Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• Reuters article: China trade data underscores growth worries
• China Trade Balance for May; imports, exports
• ForexLive Americas wrap: Dollar rises like a phoenix from the flames
• US stock close 7 June:Stocks ignore Forex panic
• CFTC: Euro shorts trimmed
• Speaking of sinking ships
• BOC’s Harrison jumps from the sinking ship
• April US Consumer credit $11.1bn vs $12.00bn exp
• EU expects nations to bear full bank aid burden before 2015
• Fed’s Plosser reckons jobs report shows the sequester is doing less damage than feared
• Nikkei futures have been Thunderstruck
• Funky Friday it is
• Russian deputy finance minister: G20 unlikely to set debt targets at summit
• Time for some tuuuuuuunes
• Italy’s finance minister Saccomanni says risk of euro break up has diminished
• Hilsenrath still sees fed tapering later this year
• USD/JPY kicks some butt on the European close
• FTSE price winner is Marvin
• European stock close 7 June: Equities laugh at currencies hissy fit
• ECB’s Coene sees a stable, more solid base for economic recovery

Reuters article: China trade data underscores growth worries Posted: 07 Jun 2013 09:58 PM PDT China’s exports posted their lowest growth rate in almost a year in May Recent bumper export figures may well have been the result of invoice-inflation as capital sought ways of flooding into China as a bet on the rising value of the yuan (capital inflows are otherwise tightly controlled) Today's figures may well be giving a much more accurate picture of export levels (i.e. growth in exports is very weak) Imports also down, much lower than expected More here at Reuters article

China Trade Balance for May; imports, exports Posted: 07 Jun 2013 08:57 PM PDT China Trade Balance (USD) for May, +20.4B (expected $20.00B, prior $18.16B) Exports y/y% for May, +1% (expected 7.4%, prior 14.7%) Imports y/y% for May, -0.3% (expected 6.6%, prior 16.8%)

ForexLive Americas wrap: Dollar rises like a phoenix from the flames Posted: 07 Jun 2013 01:44 PM PDT Forex trading headlines 7 June 2013 Greenspan worries about earnings US Non-farm payrolls come in 175k vs 170k exp, unemployment rate rises to 7.6% from 7.% but so does participation rate, 63.4% to 63.4%.  ForexLive reader Anjaney scoops the payrolls prize Canadian employment +95k vs 15k exp White house economist sees signs of a recovery US ECRI index 130.9 vs 130.7 prior Cyprus eases capital controls ECB’s Coene sees a base for recovery Fed mouth piece Hilsenrath still sees tapering later this year Italian finance minister thinks the euro is too high for exported G20 unlikely to set debt targets at summit Plosser bangs the same old drum on QE EU nations should bear the burden of full bank aid by 2015 US April consumer credit at $11.1bn vs $12.0bn prior BOC spokesman Harrison dumps Canada for the UK CFTC figures show traders go long 10 year treasuries All eyes were on the payrolls figure and they didn’t disappoint for volatility. The numbers themselves weren’t great but they weren’t disastrous. USD/JPY was itching for a bumper boost to the figures and was initially disappointed dropping from the release spike of 96.38 to 94.99. We then turned around sharpish as the market deduced that the US wasn’t going to cease to exist over the weekend. The bounce was very impressive and posted 200 pips in an hour. We managed a high of 97.78 before consolidating at the 97.50 with the pair well bid into the close. More and more it looks like yesterday’s crap out was a one off but attention now turns to the BOJ meeting in Asia next week. GBP and EUR yen pairs finish up nearly 400 and 300 pips up from the lows GBP/USD managed a 100 pip fall from 1.5600 on the data then slid further to 1.5489 before recovering to 1.5550/60 where we close. We remained pretty stagnant while the dollar recovered against the yen Virtually the same for the euro which dropped from 1.3285 to 1.3192 before seeing out the week at 1.3220. The long trodden 400 pip range looks to be broken but we’ll need to see further gains above 1.32 to confirm. AUD/USD did almost 150 pips door to door between 0.9570 to 0.9426 but has split the difference to finish at 0.9500. Lest we not forget there is Chinese data out over the weekend which Eamonn has kindly previewed here. Once again thank you very much for coming to ForexLive and helping us make the site what it is today. Have a cracking weekend all.

US stock close 7 June:Stocks ignore Forex panic Posted: 07 Jun 2013 01:09 PM PDT S&P +20.53 pts to 1643.09 +1.27% Dow +206.69 pts to 15247.31 +1.37% Nasdaq +44.26 pts to 3468.31 +1.29% A nice run up into the close leaves things looking positive for next week. US 10 yields go out on the highs also at 2.17% +10 bps

CFTC: Euro shorts trimmed Posted: 07 Jun 2013 12:46 PM PDT Weekly Futures market speculative positioning data from the CFTC as of the close on Tuesday 4 June EUR net short 57k vs short 85k JPY net short 83k vs short 95K prior GBP net short 78K vs short 75K prior CAD net short 40K vs short 33K prior NZD net long 6K vs long 14K prior CHF net short 25K vs short 29K prior Dollar Index net long 43K vs 46K prior EUR shorts dropping is no surprise given the dollar moves. And yen shorts have come off the boil slightly. I want to see next weeks report to see what damage has been really done to the yen. Perhaps the bigger headline is that traders have turned net buyers of treasuries. There’s now 20k long compared to 36k short last week. Gold longs increased to 61k from 57k

Speaking of sinking ships Posted: 07 Jun 2013 12:25 PM PDT I happened upon this the other day. From the Beeb Vertical ship marks 50 years at sea. Reminds me of the dollar the last two days. That went over but didn’t sink. You wouldn’t want to be caught in trap 3 when the buzzer goes on that though.

