Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Barclays Capital see UK GDP on the up
Dollar on the march
EUR/USD technical analysis 15 July
EURJPY orders
AUDUSD orders
USDJPY orders
EURGBP orders
GBPUSD orders
Swiss PPI june: m/m +0.1% as exp
EURUSD orders
Shanghai Comp Index closes up 0.98% at 2059.33
European equities open mostly higher
Cable extends losses as Europe grabs the greenback
Sovereign sellers seen on Cable
Eurostoxx futures up 0.5%
AUDUSD underpinned but faces sell interest still
Emerging markets in Africa now in focus
Spain’s Rajoy faces renewed calls to resign over secret payments scandal
Data coming up today
Option expiries 10am NY cut

Barclays Capital see UK GDP on the up

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 01:56 AM PDT

Revises forecast for Q2 GDP to 0.6% from 0.4% citing the improving May construction data
Still keeps 2013 forecast at 1.1%
See’s tomorrows inflation data rising to 3.1% y/y from 2.7% prior
Sees FOMC tapering in September but doesn’t see it as a signal for rate hikes sooner rather than later.
Uncertanty in Fed likely to remain high
Raises Japans GDP forecast to 2.3% from 2.1% in response to economic data and are looking for Q2 real GDP of 4.7% saar up from 3.3% previously

Dollar on the march

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 01:45 AM PDT

Taking a little jump in USD/JPY to 99.84 from 99.50

EUR/USD slumps to 1.3028 from 1.3055 and GBP/USD continues to crumble from 1.51, falling from 1.5075 to 1.5042.

USD/CHF pops to 0.9514 dragging EUR/CHF up with it to 1.2395.

EUR/USD technical analysis 15 July

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 01:35 AM PDT

Good morning ladies and gents. Hope you all had a great weekend.

What a damp squib Chinese data turned out to be. I thought I’d get up for it as it can be a good opportunity to get in at a decent level ahead of Europe. I think there’s some mild feeling of relief in the market that the figure was a bad miss but we’ll have to wait and see whether the slowdown fears have been totaly put to one side.

It’s a new week so let’s have a look what EUR/USd has for us today.

The euro has been pretty resilient since the big jump up from 1.2750 and that could have confirmed a strong double bottom at the level.

The fact remains though, that we are still back in the 1.2750-1.3200 range that we’ve seen for the last 5 odd months. Breakouts have been fleeting and quickly reversed on the upside.

The intraday range has been tight, around 130 pips and so the tech has played a part in defining the boundaries.

There’s a lot of levels building up both above and below the current price that should keep us contained if we start to wind down for summer trading.

Here are the levels to watch.

Resistance

1.3212 res
1.3157 res
1.3111 res
1.3100 200 H4ma
1.3081 100 wma
1.3071 200 dma

Current price 1.3055

Support

1.3027 100 dma
1.3010 sup
1.3006 100 H4ma
1.2954 sup
1.2941/43 55 wma & 55 H4ma
1.2910 sup
1.2812 strong sup

Short term, the safe play is the 1.2750-1.3200 edges but if we do get another move down towards 1.2750 in the next couple of days beware of a potential break. I personally don’t like a quick revisit of a big holding level as that implies increased pressure in that direction.

EURJPY orders

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 01:27 AM PDT

Currently 130.10

Sellers 130.35,130.50,1.3080,131.00,131.50

Buyers 129.90,129.65,129.45,129.00,128.80,128.50

AUDUSD orders

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 01:24 AM PDT

Currently 0.9107 having already failed at good sell interest between 0.9120-30

Sellers 0.9120,0.9130,0.9150,0.9160,0.9170,0.9185,0.9200

Buyers 0.9085,0.9050,0.9025,0.9000,0.8990,0.8980,0.8950

USDJPY orders

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 01:20 AM PDT

Currently 99.60

Sellers 99.70,99.85,99.90,100.00,100.20,100.30,100.40,100.50

Buyers 99.40,99.20,99.10,99.10,98.75,98.50,98.25,98.00

EURGBP orders

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 01:06 AM PDT

Currently on session highs of 0.8660 being pulled around by cable

Sellers 0.8665,0.8685,0.8690,0.8700,0.8720,0.8740,.0.8750

Buyers 0.8640,0.8625,0.8615,0.8600, 08575, 0.8550

GBPUSD orders

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 12:43 AM PDT

Currently 1.5092

Sellers 1.5115,1.5125,1.5140,1.5150,1.5185,1.5200,1.5225,1.5250

Buyers 1.5080,1.5070,1.5060,1.5050,1.5020,1.5000,1.4970,1.4950

Swiss PPI june: m/m +0.1% as exp

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 12:15 AM PDT

-0.3% prev
y/y +0.2% as exp -0.2% prev

EURUSD orders

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 12:10 AM PDT

Currently around its session lows at 1.3046

Sellers 1.3075,1.3085,1.3100,1.3125,1.3150,1.3175,1.3200

Buyers 1.3035,1.3010,1.3000,1.2985,1.2950,1.2925, 1.2900

Shanghai Comp Index closes up 0.98% at 2059.33

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 12:05 AM PDT

European equities open mostly higher

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 12:05 AM PDT

FTSE +0.1%
DAX +0.3%
CAC 40 +0.3%
IBEX -0.2%
FTMIB +0.4%

Cable extends losses as Europe grabs the greenback

Posted: 15 Jul 2013 12:02 AM PDT

Now down to 1.5084

EURUSD lower at 1.3048

AUDUSD back down to 0.9088 having failed to breach those first sell orders between 0.9120-30

USDCHF up to 0.9484

USDJPY 99.38

Sovereign sellers seen on Cable

Posted: 14 Jul 2013 11:21 PM PDT

I’m hearing of Asian sovereign sell interest earlier on GBPUSD above 1.5110

Currently 1.5101 having just posted 1.5098 lows

EURGBP being pushed up through 0.8650

Eurostoxx futures up 0.5%

Posted: 14 Jul 2013 11:10 PM PDT

DAX futures +0.4%
CAC 40 futures +0.3%

Bund futures up 2 at 143.66

AUDUSD underpinned but faces sell interest still

Posted: 14 Jul 2013 11:09 PM PDT

As Eamonn pointed out earlier there is good sell interest between 0.9120-30 and this has capped the rally for the moment at 0.9119.

More offers behind that at 0.9150 and all the way through to 0.9200.

Currently 0.9112

Emerging markets in Africa now in focus

Posted: 14 Jul 2013 11:03 PM PDT

As BRIC nations’s growth starts to slow, markets should be turning their attention to the emerging economies in Africa

So argues Roger Bootle MD of Capital Economics in The Telegraph

Spain’s Rajoy faces renewed calls to resign over secret payments scandal

Posted: 14 Jul 2013 10:46 PM PDT

The Spanish PM has been embroiled in this for a while now but faces news calls for his resignation after newspaper El Mundo published texts messages allegedly linking him to Luis Barcenas, the former treasurer of the governing Popular Party.

Barcenas is in custody facing trial on charges of corruption and fraud. He denies the allegations as does Mr Rajoy who has been accused of taking illicit payments.

The BBC carries the story here

Data coming up today

Posted: 14 Jul 2013 09:42 PM PDT

Good day one and all

I trust everyone had a good week-end

I won’t gloat over the cricket result. Just glad we made it through in the end as I said in my post ( which may have got lost under the barrage of China headlines !)

Not a lot of data out today of note until the US get in so let’s hope for something else to give us some opportunity

Have a good one

Times GMT