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• Euro popping to 1.3130. EUR/GBP pops to 0.8475
• AUD/USD clawing it’s way back
• More from Asmussen: Expects Cyprus economy to rebound in 2015
• Fergie retires- Official
• ECB’s Asmussen: Cypriot bailout highlights need for banking union
• EURUSD fails to hold early gains as sell orders prevail
• Swiss CPI april: m/m 0.0 % vs +0.1% exp
• European equity markets show little change on the open
• UK house price index april: m/m +1.1% vs +0.1% exp
• Trading Ideas
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.74% at 14,285.69
• EURUSD orders
• EURUSD a little higher in early trading: asian sovereign buying noted
• UK coalition government to unveil its forthcoming agenda in today’s Queens Speech
• Is Fergie set to step down at Old Trafford?
• UK PM Cameron unable to bring forward legislation for EU referendum
• Data coming up in this session
• Option expiries 10am NY cut
• ForexLive Asia Wrap: New Zealand Dollar loses a cent as RBNZ Governor confirms intervention
• Bloomberg article: Wheeler Selling Kiwi to Weaken World’s Best-Performing Currency

Euro popping to 1.3130. EUR/GBP pops to 0.8475 Posted: 08 May 2013 01:58 AM PDT Unknown reason for the moment USD/CHF is taking a dip through 0.9400 to 0.9380 with GBP/CHF following suit down to 1.4525 from 1.4555.

AUD/USD clawing it’s way back Posted: 08 May 2013 01:55 AM PDT It managed a post cut low down to 1.0150 where, if stories are to be believed, George Soros may have been taking profit. There was a small dip back to 1.0150 on the back of the NZ intervention news but data from China soon wiped that loss and we’ve been steadily pushing back up. Tech wise there’s not a lot going on. For you intraday traders and scalpers there’s the 38.2 fib level of the rate move at 1.0218. I prefer to draw my fibs over a longer time frame starting from about a week so on my chart I’ve got the fibs from the 30 April Hi/lo. The 38.2 comes in at 1.0241. Before we get there though there is firm resistance between 1.0229/39.  Above there we have the bottom of the broken trend line and 55 H4 ma at 1.0280 then the 100 H4 ma at 1.0290 To the downside we have strong support at 1.0150 and more at 1.0140/45. Below there we find the 2013 low at 1.0114 with the July 2012 low at 1.0095 Overall I’m neither bullish or bearish on the pair. Sell off’s have been met with strong demand so I’m inclined to look for the long trade rather than the short trade. I’m going to look to get in small at 1.0150 and add more around 1.0120 then more ahead of 1.0100, with a stop at around 1.0080/85. As with all trades I’ll be noting the reason for the market moving to my levels before trading.

More from Asmussen: Expects Cyprus economy to rebound in 2015 Posted: 08 May 2013 01:50 AM PDT but macro risks are tilted to downside No, really ? Whatever this man is getting paid is way too much.

Fergie retires- Official Posted: 08 May 2013 01:26 AM PDT so says a club statement just out on Reuters Further to my earlier post this morning Sir Alex Ferguson steps down as manager of Man Utd at the end of the season and will become a director and ambassador for the club. Given that the club are stock-exchange listed they were duty bound to make a statement regarding  key information given all the speculation this morning The official statment says:  ”The most successful manager in English football history will bow out after the West Bromwich Albion game on 19 May and join the football club board.” Sir Alex says: The decision to retire is one that I have thought a great deal about and one that I have not taken lightly. It is the right time.”It was important to me to leave an organisation in the strongest possible shape and I believe I have done so. The quality of this league winning squad, and the balance of ages within it, bodes well for continued success at the highest level whilst the structure of the youth set-up will ensure that the long-term future of the club remains a bright one.” All the important news here at ForexLive!

ECB’s Asmussen: Cypriot bailout highlights need for banking union Posted: 08 May 2013 01:01 AM PDT All we’ve heard all bloody week is how important this banking union is yet in usual euro stylee everyone is talking instead of doing. The Cypriot case has been a salutary reminder of the importance of establishing banking union as swiftly as possible. Only then we will be able to break the negative interaction between sovereigns and their banking systems He was speaking to the economic and monetary affairs committee Cyprus bank reliance on ELA still unnaturally high Banking sector in Cyprus not yet stabilized

EURUSD fails to hold early gains as sell orders prevail Posted: 08 May 2013 12:20 AM PDT We’re back down to 1.3100 after highs of 1.3120. We mentioned the sell orders starting at 1.3120 with larger interest between 1.3130-50 and these have held the initial rally

Swiss CPI april: m/m 0.0 % vs +0.1% exp Posted: 08 May 2013 12:15 AM PDT +0.2% prev y/y -0.6% vs -0.6% exp/prev

European equity markets show little change on the open Posted: 08 May 2013 12:14 AM PDT FTSE -0.1% DAX 0% CAC40 0% IBEX 0% FTMIB +0.2%

UK house price index april: m/m +1.1% vs +0.1% exp Posted: 08 May 2013 12:09 AM PDT y/y +2% vs +1.6% +1.1% prev. highest since sept 2010 The latest Halifax housing index showing some improvement but not an immediate game changer GBPUSD still at 1.5484

Trading Ideas Posted: 07 May 2013 11:45 PM PDT Ok folks, as Europe slowly awakes let’s have your trading ideas/market thoughts in this thread. Reasons welcome as always.

