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• The jugglers are out in USD/JPY
• Breakdown of GDP revisions
• UK Q1 GDP 2nd reading: q/q +0.3 % vs +0.3% prev
• USD/JPY has the rug pulled out from under it
• UK GDP revision
• Eagle eyes Amari closely watching markets
• Coming up at the bottom of the hour: UK Q1 GDP 2nd reading
• Italian retail sales march sa: m/m -0.3% vs -0.2% prev
• Eurozone services PMI flash may: 47.5 vs 47.2 exp
• Eurozone manufacturing PMI flash may: 47.8 vs 47 exp
• USDJPY orders
• Germany’s DIHK cuts growth forecast for 2013
• ECB’s Noyer: we are currently considering addtional measures to reduce fragmentation in EU
• German services PMI flash may: 49.8 vs 50.00 exp
• German manufacturing PMI flash may: 49 vs 48.5 exp
• Euro higher after French manufacturing PMI data
• European equity markets open lower
• French services PMI flash may: 44.3 vs 44.5 exp
• French manufacturing PMI flash may: 45.5 vs 44.8 exp
• Blink and you miss it. USDJPY now testing 102.00 again

The jugglers are out in USD/JPY Posted: 23 May 2013 02:02 AM PDT All the knife catchers are warming up I see. 101 gave away pretty easily as it did on the way u. Low so far 100.83. I’ve half given up on trying to draw fibs in this pair but I’ve taken one from the April break up (purple) and the first level comes in at 99.54 so quite a way to go for that. I’ve got a feeling short term tech is going to take a back seat as these moves are very violent. That said the market will stop somewhere so it’s best to be aware of some levels. The 100 H4 ma is at 100.67 followed by support at 100.53. After that it’s the big 100 back in the frame. Like on the way up it’s likely to attract a lot of attention and so reversing the strategy of the break up may be the play. Taking a long against the level with a stop reverse on a break down. While these moves are violent they are only likely to shake out short term players. Even the massive 7% fall is a drop in the ocean compared to the gains the Nikkei (and other markets) have put on.  Don’t get sucked in on one move. See how it plays out before trying to jump in or trade the other way.

Breakdown of GDP revisions Posted: 23 May 2013 01:39 AM PDT Nothing too much to write home about but there were some minor revisions within the GDP Construction output rose 0.1% to -2.4% from -2.5% Mining and oil was up to 4.0% from 3.2% but was canelled out by water supply and sewage revised down to -1.0% Household spending rose 0.1% The ONS said that main contributions to QQ GDP growth was from rises in inventories and household spending

UK Q1 GDP 2nd reading: q/q +0.3 % vs +0.3% prev Posted: 23 May 2013 01:30 AM PDT y/y +  +0.6% vs +0.6% prev Will be of some some comfort to GBP bulls given recent weak economic data. GBPUSD up to 1.5072 Add: Household spending q/q +0.1%  y/y +1.3% weakest since Q3 2011 Devil in the detail as always.

USD/JPY has the rug pulled out from under it Posted: 23 May 2013 01:27 AM PDT Breaking down further now and heading to 101. Currently at 101.10 and through stops at 101.20 Last nights fall in Japan has stocks a little scared across the board with Europe all off over 2% and US stock futures showing declines on over 1% in all except the Dow. The corrections are always as fast as the rises.

UK GDP revision Posted: 23 May 2013 01:23 AM PDT Good morning everyone Bit of carnage on the screens this morning. Was a shock to wake up and see the Nikkei off 7%. It was only last night I was chatting to Adam about whether these high levels in stock markets can be maintained. I know this fall was because of an “event” but stocks are going high very quickly and that’s a very dangerous scenario. Anyway, up at 08.30 gmt is the UK Q1 GDP revision read. If the figure is revised down then talk of a UK recovery will take a dent somewhat. As usual we’ll see the devil in the details. Famous last words but, there shouldn’t be too much market reaction unless the revisions are way out.

