Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• Swiss ZEW investor sentiment july: +4.8 vs +2.2 prev
• BOE MPC Minutes in full
• Pound soars as MPC votes 9-0 to keep QE on hold
• May UK labour report claims -21.2k vs -8k exp
• BOE MPC minutes vote 9-0 for unchanged
• BOE minutes and labour report up in 5
• Nishimura: Too-sudden Fed taper could push money into yen
• ADB president: Chinese slowdown likely to weigh on southeast Asia economies
• Japan’s Nishimura: Yen was too high over past 5-10 years
• Technical levels 17 July
• AUDUSD also on the slide
• GBPUSD orders
• Shanghai Comp Index closes down 1.01% at 2044.92
• European equity markets open firmer
• Pound under pressure again as we await jobs data and MPC minutes
• EURUSD orders
• Eurostoxx 50 futures open flat
• Nikkei closes on session highs up 0.11% at 14,615.04
• AUDGBP and The Ashes connection
• Data coming up in this session

Swiss ZEW investor sentiment july: +4.8 vs +2.2 prev Posted: 17 Jul 2013 02:00 AM PDT

BOE MPC Minutes in full Posted: 17 Jul 2013 01:40 AM PDT Read all about it from the BOE website here

Pound soars as MPC votes 9-0 to keep QE on hold Posted: 17 Jul 2013 01:37 AM PDT Previously 6-3 in favour Carney was widely expected, by many traders at least, to be voting in favour of further easing and encouraging others to do so, so this is a game changer given the amount of pound selling over the past few days Would appear that they seem content with the implementation of forward guidance hence Miles and Fisher changing their voting position GBPUSD  up to 1.5247 before retreating to current levels of 1.5212 EURGBP down to 0.8634 . now 0.8650 I mentioned in earlier posts that it could be a case of sell rumour/assumption and buy fact, and boy did we get it.

May UK labour report claims -21.2k vs -8k exp Posted: 17 Jul 2013 01:31 AM PDT Prior -8.6k Unemployment rate 7.8% vs 7.8% exp. Prior 7.8% Big drop in claims twinned with unanimous vote to keep rates steady gives the pound an huge boost. Cable smashes 1.520 to 1.5238

BOE MPC minutes vote 9-0 for unchanged Posted: 17 Jul 2013 01:30 AM PDT BOE minutes highlights Any announcement  on implementation of thresholds and forward guidance will be made with August 7 inflation report not August MPC meeting Discussion will have important bearing on on MPC decision but no presumption there will be a change in policy Some members believe more stimulus warranted but not sensible this month as committee investigating other options MPC August response on merits of forward guidance would shed light on necessary scale and form of future stimulus Only some members believe asset purchases remain an effective tool UK economic developments generally positive and in line with May forecasts,. International demand more mixed Increase in bond yields was unwelcome tightening that could hamper UK growth Further signs seen over past month that recovery in train, but remains weak by historical standards Looks like Mr Carney is coming out all guns blazing and going gung-ho on forward guidance. Interesting to note that some members are starting to turn away from QE. We could get a preview of how the Fed will act through actions from the BOE. Certainly there will be great focus on the August MPC and inflation meetings next month. The talk could dampen down long term rate rise talk and we should see yields along the curve fall.

BOE minutes and labour report up in 5 Posted: 17 Jul 2013 01:27 AM PDT Expectations are for a 9-0 vote on keeping rates unchanged. Will be interesting having been Carney’s first MPC meeting. Labour expectations are for an 8-9k drop in claims and an unemployment rate of 7.8%

Nishimura: Too-sudden Fed taper could push money into yen Posted: 17 Jul 2013 01:16 AM PDT

ADB president: Chinese slowdown likely to weigh on southeast Asia economies Posted: 17 Jul 2013 01:15 AM PDT Takehiko Nakao is president of the Asian development bank. Chinese exports making clear slowdown, may not sustain momentum seen in past Doesn’t see sharp downturn in region’s growth due to China slowdown Risks remain on whether China can smoothly proceed with reforms of FX and financial systems Fed policy expectations not having big impact on Asia for now, CB’s are vigilant to potential effect

