here’s the levels for today USD/JPY
EUR/USD
No sizes of note just yet EUR/GBP 0.8400 GBP/USD 1.5200 USD/CAD 1.0230, 1.0300 USD/CHF 0.9675
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| Posted: 16 May 2013 09:12 PM PDT Good morning Europe If there were any options barriers or otherwise, they are toastado! 0.9750 goes and we hit a low of 0.9740. Yesterdays break of trend line and 200 wma held on a initial bounce back from 0.9797 and we’ve broken down over night.
The sustained break of those levels now open the door to further losses towards 0.9600 and further. I managed to get my short in at 0.9850 so it’s nice to wake up in profit, and I’m going to let this sucker ride. I reported yesterday that ACB’s were selling all the way down through 0.98 and flows from Hong Kong have done the latest damage. Sovereigns and CB’s are the buyers cited overnight but only small and not enough to halt this slide. |
| ForexLive Asia Wrap: Heavy selling of Australian and New Zealand dollar Posted: 16 May 2013 09:00 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today, Friday May 17
AUD and NZD were sold heavily from multiple sources today, US, Japanese and Hong Kong names all cited (even though it was a Hong Kong holiday). There was no fresh news to drive it, just more of the trend continuation as it seems the short AUD trade is elbowing aside the short yen trade as a favourite for macro funds as the talk of Fed tapering just wont go away. Glenn Stevens will be delirious with joy at these moves. EUR and GBP traded lower with the AUD and NZD, though not with the same intensity, both off around 30 points. USD/JPY had a quiet session again. The machinery order data release was hailed as another step on the road to Japanese economic recovery, but yen remained nearly unmoved. USD/JPY had a dip down to 102.05/10, and bounced to 102.30. That was the story of the day. There was talk of big AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY cross selling, which, if true, shows just how strong the USD/JPY bids are. but everytime AUD moves someone says its AUD/JPY related, so I don't know. |
| If you were planning a restful weekend, wait up just a moment … Bernanke to speak on Saturday Posted: 16 May 2013 08:53 PM PDT Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke is speaking on Saturday, at 1500GMT. He is giving a commencement address at a US college. The speech topic is “Economic Prospects for the Long Run” |
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