Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• AUDUSD orders
• March EZ retail sales -0.1% vs -0.1% exp m/m
• USD/JPY looking for another shot at the title
• Eurozone Sentix Index may: -15.6 vs -15.2 exp
• Eurozone services PMI april: 47.00 vs 46.6 exp
• EURUSD orders
• German services PMI april: 49.6 vs 49.2 exp
• French services PMI april: 44.3 vs 44.1 exp
• Italian services PMI april: 47.00 vs 45.8 exp
• USD gains in early trading
• Spanish services PMI april: 44.4 vs 45.3 prev
• Spanish unemployment falls 0.91% in April
• European equity markets open the week with caution
• Data coming up in this session
• Option expiries10am NY cut
• ForexLive Asia Wrap: Australian resource sector capex pipeline starting to dry up
• UK press (front page of The Times): Osborne home plan ‘risks price bubble’
• Australia: Mining tax forecasts halve
• Bloomberg article: Lenders may create Bitcoin rivals, says New Zealand bank group
• Recap of HSBC China April Services PMI

AUDUSD orders Posted: 06 May 2013 02:02 AM PDT This pair continues its downward path on weak data raising the odds of a rate cut by RBA. currently 1.0256 after 1.0247 lows. Strong bids at 1.0200-20 still Sellers  1.0280,1.0300,1.0350,1.0385,1.0400 Buyers 1.0220,1.0200,1.0185,1.0150,1.0120

March EZ retail sales -0.1% vs -0.1% exp m/m Posted: 06 May 2013 02:00 AM PDT Prior -0.3% y/y -2.4% vs -2.2% exp. Prior -1.4% As expected on the month on month figure but the yearly slips by 0.2%. No reaction in the market.

USD/JPY looking for another shot at the title Posted: 06 May 2013 01:51 AM PDT Good morning everyone. Hope you all had a good weekend. The non-farm payrolls rally in USD/JPY looks set to continue with further gains see over night. 100 is still the level everyone has their eye on. 99.50 is the first which is the high from 25 April. The next high from there is around 99.68/75, then the high from 22 April at 99.84 (which is also the 50 fib level (from the June 2007/Oct 2011 hi/lo).   The fib level has been broken by the 99.94 high previously but it’s not been totally invalidated. The protection of the 100 level is more responsible for the halt than the fib level but in a quiet market may still hold up proceedings. The market seems happy to keep the bid on but it doesn’t look like it really wants to take on the big one just yet.We’ll see if the states fancy a Monday morning fight to kick the week off.

Eurozone Sentix Index may: -15.6 vs -15.2 exp Posted: 06 May 2013 01:30 AM PDT -17.3 prev

Eurozone services PMI april: 47.00 vs 46.6 exp Posted: 06 May 2013 12:58 AM PDT 46.6 prev composite 46.9  vs 46.6 exp  46.5 prev

EURUSD orders Posted: 06 May 2013 12:56 AM PDT Sellers  1.3125,1.3140,1.3150,1.3160,1.3180,1.3200, 1.3230,1.3250 Buyers 1.3080,1.3050,1.3030,1.3020,1.3000,1.2980

German services PMI april: 49.6 vs 49.2 exp Posted: 06 May 2013 12:53 AM PDT 49.2 prec

French services PMI april: 44.3 vs 44.1 exp Posted: 06 May 2013 12:48 AM PDT 44.1 prev composite 44.3 vs 44.2 prev

Italian services PMI april: 47.00 vs 45.8 exp Posted: 06 May 2013 12:44 AM PDT 45.5 prev highest reading since august 2011 EURUSD higher again 1.3110

USD gains in early trading Posted: 06 May 2013 12:30 AM PDT Thin liquidity is providing good opportunity for the USD bulls to have another attempt to drive higher with USDJPY leading the way, posting 99.46. Sell orders noted at 99.50-60 EURUSD down to 1.3093, GBPUSD 1.5561, AUDUSD lower again at 1.0267

Spanish services PMI april: 44.4 vs 45.3 prev Posted: 06 May 2013 12:20 AM PDT lowest reading since December services employment index rises to 43.1 vs 42.5 prev. but still 62 months of contraction n a row Not so good EURUSD lower at 1.3095

Spanish unemployment falls 0.91% in April Posted: 06 May 2013 12:15 AM PDT number of registered jobless falls by 46,050 m/m says Labour Ministry A little ray of sunshine at least

European equity markets open the week with caution Posted: 06 May 2013 12:08 AM PDT FTSE  Public Holiday DAX  0.0% CAC40 -0.1% IBEX 0.0% FTMIB -0.1%

