FxBriefs Weekly Wrap Up

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WEEKLY WRAP UP: June 15, 2013 FxBriefs US wrap: Yen strengthens across the board JUN. 14, 2013 18:00 GMT G8 leaders draft communique: Vulnerabilities remain for world economy in 2013 Japan Vice EconMin: Currency, stock markets undergoing correction.  No need to panic IMF: US deficit reduction this year ‘excessively rapid and ill-designed’ ECB’s Asmussen: No room for complacency for governments BOE’s McCafferty: Signs that recovery will be sustained U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index 82.7, weaker than 84.5 forecast U.S. May PPI +0.5% m/m, +1.7% y/y, stronger than median forecasts +0.1%, +1.4% U.S. Q1 current account deficit $106.15 vs median forecast of $111.3 bln U.S. May industrial production flat m/m, weaker than median forecast of +0.2% U.S. May capital utilization 77.6%, below median forecast of 77.9% USD/JPY is down at 94.25 from early 95.00, EUR/JPY down at 125.60 from early 126.50.  The yen has seen accelerated gains against the backdrop of renewed heavy selling of Nikkei futures. Barrier option interest touted now at 93.50.  Just ahead of there at 93.56 we have 38.2% fibo retracement of the 77.11-103.73 rally. EUR/USD sits at 1.3335, marginally firmer from the 1.3320 which greeted me.  Early reports had sell orders clustered 1.3350/65 and the release of weaker than expected US University of Michigan consumer sentiment (see above) helped us rally to have a look at them. They proved a brickwall and as EUR/JPY was sold off, so EUR/USD was dragged back lower. GBP/USD up at 1.5695 from early 1.5640. Seems to be quite a battle going on to see whether we close out the week below or above the 1.5700 200 dma. Apologies for finishing a little early, but been having some technical difficulties.  Pleasant w/e all. FxBriefs European wrap: Sterling wilts a little after recent good run JUN. 14, 2013 10:50 GMT Bank of England’s Tucker to leave bank.  Exit seen autumn 2013 French pension panel recommends keeping retirement age at 62 BOE’s McCafferty:  Certainly not the case that BOE is more tolerant of inflation More McCafferty: Risk that wages see catch-up growth when economy picks up UK April nsa construction output falls -6.5% m/m, -1.1% y/y Eurozone Q1 employment -0.5% q/q, -1.0% y/y. Biggest quarterly fall since Q2 2009 Eurozone May CPI +0.1% m/m, +1.4% y/y, as expected S&P affirms Spain’s BBB-/A-3 rating: outlook negative Brazil losing reserves fast as speculators attack real - AEP at The Telegraph Sterling has given ground this morning, not helped by pitiful construction output data (see above) Cable down at 1.5635 from early 1.5705, EUR/GBP up at .8520 from around .8500.  Sovereigns, real money, UK corporates among those seen selling cable today. Talk of buy orders clustered now down at 1.5600/10, sell stops through 1.5590. EUR/USD down marginally at 1.3325 from early 1.3350 in lacklustre trade. USD/JPY effectively unchanged at 94.90. FXbriefs Asian wrap: All about the Nikkei… again JUN. 14, 2013 04:39 GMT Pimco’s El-Erian: US economy is fundamentally weak / doesn’t see US GDP growing above 2% NZ Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.2 Japan’s Abe: Business sentiment is recovering BoJ minutes: Board members agree economy is picking up Amari: To seek economic revival bt early escape of deflation             Will implement growth strategy at unprecedented speed Aso: Corporate tax not as effective as many firms don’t pay USD/JPY opened at 95.40 and pushed higher in early trade, short covering seemed to be the reason, the moved aided by Nikkei futures, indicating the index was going to open +3.8%. Japanese exporter supply capped the move at 95.80 and the pair eased back to 95.50. The Nikkei opened up +1.9% and pushed higher but failed following through on the futures price action, as the index began to pare back gains, USD/JPY dropped a quick 100 points, down to 94.45. Longer term accounts were said to be buying on this move lower, pushing the pair back towards 95.10. Trading for the remainder of the session became choppy, centred between 94.70/95.10, liquidity an obvious issue. AUD/USD opened at 9560 and not for the first time this week, succumbing to selling pressure, the pair fell from 9650 to 9478, the catalyst came from the Nikkei, not posting gains the futures market had expected. Small clips of buying were seen from the corporates, but rallies remained short lived, macro names pushed it down further, posting a low of 9567,  before recovering to 9585 as Europe walked in. Initial support is seen at 9548, 50% fibo on the 9429 / 9665 move. Have a very pleasant weekend Warm regards Peter Was this email forwarded to you? 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