Japan’s Nishimura: Yen was too high over past 5-10 years Posted: 17 Jul 2013 01:07 AM PDT Japan understands BOJ easing is time buying policy Now is the last chance for Japan to rise again FX level not a target but a result of Japan’s policies Wants economic dialogue with China soonest To pursue fiscal discipline to prevent yields rise Comments out a little earlier via BBG Also just hitting the wires statement from BOJ BOJ to discuss money market operations with participants on July 24 This is more likely the reason for the pop in USD/JPY than Nishimura’s comments. The market was pushing for the BOJ to lengthen their asset purchases and this may be part of the dialogue. USD/JPY popped from 99.40 to 99.83.

Technical levels 17 July Posted: 17 Jul 2013 12:54 AM PDT Morning all Here are the tech levels so far.

AUDUSD also on the slide Posted: 17 Jul 2013 12:15 AM PDT We’ve been grinding back down from 0.9250 this morning as slowly as we chewed up through the offers yesterday The pair has just gone back below the pivotal support around 0.9200 to post 0.9192 lows as a generally USD-positive market prevails Currently 0.9195. More demand seen at 0.9180-0.9160 AUDJPY lower at 91.58 even with USDJPY heading north at 99.62

GBPUSD orders Posted: 17 Jul 2013 12:07 AM PDT Currently 1.5091 just off 1.5085 session lows Sellers 1.5120,1.5140,1.5150,1.5170,1.5190 1.5200,1.5225 ( stop loss buying if breached ), 1.5250,1.5260 Buyers 1.5080,1.506,1.5045,1.5030,1.5020,1.5000 1.4985,1.4950

Shanghai Comp Index closes down 1.01% at 2044.92 Posted: 17 Jul 2013 12:03 AM PDT

European equity markets open firmer Posted: 17 Jul 2013 12:02 AM PDT FTSE +0.1% DAX +0.2% CAC 40 +0.3% IBEX +0.2% FTMIB +0.3%

Pound under pressure again as we await jobs data and MPC minutes Posted: 17 Jul 2013 12:00 AM PDT It’s the big risk event for the pound this morning and both arrive at 08.30 GMT The assumption for the MPC minutes is that Carney will be seen to be in favour of further easing and will be trying to persuade his colleagues to back him. The voting therefore will be a crucial part of the release but we can’t ignore the rhetoric. This will enable us ( hopefully ) to see how they came to arrive at the “forward guidance” statement that stamped Mr C’s authority upon arrival in his new post. The market has therefore been selling the pound and continues to do so this morning as we edge towards the release. “Sell rumour/assumption and buy fact” could well be the outcome here depending on the market’s appetite and, of course, just how revelatory the minutes are. GBPUSD currently down to 1.5090 pushing EURGBP up through 0.8700 again, with the pound generally lower overall. Cable orders to follow.

EURUSD orders Posted: 16 Jul 2013 11:32 PM PDT Currently going nowhere fast at 1.3138 Sellers 1.3165,1.3170,1.3180,1.3190,1.3210,1.3225,1.3250,1.3260 Buyers 1.3100,1.3080,1.3050,1.3020,1.3000,1.2990,1.2980,1.2950

Eurostoxx 50 futures open flat Posted: 16 Jul 2013 11:20 PM PDT DAX futures flat CAC 40 futures +0.1% Bund futures up 12 at 143.81

Nikkei closes on session highs up 0.11% at 14,615.04 Posted: 16 Jul 2013 11:05 PM PDT +15.92 low 14,460.56 USDJPY 99.38

AUDGBP and The Ashes connection Posted: 16 Jul 2013 10:14 PM PDT Thank-you to Eamonn for finding this for me courtesy of ANZ Just a bit of fun in a desperate attempt to link the two events!

Data coming up in this session Posted: 16 Jul 2013 09:35 PM PDT Good day everyone Seems like a real sleeper huh? Let’s hope the UK jobs data and MPC minutes provide some action before US housing data, and then the main event with Mr B at 14.00 GMT I shall be at Lords tomorrow for the second Test, and for duration, so this will be my last session til that’s finished Let’s hope it’s a good ‘un and we can make/save you some money Good luck one and all Times GMT

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