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Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Yen strengthens after Kuroda disappoints the bears

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 02:07 AM PDT

Seems like the yen bears were looking for a bit of help from Mr K but he failed to deliver

After hanging around 98.00 for a while USDJPY has  now trashed through support and Asian lows around 97.75, and further buy interest at 97.50

Stops triggered to 97.42. currently 97.50.

All aboard the roller coaster once more

EURJPY 129.55 from 129.46 lows but demand noted down here

ECB’s Likanen says OMT bond purchases has no pre-set limit

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 01:45 AM PDT

Following on from the week-end’s story, later denied by an ECB spokesman, that there may be a pre-determined ceiling to OMT

Junker’s had a nice time in Greece

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 01:41 AM PDT

  • Says he’s leaving Greece with great optimism
  • Nobody now speaks of Greek euro exit
  • Discussion now about coming recovery in Europe
  • Still work to be done by Greece and Europe
  • All efforts will be made to tackle unemployment
  • Says IMF and EU may have been optimistic on Greek plan
  • Mistakes have been made, results achieved

I’m sure that blasé comment makes your average Greek feel much better

Greek PM Antonis Samaras says they are already critical of first Greek EU-IMF program but can’t dwell on past mistakes.

  • State asset sales continue as scheduled. Except for gas that is ;-)
  • New tender for gas company will be issued soon
  • A path to a better tomorrow has been opened
  • Expects record tourism arrivals

 

 

UK industrial output april: m/m +0.1 % vs 0.0% exp

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 01:30 AM PDT

  • +0.7% prev
  • y/y  -0.6%  vs -1.7% exp  -1.4% prev. 25th consecutive fall

Oil production from Elgin field being cited as major contributor for increase

GBPUSD currently 1.5548. off its lows

 

Apr UK manufacturing production -0.2% vs -0.2% exp m/m

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 01:30 AM PDT

  • Prior 1.1%
  • -0.5% vs -0.3% exp y/y. Prior -1.4%

Still not out of the woods in the industrial sectors compared to the PMI’s and a mixed bag overall. It’s less negative than it could have been but shows there is still some way to go in any sort of recovery.

German high court president says court won’t rule on utility of ECB policy

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 01:19 AM PDT

  • Success of ECB policies plays no role deciding whether they are constitutional
  • Ends of ECB policy don’t justify the means
  • German constitutional court is only yardstick for the case

Andreas Vosskuhle kicking off proceedings in Karlsruhe and the German court hearing over the legalities of the ECB’s OMT program.

I expect it’s going to be soundbite city today.

Greece has it’s cap in hand again as it asks a favour from creditors

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 01:17 AM PDT

After it failed miserably to to sell it’s gas firm it’s asking creditors to lower 2013 privatisation target.

ECB’s Liikanen is ready to act!

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 01:01 AM PDT

Well, he says the ECB is ready to act and will monitor data very closely.

Comments come the Bank of Finland report.

  • Finnish GDP forecast is cut to -0.8% from +0.4% 2013. GDP to be 0.7% 2014.
  • Fin inflation to be 2.3% 2013, 1.9% 2014
  • Says risk of renewed worsening of crisis has not disappeared but probability is less

 

 

BOJ’s Kuroda: It’s undesireable for JGB volatility to increase

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 12:41 AM PDT

Here it comes folks!

  • will continue efforts to curb JGB volatility
  • BOJ is prepared to be more flexible with martket operations in response to a rise in yields
  • far too early to debate an exit from monetary easing
  • BOJ has decided no new tools are necessary now as market has stabilised ( oh really? )

USDJPY dips below 98.00 from 98.30.. currently 97.95

  • downside pressure on long-term rates will strengthen as BOJ bond buying continues
  • there is a strong incentive for banks to use BOJ’s scheme to support lending
  • BOJ’s year end forecast of its j-reit holdings not necessarily a ceiling for purchases
  • would consider extending fixed rate ops in the future if needed. BOJ debated on this but deemed it not necessary at the moment
  • do not seem much room to sharply boost buying of j-reits in the short term
  • BOJ’s large JGB buying will lower risk premium and become more effective over time