Eagle eyes Amari closely watching markets Posted: 23 May 2013 01:18 AM PDT Profit taking in stocks concentrated today’s sharp rises in the market Pace of rise in stocks has been faster than expected Natural for yen to gain in reaction to sharp falls in stocks (or him opening his trap) Economy on way to recovery, no need to be upset about sharp stock fall

Coming up at the bottom of the hour: UK Q1 GDP 2nd reading Posted: 23 May 2013 01:15 AM PDT Lest we forget we have the not so small risk event at 08.30 gmt with the 2nd reading of the Q1 GDP First reading was +0.3% q/q and +0.6% y/y GBPUSD currently off its 1.5015 lows at 1.5060

Italian retail sales march sa: m/m -0.3% vs -0.2% prev Posted: 23 May 2013 01:05 AM PDT y/y nsa -3.0% vs -4.8% prev

Eurozone services PMI flash may: 47.5 vs 47.2 exp Posted: 23 May 2013 12:59 AM PDT 47.00 prev composite 47.7 vs 47.2 exp   46.9 prev Better than expected again but euro little changed  EURUSD not really rallying suggesting the good news absorbed already .. currently 1.2864

Eurozone manufacturing PMI flash may: 47.8 vs 47 exp Posted: 23 May 2013 12:58 AM PDT 46.7 prev

USDJPY orders Posted: 23 May 2013 12:57 AM PDT After the chaos and mayhem here’s what  on the orderboards now.. currently 101.86 having failed to hold gains above 102 on the rebound from 101.44. Yesterday you will recall I highlighted large sell orders all the way up from 103 to 104. I hope it helped although of course it wasn’t the only driver up there. Sellers 102.10,102.40,102.50,102.60,102.75,103.00103.50,103.60 Buyers 101.40, 101.30 ( stop loss selling if breached), 101.00,100.80,100.50,100.00

Germany’s DIHK cuts growth forecast for 2013 Posted: 23 May 2013 12:36 AM PDT down to +0.3% from +0.7% Statement just released by the German Chambers of Commerce expressing fears that exports will not pick up as much as previously hoped Germany’s upturn has been delayed for now. Economic stabilization in Europe is happening more slowly than had been hoped.Firms view their situation more negatively than they did at the start of the year EURUSD lower again at 1.2860

ECB’s Noyer: we are currently considering addtional measures to reduce fragmentation in EU Posted: 23 May 2013 12:32 AM PDT Just out on reuters. no further detail as yet

German services PMI flash may: 49.8 vs 50.00 exp Posted: 23 May 2013 12:28 AM PDT 49.6 prev composite  49.9 vs 48.8 prev Also better than expected overall. EURUSD up to 1.2870

German manufacturing PMI flash may: 49 vs 48.5 exp Posted: 23 May 2013 12:28 AM PDT 48.1 prev

Euro higher after French manufacturing PMI data Posted: 23 May 2013 12:22 AM PDT A combination of the buy orders I highlighted on EURUSD and EURJPY plus the better than expected French mftg PMI has given the euro a decent lift EURUSD now 1.2861 EURJPY 131.14 Next up is German mftg and serv PMI at 07.28 GMT

European equity markets open lower Posted: 23 May 2013 12:08 AM PDT No surprises there ! FTSE -1.7% DAX -1.9% CAC40 -2.2% IBEX -2.3% FTMIB -2.5% A learned friend of mine at an equity trading desk for large player tells me that institutions will be lining up to buy into these dips. We shall see soon enough

French services PMI flash may: 44.3 vs 44.5 exp Posted: 22 May 2013 11:58 PM PDT 44.3 prev composite 44.3  vs 44.3 prev

French manufacturing PMI flash may: 45.5 vs 44.8 exp Posted: 22 May 2013 11:58 PM PDT 44.4 prev

Blink and you miss it. USDJPY now testing 102.00 again Posted: 22 May 2013 11:53 PM PDT It appears that the 101.50 breach may have been a false start with a sharp rally now from 101.60 to 101.93. Now we have to see if 102 holds. Crazy days indeed.

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