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Sunday, June 2, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Reminder – Federal Reserve head Bernanke speaking on Sunday

Posted: 01 Jun 2013 10:47 PM PDT

I posted on Friday that Ben Bernanke was speaking Sunday at 1800GMT (2pm Eastern US daylight-saving time).

He is giving a graduation address at Princeton University. I think it is perhaps unlikely that he says anything significant on monetary policy etc. But you never know, which is why I posted the details on Friday. Murphy’s Law being what it is and all.

 

I need one of these for those busy days

Posted: 01 Jun 2013 10:27 PM PDT

We’ve got an RBA monetary policy decision due this week on Tuesday (4th). And next week I’ll be waiting for the BOJ announcement on Tuesday the 11th.

These are busy days, especially for the BOJ when there is no scheduled announcement time – it happens when it happens and woe betide if you are off the desk for any reason. Hence the need for a stadium pal.

But what about at the input-end, if you need to eat something?

Burger King to the rescue!

Market talk this weekend – nerves on crowded trades

Posted: 01 Jun 2013 10:19 PM PDT

Bit of chat around the market this weekend that the dangers of the crowded QE trades are starting to surface.

  • Resource currencies have broken rapidly lower
  • Commodity prices continue relatively weak
  • While there is no solid indication yet that the Fed (and other central banks) liquidity cascade is coming to an end, market volatility has caused participants to reconsider how crowded trades are, and how small the door might be at exit time

Spanish PM Rajoy says jobless data next week is likely to be encouraging

Posted: 01 Jun 2013 10:12 PM PDT

Spanish PM Rajoy, speaking a few hours before protests against austerity were due to begin in Madrid and other European capitals.

Rajoy said the figures would show the economy had begun to turn a corner after slipping in and out of recession for five years

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Why, if Rajoy seems to have  already seen the figures, can’t they just be released publicly already?

China official May PMI rises to 50.8 (vs. 50.6 in April); expands while HSBC’s ‘flash’ reading last week contracts

Posted: 01 Jun 2013 10:03 PM PDT

China’s official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), from the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was published on Saturday; it rose to 50.8 for May from 50.6 in April. Expectations were for a result of 50. During the week we saw the HSBC ‘flash’ PMI for May come in at a contractionary 49.6, a decline from 50.4 in April.

So we have HSBC PMI coming in much weaker, into contraction, and falling, with the ‘official PMI showing stronger expansion and rising. Given the questions often raised about Chinese economic data, I’m erring on the side of trusting the HSBC figures.

 

South Korea exports in May +3.2% y/y

Posted: 01 Jun 2013 09:51 PM PDT

If South Korean export performance is held to be an indicator of global economic health then some good news on Saturday, with may exports up 3.2% y/y (after a 0.4% gain y/y for April). It also seems the declining yen is not having as bad an impact on Korean exports as was expected.

  • Imports were down 4.8% y/y in May, the fourth consecutive decline

 


at 5:05 PM

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