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• Australian press: NAB, Westpac and Goldman have further cut their Aussie dollar forecasts
• Wall Street Journal interview with Bank of Japan deputy governor Nakaso
• IMF data: Central banks loaded up on the Australian, Canadian dollars in the first quarter
• Rugby Union: Wallabies beat Lions to level the series
• US Mint: Sales of American Eagle gold bullion coins down in June, to their lowest since August 2012
• ECB’s executive board member Benoît Cœuré: European Central Bank is looking carefully at forward guidance
• German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble: Irish bail-out banker jokers worthy of contempt
• Just back from holiday? What caused China’s money market crunch?
• Carney takes over the Bank of England on Monday
• Former BOE Governor suggests Carney start term on a quiet note

Australian press: NAB, Westpac and Goldman have further cut their Aussie dollar forecasts Posted: 29 Jun 2013 05:35 PM PDT National Australia Bank cut its forecasts out to the end of 2014: decline to US88 cents by December 2013 (down from its prior of US93c) down to US83c by December 2014, from its earlier forecast of US87c Goldman’s this week: to US86c next year, from US91c and to US85c in 2015, from US89c Westpac: the AUD will trade around the “low to mid US90c area” in 2014 (down from its previous forecast of an average of US96c) Full article: NAB, Westpac and Goldman have further cut their Aussie dollar forecasts

Wall Street Journal interview with Bank of Japan deputy governor Nakaso Posted: 29 Jun 2013 05:30 PM PDT From an interview Friday with BOJ deputy governor Hiroshi Nakaso. Article is here: BOJ Deputy Governor Says Japan Is on Track (The Wall Street Journal is often gated, so if you're unable to access the article try a search of Google news using the headline) . Non-gated excerpts are here: BOJ Beat: Q&A With the Central Bank's Deputy Governor and more here  the Japanese economy is on track to recovery a virtuous cycle of production, income and spending expected to be maintained  the policy seems to be working. We think no additional measure is necessary at this point." JGB market seems to be now stabilizing

IMF data: Central banks loaded up on the Australian, Canadian dollars in the first quarter Posted: 29 Jun 2013 05:22 PM PDT International Monetary Fund data showed on Friday the increase in Australian and Canadian dollar holdings by central banks: Central banks held US$98.66 billion in the Australian currency globally as of the first quarter 2013, compared with US$89.74 billion in the final quarter of 2012 They held US$94.93 billion in Canadian dollars,(compared with US$90.05 billion in Q4 2012) The IMF has previously classified central bank holdings in the Australian and Canadian dollars under “Other Currencies”, this is the first time they have provided details for these two separately Reuters

Rugby Union: Wallabies beat Lions to level the series Posted: 29 Jun 2013 05:08 PM PDT The Wallabies beat the Lions 16-15 in the second game of the series on Saturday evening in Melbourne. Australian captain, James Horwill, was quoed after the game: “Take that, Mike at ForexLive!” Sydney Morning Herald. The deciding match is on July 6 in Sydney.

US Mint: Sales of American Eagle gold bullion coins down in June, to their lowest since August 2012 Posted: 29 Jun 2013 05:06 PM PDT The US Mint’s website says physical demand from retail investors and collectors fell The total was down 19% from May 57,000 ounces sold in June, their lowest since August last year 2012 and compared to 209,500 ounces sold in April 2013 Source: US Mint website

ECB’s executive board member Benoît Cœuré: European Central Bank is looking carefully at forward guidance Posted: 29 Jun 2013 05:01 PM PDT ECB’s executive board member Benoît Cœuré has told The Times that the ECB is looking carefully at forward guidance but it is too early to say whether it will be used more extensively. Forward guidance is used by the US Federal Reserve Is being considered by the Bank of England Also: Coeuré predicts the euro zone economy will recover slowly, with growth expected in the second half of 2013 and a further pick up in 2014 More at Reuters

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble: Irish bail-out banker jokers worthy of contempt Posted: 29 Jun 2013 04:59 PM PDT Schaeuble is quoted in German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, to be published Sunday. “These bankers seem to like themselves in the role of aloof super humans who only have contempt for their fellow humans,” Schaeuble was quoted as saying. “Instead it is they who should get our contempt and to whose game we should put a stop.” And, most importantly: Schaeuble said the tape recordings highlighted “how necessary and important it was to introduce clear rules into the financial markets”. Reuters

Just back from holiday? What caused China’s money market crunch? Posted: 29 Jun 2013 04:58 PM PDT If you’re just back from holdiay here’s some background information on the liquidity squeeze in China of the past two weeks. What caused China’s money market crunch?

Carney takes over the Bank of England on Monday Posted: 29 Jun 2013 09:26 AM PDT Monday is the Canada Day holiday and the country celebrates 144 of independence from Britain by taking over one of the UK’s oldest institutions as Mark Carney becomes the first foreigner to lead the Bank of England. The UK press has been sharpening its knives for Carney, who has an overblown reputation as the Superman of central banking. The FT has an extensive profile of Carney and a behind the scenes look at how he got the job. Having won over many sceptics with his single performance in Britain since his appointment, and raised expectations to levels almost guaranteed to produce disappointment, the question is whether Carney can replicate his Canadian reputation once in post at the bank. The good news for Carney is that he takes over from Mervyn King who was easily the worst central banker of his generation (although this columnist gives him some credit). Yesterday, I woke up at an obscenely early hour to speak with BBC radio about Carney.

Former BOE Governor suggests Carney start term on a quiet note Posted: 29 Jun 2013 08:50 AM PDT Andrew Sentance, who was on the MPC from 2006-2011, says Carney shouldn’t take any action in his first 100 days as BOE leader. Carney should be predominantly in listening, observing and learning mode. Coming from Canada, his main challenge will be to familiarise himself with the British economy, the operation of the UK financial system and the views of key stakeholders. He should get out and about – both in the regions and in the City – and use the media to communicate the view that he is seeking to understand the challenges which the UK economy and financial system are currently facing as the basis for his actions over the next five years. Inside the Bank, he should initiate a total overhaul of the Bank's Inflation Forecast and Inflation Report process. The Bank's recent forecasting performance has been poor and it has been far too optimistic on inflation. Sentance was a lousy central banker and this is lousy advice. Carney needs to kick-start the moribund UK economy with action. A walk in the English countryside isn’t going to give him insight on how to cure the economy.

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