Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• EURGBP orders
• June German ZEW economic sentiment 38.5 vs 38.1 exp
• Swiss pairs under attack
• AUDUSD orders
• May UK Retail price index 3.1% vs 3.1% exp y/y
• UK PPI input may nsa: m/m -0.3% vs 0.0% exp
• May UK CPI 2.7% vs 2.6% exp y/y
• USDJPY orders
• GBPUSD orders
• EURUSD orders
• EURUSD posts 4-month highs at 1.3391
• UK inflation and price data at 8.30gmt
• Risk enters stage right
• European stocks in the red from opening
• UK’s Osborne: More progress on tax at G8 than in last 24 years
• Early market orders
• AUD/USD through bids at 0.9500
• Cable also following the euro in taking a bath
• May Japan machine tool orders -7.4% vs -7.4% prior y/y
• Draghi in Jerusalem: Will use non-standard measures if circumstances warrant

EURGBP orders Posted: 18 Jun 2013 02:04 AM PDT We’ve seen good demand in this pair all morning but failing so far to breach strong sell interest at 0.8550. Currently 0.8538 off its its highs of 0.8541 Sellers 0.8550,0.8565,0.8580,0.8590,0.8600,0.8620,0.8650 Buyers 0.8520,0.8500,0.8475,0.8460,0.8450, 0.8420,0.8400

June German ZEW economic sentiment 38.5 vs 38.1 exp Posted: 18 Jun 2013 02:00 AM PDT Prior 36.4 Current conditions index 8.6 vs 9.5 exp. Prior 8.9 EUR/USD dropped on release to 1.3370 but is now powering back towards 1.3400. Having some trouble breaking 1.3395 though. Through 1.3395 to 1.3399 and knocked back. Someone wants a crack at the DNT

Swiss pairs under attack Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:55 AM PDT No idea why but the Swiss pairs are dropping pretty swiftly. EUR/CHF down to 1.2308 from 1.2336 USD/CHF has just posted a low of 0.9192 I can see nothing in the news and there is still a element of risk in the market so I’m taking a long at 0.9200.

AUDUSD orders Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:51 AM PDT Currently at 94.79 just off session lows of 0.9465 and strong demand at 0.9450 Sellers  0.9500,0.9510,0.9520,0.9550,0.9575,0.9590,0.9600,0.9650 Buyers 0.9450,0.9430,0,0.9400,0.9390,0.9380,0.9350,0.9325

May UK Retail price index 3.1% vs 3.1% exp y/y Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:30 AM PDT Prior 2.9% 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 0.3% RPI excluding mortgage/ interest payments 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Y/Y 3.1% vs 3.1% exp. Prior 2.9%

UK PPI input may nsa: m/m -0.3% vs 0.0% exp Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:30 AM PDT -2.3% prev PPI output price nsa m/m  0.0 % vs 0.0% exp -0.1% prev input price y/y +2.2% vs  +2.5% exp  -0.1% prev output prices  y/y +1.2% vs +1.4% exp +0.9%prev revised down from +1.1% PPI core output m/m  +0.1%.  0.0% prev revised down from +0.1% PPI core input y/y +0.8% +0.7% prev revised down from +0.8% Lower than expected data which in theory gives the BOE more room to ease but CPI was higher GBPUSD lower a little at 1.5680 from 1.5691 prior and a spike to 1.5711 on CPI figures EURGBP 0.8536

May UK CPI 2.7% vs 2.6% exp y/y Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:30 AM PDT Prior 2.4% 0.2% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.2% Inflation jumps above expectations and is still a headwind faced by a UK recovery. GBP/USD down to 1.5684 from 1.5705 pre figure.

USDJPY orders Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:22 AM PDT Currently at 95.27 trying to break up through resistance at 95.30 Sellers 95.30,95.40,95.50,95.80,95.90,96.00,96.20,96.50 Buyers 94.90,94.50,94.10,94.00,93.80,93.70,93.50

GBPUSD orders Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:19 AM PDT Currently being sold off again to 1.5668 from 1.5700 ahead of the inflation data. Immediate support seen at 1.5650 Sellers 1.5720,1,5760,1.5790,1.5800,1.5810,1.5825,1.5840 Buyers 1.5650,1.5640,1.5620,1.5600,1.5585,1.5550

EURUSD orders Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:14 AM PDT Currently 1.3385 Sellers 1.3400 ( barrier option related),1.3420,1.3430,1.3450,1.3480,1.3500 Buyers  1.3350,1.3335,1.3320,1.3300,1.3280,1.3250,1.3230,1.3220,1.3200

