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- EU March PPI -0.2% vs -0.2% exp m/m
- GBP/USD still holding firm after UK services PMI
- UK services PMI april: 52.9 vs 52.4 exp
- UK services PMI coming up at the bottom of the hour
- ECB’s Likanen says they are ready and able to act if needed
- European equity markets open a little higher
- Euro rallies as Nowotny tries to play down ECB depo rate comments
- UK local elections: UKIP expected to make large gains
- Data coming up today
- Option expiries 10am NY cut
- ECB’s Nowotny: ECB rate cut a reaction to a very weak economy, low rates to stay for a longer period
- Australia’s turn to enter the currency war?
- ForexLive Asia Wrap: China Services PMI a little weaker
- Japanese financial regulators revising banking guidelines to encourage more lending
- South China Morning Post: Widening the yuan’s trading band won’t solve anything
- Canada housing market … spring slowdown
- Got any Bitcoins left? Buy a condo
- The most interesting thing about Warren Buffet on Twitter
- China services PMI – recap fro Bloomberg
- Australia: Q1 PPI 1.6 % y/y (vs. +1.0% prior)
| EU March PPI -0.2% vs -0.2% exp m/m Posted: 03 May 2013 02:00 AM PDT
A smidge higher on the yearly figure but given the drop last month it’s to be expected. |
| GBP/USD still holding firm after UK services PMI Posted: 03 May 2013 01:46 AM PDT Good morning everyone. Cable is showing no signs of retracing the move that took us up through 1.5500 and looks happy to stay above the level. The topside still beckons but yesterday’s moves have taken us below an intraday trend line. I don’t usually hold much sway with such short term indicators but if markets are quiet you can see patterns developing. Certainly scalpers take advantage of such things.
Still the top channel line is keeping a lid on progress, along with strong sell orders/options at 1.5600 and the 50 fib at 1.5604. I did hear unsubstantiated talk of a large 1.5606 option yesterday (which I’ll try to do some digging on today). We are also failing to get a close above the 100 dma at 1.5552 despite trading above it the last two days. Overall the pair remains well supported with the first line of decent support down at 1.5488. The market is happy with the 1.55-56 range for the moment with dip buying the main entry play. Obviously this afternoon we have the last of the fireworks displays in non-farm payrolls. We certainly have been spoilt this week with the data and action. Hopefully today will continue the theme.
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| UK services PMI april: 52.9 vs 52.4 exp Posted: 03 May 2013 01:28 AM PDT
The pound had come under a little pressure into this with some traders looking for a number as low as 51.5 so we should see some decent consolidation now GBPUSD up at 1.5544 from 1.5520 prior
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| UK services PMI coming up at the bottom of the hour Posted: 03 May 2013 01:16 AM PDT 08.28 GMT in fact to be precise Given the more upbeat construction and manufacturing data this week the market will be disappointed if this sector, the major part of UK GDP , doesn’t also impress. 52.4 exp vs 52.4 prev
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| ECB’s Likanen says they are ready and able to act if needed Posted: 03 May 2013 12:48 AM PDT
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| European equity markets open a little higher Posted: 03 May 2013 12:10 AM PDT
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| Euro rallies as Nowotny tries to play down ECB depo rate comments Posted: 02 May 2013 11:55 PM PDT We’ve seen a decent rally in the Euro in recent trading as ECB member Nowotny is quoted as saying that the markets have overstated the negative depo rate discussion yesterday. He says that the idea of a negative rate is not relevant in the near-term and that many aspects/effects of such a move still need analysis. EURUSD just posted highs of 1.3102 and is currently 1.3100. EURJPY 128.42 EURGBP 0.8431 |
| UK local elections: UKIP expected to make large gains Posted: 02 May 2013 11:40 PM PDT Yesterday in the UK we had local elections for 27 county councils and it’s now clear that the UK Independence Party will make a real dent into the coalition vote as the results become known today. There was also a parliamentary bye-election in which the opposition Labour party held their seat but UKIP came second with 24% of the vote. Quite astonishing but not entirely unsurprising. These results won’t have a huge impact on the pound at this stage, but with the UK promised a referendum on leaving the EU, as well as the general election in 2015, the rapidly growing support for UKIP can not be ignored as I have reported before. Here’s a few articles that give more detail and a flavour of what’s happening out there . A bloody nose for the Coalition |
| Posted: 02 May 2013 10:30 PM PDT Good day everyone Who’s glad it’s Friday?! After the ECB fun n games yesterday we now wait for the NFPs to light another spark. Good luck out there
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| Posted: 02 May 2013 10:20 PM PDT
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| ECB’s Nowotny: ECB rate cut a reaction to a very weak economy, low rates to stay for a longer period Posted: 02 May 2013 09:13 PM PDT Nowotny was speaking on Austrian radio. Incidentally, the accompanying photo is rare archival footage of Nowotny at an ECB karaoke night.