BOC’s Harrison jumps from the sinking ship Posted: 07 Jun 2013 12:12 PM PDT BOC spokesman Jeremy Harrison has bailed on the BOC to join new incoming Bank of England governor Mark Carney. He put in an email to the BOC informing them that he will coming over for a two years stint in the BOE’s communications department. Probably needs to help MC bone up on speaking the Queens English rather than that other Americanised (that’s ‘ised not ‘ized) rubbish.

April US Consumer credit $11.1bn vs $12.00bn exp Posted: 07 Jun 2013 12:00 PM PDT Prior $7.97bn. Revised to $8.40bn Revolving credit (credit cards etc) +$682.3m vs -$906.4m in March Non revolving credit (car, student loans) $10.4bn vs $9.3bn in March The increase in revolving credit can point to loosening of consumers purse strings as it can be said that consumers feel more comfortable borrowing to spend.

EU expects nations to bear full bank aid burden before 2015 Posted: 07 Jun 2013 11:46 AM PDT Looking at you France and Germany. Countries must shoulder responsibility for ailing banks Sees ESM having €210bn or more for lending Direct ESM aid to be used only when state finances at risk EU resolution fund needed to minimize taxpayer bail outs Sees ESM direct bank aid capacity limited to €60bn These details are from a EC draft report on banking union

Fed’s Plosser reckons jobs report shows the sequester is doing less damage than feared Posted: 07 Jun 2013 11:10 AM PDT Notes that job growth is moderate Comfortable with recent market reaction to growing talk of slowing QE Higher treasury yields not a bad thing FOMC minutes show growing talk among policy makers of slowing bond buys but unclear when that might happen Fed digging deeper hole  and risking credibility by not reducing QE now Not yet reached consensus of initial size of QE taper Fed first needs to decide to taper, then pick increment, then choose assets June meeting to early to adjust longer term exit strategy for reducing balance sheet. I’m guessing Mr Plosser wants out of QE then. Comments coming out on Reuters.

Nikkei futures have been Thunderstruck Posted: 07 Jun 2013 11:04 AM PDT Up 620 pts to 13300. Anyone care? I better put some prices up or Adam will have my knackers on Monday USD/JPY consolidating around 97.50. EUR/USD falling asleep at 13220 GBP/USD snoozing at 1.5542 US stocks are just of the highs and looking like closing out the week in the green. I bet the equity mob we’re all laughing at us FX guys running around screaming in fits of panic yesterday. Out to Dan

Funky Friday it is Posted: 07 Jun 2013 10:20 AM PDT Out to Matt K

Russian deputy finance minister: G20 unlikely to set debt targets at summit Posted: 07 Jun 2013 10:05 AM PDT Finance ministers likely to focus on spillover effects in July Hottest issue was weighing the creation of tax information exchange Russia is hosting the “G” meetings. The main “Leaders” meeting isn’t until September. Apparently there was a finance minister and central bank governors deputies meeting today. It looks like there’s one each month. Here’s the full program to put in your calendars.

Time for some tuuuuuuunes Posted: 07 Jun 2013 09:59 AM PDT I’ll take a couple of requests if you’ve got any. I’ve given away half of Adams stock of t-shirts so we might as well turn this place into a mini jukebox. Me and my mob are off to the Stone Roses concert in London’s Finsbury park tomorrow. One of my mates who works in one of the big banks, in Chicago is a massive Stones nut and will be sooo jealous that he won’t be there tomorrow. I’ll make sure I annoy him with loads of texts and phone calls during it though. Out to you Rusty.

Italy’s finance minister Saccomanni says risk of euro break up has diminished Posted: 07 Jun 2013 09:25 AM PDT Says euro may be too strong for regions exporters Cheap money risks causing global bubble Sorry he’s a former Bank of Italy man.

Hilsenrath still sees fed tapering later this year Posted: 07 Jun 2013 09:07 AM PDT Speaking in the WSJ Federal Reserve officials are likely to signal at their June policy meeting that they’re on track to begin pulling back their $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program later this year, as long as the economy doesn’t disappoint. Link here. Article is gated as usual but a search may prove fruituful.

USD/JPY kicks some butt on the European close Posted: 07 Jun 2013 09:02 AM PDT What’s an 80 pip swoon these days? Off the highs from 97.78 to trade 96.93. Looks like we got some profit taking from the European spec longs heading into the weekend. We’ve already bounced back to 97.25. We may see more of the same as the US close approaches. If we close out the week up near 98.00 then I reckon we get another push up into the BOJ meeting early next week.

FTSE price winner is Marvin Posted: 07 Jun 2013 08:57 AM PDT Guessed 6412.32 from a close of 6411.99 Well done. Email me your details to info (at) forexlive (dot) com Well played everyone.

European stock close 7 June: Equities laugh at currencies hissy fit Posted: 07 Jun 2013 08:35 AM PDT FSTE +1.2% Dax +2% Cac +1.6% Ibex +1.1% FTSE MIB +1.0% Bonds Italy 4.19% -17 bp Spain 4.54% -15 bp Germany 1.54% +2 bp

ECB’s Coene sees a stable, more solid base for economic recovery Posted: 07 Jun 2013 08:23 AM PDT Says governments should carry out growth friendly reforms Single bank supervisor needs implementation European banking union needs implementation We know it bloody well needs implementing so get it done then!!

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