EURUSD posts 4-month highs at 1.3391 Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:09 AM PDT Good day one and all I’m greeted with EURUSD trying to make an attack on the strong sell interest at 1.3400 that we’ve highlighted here previously Failed so far at 1.3391. currently 1.3380. Let’s see what pans out Have a great day folks

UK inflation and price data at 8.30gmt Posted: 18 Jun 2013 01:05 AM PDT Estimates are for a 0.2% rise in the headline yearly figure. The main driver for UK inflation is imported energy costs. Brent crude came down from over $110 in April and spent most of May below $105.  This could have some bearing over the figure and my opinion is that we are looking at flat or at the outside a drop in at least the monthly figure and possibly the yearly The main figures to watch are the PPI. As I’ve mentioned in the comments I watch these figures carefully as they are the best indicator for business price trends. Input prices show the cost effect to producers while output shows whether the costs are being passed on. Lower input prices are good for the economy as it helps competitiveness as is the ability to pass on costs to customers via the output prices.

Risk enters stage right Posted: 18 Jun 2013 12:41 AM PDT A little bit of risk coming into the market at the moment. USD/JPY has broken 95.00 once again and is heading for yesterdays highs at 95.20. Stops are said to be in place if 95.25 goes. Offers noted at 95.30, 95.40 and 95.50 The euro and pound are recovering from their earlier dip. EUR/USD has recovered the 25 pips loss from 1.3326 to 1.3352 GBP/USD has turned around from 1.5663 to 1.5685 but i struggling to cope with a surge in EUR/GBP which is pushing up to 0.8518. USd/CHF took a run up to 0.9261 and EUR/CHF up to 1.2357 with both now trading slightly lower. The only pair not joining the party is AUD/USD which has continued to make like a dying swan below 0.9500 and is on the lows at 0.9470.

European stocks in the red from opening Posted: 18 Jun 2013 12:36 AM PDT I missed the open so here’s the current levels FTSE -0.1% Dax -0.3% Cac -0.6% Ibex -0.4% FTSE MIB -0.1% European bonds Italy 4.27% flat Spain 4.58% flat Germany 1.56% +3bp

UK’s Osborne: More progress on tax at G8 than in last 24 years Posted: 18 Jun 2013 12:21 AM PDT Global tax rules need to be fit for this century If only they’d put more effort into dealing with growth than they are with taxes they’d have more tax to go after. Putting the cart before the horse if you ask me. If you want a very well reasoned and educated view on the tax issue then please have a read of the comment from DavidSLesperance on this post here. Mansion house speech will detail RBS and Lloyds plans (Wed 19th June) Taxpayers need to get money back on return of RBS Banks need to be strong supporters of UK economy More on tax Ownership of companies should be made public Consulting on making registers public

Early market orders Posted: 17 Jun 2013 11:50 PM PDT As traders start to roll in there’s some early orders ahead of Mike’s main order board later. USD/JPY still showing strong bids ahead of 94.00 with stops at 93.95, 93.75 and large stops on a break of 93.50 which is also holding option related bids. Stops on the top on a break of 95.25 EUR/USD is still holding the DNT leg at 1.3400 and stops are building above. Offers at 1.3380, 1.3400 Bids 1.3330 (may have been done) 1.3300/10, 1.3280 EUR/JPY has stops under 125.70 below and 127.00 above

AUD/USD through bids at 0.9500 Posted: 17 Jun 2013 11:39 PM PDT Knocked down to 0.9484. We have the 55 mma at 0.9479 which may hold things up for now but the pair is looking fragile again. Next support comes in at 0.9431

Cable also following the euro in taking a bath Posted: 17 Jun 2013 11:30 PM PDT Down through 1.5700 to a low of 1.5669 busting yesterdays low at 1.5680 Support is seen at 1.5645 then 1.5611

May Japan machine tool orders -7.4% vs -7.4% prior y/y Posted: 17 Jun 2013 11:04 PM PDT Again it’s the final revision

Draghi in Jerusalem: Will use non-standard measures if circumstances warrant Posted: 17 Jun 2013 11:00 PM PDT Has an open mind on non-standard measures Economic data shows some improvement Monetary policy has regained steering capacity ECB policy to remain accommodative as long as necessary Europe still has rich reform agenda ECB could further contribute to alleviating bank funding uncertainty by providing assurance  that they could rely on refinancing operations for extended periods. EUR/USD taking a dive to 1.3329. Nothing new from Mario except for the last line in bold. He has previously mentioned that LTRO’s may be extended but this is the first time that he has said anything concrete on it. He has also said that he does not thing that the ECB is materially challenged in its ability to deliver price stability by low level of interest rates. Another hint that low interest rates could be around a long while longer. Market is taking that fact and the possibility of lower rates to the bank.

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