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- Upside pressure remains in GBP/USD
- Spanish bond auction results: Sold EUR 4.57 bln vs 3.5-4.5 bln target
- UK industrial production march: +0.7 % vs +0.2% exp
- March UK manufacturing output 1.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m
- GBPUSD orders
- Trading the UK data
- EURUSD orders
- ECB forecasts: 2013 GDP -0.4% from 0.0% prior
- EURUSD rally more convincing
- What to expect from the Old Lady
- EURUSD bounces from session lows but rally unconvincing
- European equity markets open lower
- Nikkei 225 closes down 0.66% at 14,191.48
- Trading Ideas 9th May
- UK politics: What the Queens Speech didn’t say
- Japan’s coincident indicator march: m/m +0.8 vs +0.5 prev
- Data coming up in this session
- Option expiries 10am NY cut
- ForexLive Asia Wrap: Huge Australian employment report beat again today!
- Did Australian PM Julia Gillard let the cat out of the bag on the employment figures early? Australian dollar went up
| Upside pressure remains in GBP/USD Posted: 09 May 2013 01:48 AM PDT We’ve gone well bid again on the back of the strong data but I’m getting a slight feeling of reluctance to really go for a big push. As Mike detailed on the order board strong sellers at 1.5600/10 are in place and we’ve opened up on top of the 100 dma which is down at 1.5525 this is also the level for the 55 H4ma.
The topside has the well known 50 fib at 1.5604 and the upper channel line which is now at 1.5615. Look for the overnight lows around 1.5530/40 to hold should we slide before the BOE and as always be aware of potential position jockeying closer to the announcement. |
| Spanish bond auction results: Sold EUR 4.57 bln vs 3.5-4.5 bln target Posted: 09 May 2013 01:47 AM PDT Adding detail now
Reasons to be cheerful part 3 ( again )
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| UK industrial production march: +0.7 % vs +0.2% exp Posted: 09 May 2013 01:30 AM PDT
Much stronger than expected but as I said earlier the market was positioning for better numbers. Downward revisions also for m/m and y/y First wave GBPUSD buying to 1.5586 but stalling for the moment ahead of large sell interest between 1.5600-10 as I posted EURGBP down to 0.8447
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| March UK manufacturing output 1.1% vs 0.3% exp m/m Posted: 09 May 2013 01:30 AM PDT
Feb revised down to 0.7% from 0.8% m/m. -1.6% from -1.4% y/y Another good strong raft of data which will underpin cable and raise talk of the green shoots of economic recovery. Cable into 1.5580. |
| Posted: 09 May 2013 01:26 AM PDT Ahead of the data at the bottom of the hour here’s what’s out there Sellers 1.5565,1.5580,1.5600,1.5610,1.5630,1.5650,1.5675 Buyers 1.5540, 1.5530, 1.5520,1.5500, 1.5480
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| Posted: 09 May 2013 01:25 AM PDT I echo what Mike says about the possible results today with regards to the UK data and BOE this morning. Even so we are likely to get some nice movement from one or both events. I’ve got my plan in place and I’m looking for a poor read from the industrial production figure to get long of cable. A nice 50 pip slide would be preferable but that will need a really big miss. The BOE is likely to stay unchanged and the market more or less has that priced in though I can still see a small pop if that happens. Depending on where we are after IP will determine whether 1.56 finally get’s taken out. If we are around 1.5570/80 then I would expect it to go. I’m loathed to buy it up here so may well miss the boat. |
| Posted: 09 May 2013 01:09 AM PDT Given the scrappy, thin start to the session here’s a look at the orderboard Sellers 1.3190, 1.3200 ( 1 bln option expiry today), 1.3220, 1.3230,1.3250 Buyers 1.3140, 1.3125,1.3100,1.3070,1.3050, 1.3000 ( 700 mln option expiry today)
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| ECB forecasts: 2013 GDP -0.4% from 0.0% prior Posted: 09 May 2013 01:07 AM PDT GDP
Inflation HCIP
Data is from the quarterly in-house SPF (Survey of professional forecasters) report |
| Posted: 09 May 2013 12:57 AM PDT So much for the unconvincing rally! We’re now back up at session highs around 1.3172 I said that the dips would attract ACB buying interest and I hear they did indeed step in. EURJPY finding a few buyers too as USDJPY bounces from session lows at 98.65. Currently 130.14. All very scrappy though in tight ranges still. |