Data coming up in this session Posted: 05 May 2013 11:21 PM PDT Good day everyone, and I trust you all had a great week-end. UK holiday here today but I’ll be here to cover the main events ,and Ryan will be along a little later too. Adam will be here for the  North American stint as usual. In the meantime here’s the data coming up  and I wish you a profitable session. Times GMT 07.43 Italian Services PMI April 45.8 exp vs 45..5 prev 07.48 French Services PMI April 44.1 exp vs 44.1 prev 07.53 German Services PMI April 49.2 VS 49.2 prev 07.58 Eurozone Services PMI April 46.6 vs 46.6 prev 08.30 Eurozone Sentix index May -15.2 exp vs -17.3 prev 09.00 Eurozone Retail Sales m/m -0.1% exp -0.3 prev y/y -2.2% exp -1.4% prev

Option expiries10am NY cut Posted: 05 May 2013 11:07 PM PDT USDJPY 95.50,96.50,97.00,98.00,98.50,99.00,100.00 EURUSD 1.2895,1.2950,1.3100,1.3195,1.3200,1.3550 AUDUSD 1.0200,1.0250,1.0330,1.0350, NZDUSD 0.8500 EURGBP 0.8500 EURCHD 1.2175,1.2200

ForexLive Asia Wrap: Australian resource sector capex pipeline starting to dry up Posted: 05 May 2013 09:00 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today China: HSBC Services PMI fell to 51.1 in April from 54.3 in March While the m/m Australia Retail Sales for March came in at a poor -0.4% (vs. +0.1% expected), inflation-adjusted retail sales for Q1 were better, at 2.2% (vs. 1.7% expected). A poor result from the Australia April ANZ Job Advertisement, in at -1.3% (vs. -0.5% prior, which, on the plus side, was revised up from a lower -1.5%) The latest Deloitte Access Economics "Investment Monitor" shows a looming downturn in resource-related investment, with projects being shelved and not replaced with new. If you are trading AUD, you really need to read this. Australia TD Securities/Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge 0.3% m/m (vs. prior 0.2% m/m) Australia TD Securities/Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge 2.1% y/y (vs. prior 2.1% y/y) Australia's federal Treasury has downgraded its economic growth forecast for this year and next by 0.25%, predicting a slowdown. Oskar Lafontaine, the German finance minister who launched the euro, has now called for its break-up in order to let southern Europe recover With Japan and the UK on holiday today, those trading currencies seemed content to extend their own weekends, keeping movements very limited indeed. USD/JPY had a 15 point range around 99.00. EUR/USD popped a little in the morning, to 1.3135/40 and settled around 1.3120/25 for the balance of the day. GBP/USD dipped to 1.5535/40 in the early New Zealand morning at a time of near-zero liquidity but then recovered to test New York highs just below 1.5600 before settling 1.5575/80. NZD/USD had a quiet session, grinding away in a 20 points range either side of its Friday New York close. AUD/USD moved quietly lower almost from the off today, then fell harder on poor March retail sales. The news and data flow for AUD has been very negative of late going into the RBA monetary policy meeting tomorrow. Economist surveys say not to expect any cut, while market pricing suggest a 55% probability of a cut.

UK press (front page of The Times): Osborne home plan ‘risks price bubble’ Posted: 05 May 2013 08:56 PM PDT Fathom Consulting says the UK government's ‘Help to Buy’ scheme risks creating a new housing bubble: could push up house prices by almost 30pc by the end of 2015 The warning is carried on the front page of The Times, full article here (but gated). An ungated article covering the same topic can be found at The Telegraph: Help to Buy ‘bubble’ could push house prices up by 30pc

Australia: Mining tax forecasts halve Posted: 05 May 2013 08:33 PM PDT An article from Australian mining, reporting the Australian Parliamentary Budget Office have again been revised down projected earnings for the mining tax; latest figures predicting it will only raise $800 million. Furthering the budget hole facing the government. Mining tax forecasts halve

Bloomberg article: Lenders may create Bitcoin rivals, says New Zealand bank group Posted: 05 May 2013 08:08 PM PDT A weekend article on Bloomberg says commercial banks may create digital currencies to rival Bitcoin, according to the head of New Zealand's banking lobby, the New Zealand Bankers' Association. A bitcoin created by banks. What could possible go wrong?

Recap of HSBC China April Services PMI Posted: 05 May 2013 07:33 PM PDT The HSBC Services PMI fell to 51.1 in April from 54.3 in March Slowest in 20 months (since August 2011) While a reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, this is a very slow result “The cooling of service sector activity in April likely reflected the knock-on effect of slower manufacturing growth, the impact of property tightening measures and the spreading bird flu,” said HSBC’s China chief economist Qu Hongbin. More at Reuters article: China HSBC April services PMI falls to lowest in nearly two years - AUD/USD has remained weak after the HSBC China PMI added to a string of bad news and data points today. Retails sales down, job ads down (but back month revised higher, which is a plus), Deloitte investment monitor turing more negative. There are AUD/USD buy orders 1.0270/80 which are holding it. Sell orders starting to cluster 1.0305/15. Its a Tokyo and London holiday today, so movement may be limited until we get the New York market active.

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