Keep up at the back !  USDJPY 98.12

  • stock price falls may affect consumer sentiment but trend is more important than short-term moves
  • steady improvement in jobs market likely to improve consumer sentiment
  • break-even inflation rates show signs of levelling off but other surveys show  inflation expectations rising
  • BOJ hopes the govt will act quickly to implement growth strategy

That’s it! I’m off to dip my fingers in a bucket of ice cold water

USDJPY 98.17  EURJPY 130.26 GBPJPY 152.57  AUDJPY 91.79

AUDUSD pops 0.9350

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 12:36 AM PDT

And the beat ( ing) goes on

Stops triggered below reported barrier option at 0.9350

Low post 0.9338

Anyone still bullish for this pair?

EURAUD buyers give AUDUSD a slap

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 12:13 AM PDT

I’m hearing of some good size EURAUD buying that’s driven AUDUSD through support at 0.9400 and 0.9380 in a rush

Add: Swiss names cited

Next support reportedly barrier option related at 0.9350. currently 0.9362.

audusd 11 june

European equity markets open lower

Posted: 11 Jun 2013 12:02 AM PDT

  • FTSE -0.5%
  • DAX -0.6%
  • CAC40 -0.4%
  • IBEX -0.6%
  • FTMIB  -0.4%

EURJPY orders

Posted: 10 Jun 2013 11:55 PM PDT

Currently 130.60

Sellers 130.70,130.90,131.00,131.20,131.40,131.50,132.00

Buyers 130.20,130.00,129.90,129.50,129.10,129.00,128.80

EURGBP orders

Posted: 10 Jun 2013 11:53 PM PDT

Currently 0.8515

Sellers, 0.8525,0.8535,0.8550,0.8580,0.8590,0.8600,0.8620

Buyers 0.8500,0.8480,0.8460,0.8450,0.8430,0.8400

AUDUSD orders

Posted: 10 Jun 2013 11:50 PM PDT

Currently 0.9416

Sellers 0.9450,0.9470,0.9480,0.9500,0.9520,0.9550

Buyers  0.9400,0.9385,0.9350*,0.9320,0.9300*   (* barrier option related)

USDJPY orders

Posted: 10 Jun 2013 11:45 PM PDT

Currently 98.35

Sellers 98.50,98.90,99.00,99.20,99.35,99.50

Buyers  98.10,97.90,97.80,97.70,97.60,97.50,97.25,97.00

EURUSD orders

Posted: 10 Jun 2013 11:42 PM PDT

Currently 1.3270

Sellers 1.3290,1.3300,1.3315,1.3340,1.3350,1.3380

Buyers 1.3250,1.3230,1.3200,1.3190,1.3160,1.3150,1.3120,1.3100

eurusd orders 11 june

GBPUSD orders

Posted: 10 Jun 2013 11:37 PM PDT

Currently 1.5580

Sellers 1.5610, 1.5635,1.5650,1.5675,1.5685,1.5700

Buyers 1.5565,1.5550,1.5510,1.5500,1.5490,1.5465,1.5450,1.5435,1.5400

gbpusd orders 11 june

Swiss govt raises 2013 growth forecast to +1.4%

Posted: 10 Jun 2013 11:10 PM PDT

So says SECO ( State Secretariat for Economics)

  • from +1.3% prev
  • sees 2013  inflation -0.1% vs +0.1% prev
  • 2014 growth forecast unchanged at +2.1%
  • 2014 inflation forecast unchanged at +0.2%
  • sees recovery in 2014 assuming global demand picks up and Eurozone recession ends

The last comment is somewhat obvious eh?

USDCHF  0.9335 EURCHF  1.2385

Nikkei closes down 1.45% at 13,317.62

Posted: 10 Jun 2013 11:08 PM PDT

  • high 13,584.31
  • low 13,296.31

Pip’s forecast in the comments box 13,410!

 

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