| What to expect from the Old Lady Posted: 09 May 2013 12:47 AM PDT In a word, nothing Recent stronger data releases have reduced the call/need for additional easing and I ( and everyone else ) expect the BOE to keep rates and QE on hold when they announce at 11.00 GMT More likely to give rise to risk is the industrial and manufacturing production data due out at 08.30 GMT. Traders are positioning for positive readings given the recent better than expected PMI releases so the risk will be to the downside. GBPUSD currently going nowhere fast at 1.5550, but attracting a few buyers in the dip. EURGBP just popping back up to 0.8461 from session lows of 0.8456 as EURUSD makes a stronger rally to 1.3158 |
| EURUSD bounces from session lows but rally unconvincing Posted: 09 May 2013 12:38 AM PDT This pair has been drifting lower all morning and has posted new session lows of 1.3141 before a small rally, but as yet unconvincing at 1.3149. Additional pressure from EURGBP sellers ahead of the UK data at 08.30 GMT Talk of ACB buying interest in the EURUSD dips still for USD diversification. Next support seen at 1.3125
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| European equity markets open lower Posted: 09 May 2013 12:08 AM PDT
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| Nikkei 225 closes down 0.66% at 14,191.48 Posted: 08 May 2013 11:02 PM PDT
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| Posted: 08 May 2013 11:01 PM PDT As once again we wait for the European markets to kick into action ( hopefully!) let’s have your trading ideas in this thread to share with your fellow readers Reasons welcome as always. |
| UK politics: What the Queens Speech didn’t say Posted: 08 May 2013 10:31 PM PDT |
| Japan’s coincident indicator march: m/m +0.8 vs +0.5 prev Posted: 08 May 2013 10:22 PM PDT
USDJPY little changed near session lows at 98.73
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| Data coming up in this session Posted: 08 May 2013 09:52 PM PDT Good day everyone, Excellent news on the jobs front from down-under eh? Here’s what’s coming up in this session with the standouts being released from the UK Focus will be on the BOE’s latest decision at 11.00 GMT but with most expecting no change we may get more reaction from the manufacturing and industrial production data at 08.30 GMT. In any case we’ll bring you ball-by-ball coverage as always. Have a great session. Times BST ( GMT+1)
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| Posted: 08 May 2013 09:41 PM PDT
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| ForexLive Asia Wrap: Huge Australian employment report beat again today! Posted: 08 May 2013 09:12 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today
OK, let's get the laggards out of the way first. EUR, GBP and yen all had very, very quiet sessions, with nary a handful of points between them. Lazy buggers. NZD/USD carried on with its volatile ways , moving higher instantly on its better than expected employment numbers early in the session. It found sellers around 0.8460 but chewed through the level and popped a little higher before settling around 60 for the balance of the session. But the MVP goes to AUD today. It popped a little higher initially today to coincide with comments from Prime Minister Julia Gillard saying the Australian economy was continuing to create jobs. She said this about 2 and a half hours before today's employment report, which caused me to think that maybe the figures would be good ones. They were. After February's huge gain of 71,500 today's gain of 50,100 was another great result, well above expectations. AUD soared, getting up to 1.0240/45 and settling before thrusting a little higher again as the afternoon progressed. The only stone in the shoe was the Chinese CPI, which came in slightly above expectations but still well below the 3.5% Chinese authorities are comfortable with. |
| Posted: 08 May 2013 08:51 PM PDT Earlier today Australia’s Prime Minister Julia Gillard was doing a radio interview. One of the things she said struck me as a bit odd. Here’s what I posted at the time (0200GMT)
Here’s what the AUD did at the time:
The AUD never lost ground after this statement, and here’s what it did after the employment report:
It seems to me that Gillard, who is facing an election September 14 would not have said the Australian economy is continuing to create jobs unless she was very sure that the employment data due a few hours later wouldn’t embarrass her. It doesn’t take much imagination to think what an opposition leader would do with a Prime Minister making such a statement only to be contradicted by data that same day. I think Ms. Gillard might have let the cat out of the bag, big time, today. And the cat made a lot of noise, if you were listening.
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