Nikkei 225 closed up 0.74% at 14,285.69 Posted: 07 May 2013 11:42 PM PDT

EURUSD orders Posted: 07 May 2013 11:40 PM PDT Early buying has seen a rally to 1.3114 but stalling at the moment ahead of the first offers at 1.3120.  currently 1.3105 Sellers 1.3120,1.3130,1.3150,1.3160,1.3180,1.3200 Buyers 1.3075,1.3050,1.3025,1.3000,1.2985

EURUSD a little higher in early trading: asian sovereign buying noted Posted: 07 May 2013 11:18 PM PDT Currently up to 1.3110 I’m hearing reports that the buying interest is coming from at least one Asian sovereign  to diversify USD reserves

UK coalition government to unveil its forthcoming agenda in today’s Queens Speech Posted: 07 May 2013 10:25 PM PDT Amidst much pomp and circumstance the Queen will today deliver the UK government’s plans for the next year. The BBC carries these two features What is the Queens Speech? What to expect

Is Fergie set to step down at Old Trafford? Posted: 07 May 2013 10:16 PM PDT Of course, I bring you this story in the best interests of anyone amongst you who are shareholders in Manchester United . Rumours are now rife that Sir Alex will be making an announcement ahead of Sunday’s game and will step down as manager this summer after 27 years at the helm but the club will be duty bound to make a statement asap given the intense speculation this morning. David Moyes, the Everton manager, is being backed heavily to take over with the Special One reportedly already leaving Madrid and bound for Chelsea. But what price for him to end up in Manchester rather than London? The BBC carries a variety of reports here

UK PM Cameron unable to bring forward legislation for EU referendum Posted: 07 May 2013 09:53 PM PDT The rise of  UKIP, the anti-EU party, has largely been brought about by disgruntled voters who simply don’t believe that Mr Cameron will be held to his promise of an in-out referendum if they are  returned at the next general election due in 2015. Despite noises from him prior to last week’s local elections that he will attempt to put leglislation in place prior to the election to ensure a referendum takes place he now admits that it simply isn’t possible Writing to a group of MPs this week he says "I completely understand the serious case you make for legislation. You know, however, that this Government's legislative programme is founded on the Coalition Agreement which did not include legislating in this Parliament for an In-Out referendum."For the Government to be able to bring forward the type of legislation you propose, we would require the agreement of our Coalition partners which, as things stand, is not forthcoming." Just another add-on to the EU referendum story that will be running for a while yet. The Telegraph carries the story here

Data coming up in this session Posted: 07 May 2013 09:35 PM PDT Good day everyone, It will be interesting to see whether Mr Wheeler has merely just caught the markets off guard (central banking tactics at their best if so) or whether investors will shrug off this warning shot, say thanks and resume piling back in to the Kiwi at better levels. Little of note on the data front in this session but given the reaction to yesterday’s better German factory orders the markets will be looking for a decent industrial production number from them later at 10.00 GMT. Apart from that, and the usual risk of tape bombs of course, it looks like we’ll have a range bound morning ( famous last words hopefully! ). Good luck out there.

Option expiries 10am NY cut Posted: 07 May 2013 09:22 PM PDT USDJPY 98.00,98.40,98.50,98.55,98.60,98.75,98.95,99.00,100.00 EURUSD 1.3000,1.3050,1.3075,1.3100,1.3125,1.3150,1.3170,1.3220 USDCHF 0.9375 AUDUSD 1.0150,1.0200 NZDUSD V0.8400 EURJPY 128.25,130.00 AUDJPY 100.00 AUDNZD 1.2050

ForexLive Asia Wrap: New Zealand Dollar loses a cent as RBNZ Governor confirms intervention Posted: 07 May 2013 09:02 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Financial Stability Report was released today At the news conference RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler made comments, such as that the exchange rate is 'perhaps' significantly overvalued and is hindering rebalancing It was later, though when Wheeler appeared before the parliament in front of the Select Committee on Financial Stability to discuss the Financial Stability Report that he repeated his earlier comments about the NZD being overvalued, and that there is scope to cut rates if the house price risk removed (the stability report said there would be increases in the capital that must be held by banks against high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) mortgages is an effort to curb the rapidly rising prices on houses), and most importantly, that the RBNZ had, in fact, sold New Zealand dollars as an intervention strategy to ‘take the top of the rallies’ China April trade balance $18.16bn surplus (vs. $16.15bn expected) China April exports up 14.7% y/y (vs. 9.2% expected) China April imports up 16.8% y/y (vs. +13.0% expected) BOJ head Kuroda said the BOJ is not financing government debt UK data: BRC sales data for April -2.2% y/y (vs. +1.9% expected) NZD/USD was where most of the action was today. Wheeler's early press-conference comments knocked points off the rate from 0.8460 to circa 0.8440, but it recovered. It was later when Wheeler addressed a parliamentary committee (see bullets, above) that he dropped his 'intervention' bombshell, chopping a cent off the kiwi to a low of 0.8360 before rebounding to 0.8400. The intervention size was not confirmed (we'll have to wait until RBNZ balance sheet figures are published on May 30 for an indication of size). USD/JPY cracked the support level it had established around 98.85/90, getting as low as 98.64 before being scooped up again. There are bids layered lower in USD/JPY, offset by plenty of offers, keeping it tightly range bound today. EUR/USD found some initial support on reports in  German newspaper of the ECB looking at buying bad loans from Southern European nations. It popped a little later then, on the better than expected Chinese trade data. The Chinese figures also lent support to GBP/USD, which gained 10 points and then just as quickly gave them back. AUD/USD, too, found support on the data, bouncing from 1.0155/60 to 1.0192/97 before settling sideways again.

Bloomberg article: Wheeler Selling Kiwi to Weaken World’s Best-Performing Currency Posted: 07 May 2013 08:37 PM PDT Just a recap of what we already know, but an interesting read nonetheless. "There has been some intervention," Wheeler told parliament's finance and expenditure select committee in Wellington today. Wheeler said he reserves the right for further intervention In February he had said investors should the kiwi isn't a "one-way bet"

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