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| Australia’s turn to enter the currency war? Posted: 02 May 2013 09:04 PM PDT A post from the always interesting Sober Look blog: Australia’s turn to enter the currency war? It argues that with the China slowdown weighing on the Australian economy, and US & Japan central banks conducting enormous monetary expansion that is placing upward pressure on the AUD, now is the time for the RBA to to ease monetary policy by lowering short term rates:
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| ForexLive Asia Wrap: China Services PMI a little weaker Posted: 02 May 2013 08:57 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today
AUD/USD and NZD/USD the only movers today. AUD/USD showed little reaction to another weak economic data point (the April services PMI, see bullets, above). The market was a little short and had run into high-yield seekers buying AUD from 1.0125 overnight. There was a great deal of chatter amongst traders of the gaining possibility of a May 7 RBA rate cut. The chatter diminished as AUD/USD trickled a little higher to 1.0280 selling, but I imagine any renewed attempts at the downside will reignite speculation. Interestingly, in a yet-to-be-released survey report (as at the time of writing) a Wall Street Journal survey of 19 economists will find only 2 are expecting a cut on May 7. NZD/USD showed strength, too, trading from around 0.8490 to above 0.8530 EUR, GBP and yen were all extremely quiet, barely registering any movement at all ahead of tonight’s NFP figure from the US. |
| Japanese financial regulators revising banking guidelines to encourage more lending Posted: 02 May 2013 08:35 PM PDT An interesting article from the Wall Street Journal (not gated) says that on April 30 Japanese financial regulators published a revision to the country's banking guidelines urging banks to lend more
Well, I hope this doesn’t end in tears … Oh, no wait, its all good:
Japanese Banks Urged to Lend in Fight Against Deflation |
| South China Morning Post: Widening the yuan’s trading band won’t solve anything Posted: 02 May 2013 08:14 PM PDT
But, argues Tom Holland, columnist at the South China Morning Post:
Widening the yuan’s trading band won’t solve anything |
| Canada housing market … spring slowdown Posted: 02 May 2013 07:58 PM PDT Slowdown in the Canadian housing market? Agents are saying they’re seeing far fewer buyers, a result of
A slowdown in this runaway property market is a positive, I would have thought. More here: Analysis: Canadian housing – bursting bubble or gentle landing? |
| Got any Bitcoins left? Buy a condo Posted: 02 May 2013 07:40 PM PDT A condo in the Trump SoHo Hotel in New York is only about 18,000 bitcoins. Do the prices of these things for sale via bitcoin vary as bitcoins swing around in value? Hmmm, no:
Now You Can Buy a Condo in the Trump Hotel With Bitcoins
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| The most interesting thing about Warren Buffet on Twitter Posted: 02 May 2013 07:06 PM PDT Well, to me anyway, and its early days yet.
Thought he might follow Goldman Sachs or something like that?
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| China services PMI – recap fro Bloomberg Posted: 02 May 2013 06:54 PM PDT April services PMI at 54.5 (from 55.6 in March) Bloomberg have a bit of a recap article, but while one analyst it quotes says the result adds to downside risks for China and the region, and that growth has shifted to a lower trajectory, another analyst is more upbeat, saying construction and logistics point to robust production activity in the future. I would have thought that the marginal difference from March’s reading is not of much significance. More here: China Service Industries Expand at Slower Pace, Survey Shows |
| Australia: Q1 PPI 1.6 % y/y (vs. +1.0% prior) Posted: 02 May 2013 06:34 PM PDT |
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