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• BOE says business lending stock contracted in quarter to May
• June UK retail sales 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m
• UK retail sales up next at 8.30 gmt
• Assmussen: Euroe area is not a closed shop
• May EZ current account (sa) €19.6bn vs €19.5bn prior
• Asmussen: Jobs should be at centre of policy making
• EU’s Olli Rehn: Troika is essential to handling eurozone problems
• IMF’s Lagarde: Lithuania has made staggering effort
• More stops go in AUD/USD
• ECB’s Asmussen says crisis is not being caused by the euro
• Roll out the red carpet, Kuroda’s heading to Moscow
• European stock open 18 July
• GBP/JPY looking to confirm a break out
• Economic data for the European session
• Nikkei closes up 1.32% at 14808.50
• June Swiss trade balance CHF 2.73bn vs CHF 2.22bn prior
• Technical levels 18 July
• June Japan nationwide dept store sales 7.2% vs 2.6% prior y/y
• Germany’s SAP AG cuts 2013 outlook on China worries
• Nikkei continues higher up 1% to 14762

BOE says business lending stock contracted in quarter to May Posted: 18 Jul 2013 01:51 AM PDT Publishing it’s quarterly trends in lending report UK mortgage approvals rose in three months to May Just briefly looking at the report, it still paints a picture of  poor credit movement. Larger businesses have greater access to funding sources compared to SME’s. It was also noted that SME’s are slowly turning to other sources of lending such as venture capital and crowd funding. There is a constant underlying issue about whether the government and BOE increased liquidity is filtering through enough to the real economy, but I’m also starting to think that maybe businesses (especially SME’s) are just being more cautious about borrowing. If that is so, and they can do well under those conditions, then that will be major strength in boosting the UK economy. While credit is good for an economy, businesses doing well without it is even better.

June UK retail sales 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m Posted: 18 Jul 2013 01:30 AM PDT Prior 2.1% 2.2% vs 1.7% exp y/y. Prior 1.9%. Revised to 2.1% Ex fuel 0.2% vs 0.2% exp m/m. Prior 2.1%. Ex fuel 2.1% vs 1.6% exp y/y. Prior 2.1%. Revised to 2.3%   Retail sales hold their strength and see decent upward revisions. Cable pops to 1.5203. EUR/GBP falls from 0.8640 to 0.8623 ONS says retail sector to add 0.1 percentage points to Q2 GDP growth.

UK retail sales up next at 8.30 gmt Posted: 18 Jul 2013 01:19 AM PDT The Littlestone economic tell-tale survey price and reasoning trading yield data (Acronym’d to LETS PARTY) points to further gains in the retail data. Business has been holding strong at my wife’s central London restaurant and my cabbie mate has never been busier. Business has also picked up in the hotel game says my doorman friend at one of London’s exclusive gaffs. Good weather has also kicked in though only in the latter part of last month. We had a big jump last month from expectations and the market is expecting a small rise of 0.2% from last month. Obviously my analysis is only a small portion of the country as a whole but such on the ground observations have done me well in the past. Retail sales are quite often a volatile figure anyway.

Assmussen: Euroe area is not a closed shop Posted: 18 Jul 2013 01:04 AM PDT Fiscal policies must fit needs of currency union Monetary policy expansion as long as needed and will stay like that We have a range of non standard measures Central bank has important task but limited risk Nothing we can do if fiscal policies curb lending or if governments unable to act Lagarde Monetary policy cannot be substitute for reforms ECB has room to maneuver if needed Sound fiscal policies are needed Fiscal consolidation is necessary Some countries are doing enough on fiscal policies, a few are doing a little too much.

May EZ current account (sa) €19.6bn vs €19.5bn prior Posted: 18 Jul 2013 01:00 AM PDT Prior revised to €23.8bn Non- seasonally adjusted €9.5bn vs €15.3bn prior. Revised to €16.6bn Net investment flow €30.1bn vs €-9.3bn prior. Revised to €-5.3bn

Asmussen: Jobs should be at centre of policy making Posted: 18 Jul 2013 12:48 AM PDT Austerity vs growth debate is wrong debate Fiscal consolidation will remain on agenda Sound fiscal policies are needed Cannot leave young generation with debt and no jobs More Lagarde Social dimension of European project is part of mix If you look at US, welfare system will be big drag Social compact in Europe won’t go away

EU’s Olli Rehn: Troika is essential to handling eurozone problems Posted: 18 Jul 2013 12:46 AM PDT And they’ve had their hands full haven’t they? Combined expertise of all three troika members remains important in EU crisis response

IMF’s Lagarde: Lithuania has made staggering effort Posted: 18 Jul 2013 12:35 AM PDT Joining Asmussen at the panel discussion in Vilnius. Lithuania can set standards for other countries Jobs are key question for politicians and more needs to be doen Job -orientated policies should be considered German-style apprenticeships should be considered Euro job policies should have multiple arrows

More stops go in AUD/USD Posted: 18 Jul 2013 12:33 AM PDT The poor old Aussie is taking another kick-in after it clawed itself up from 0.9000. Stops done at around 0.9150 to a low of 0.9138. It shows the strength of the selling trend in the pair as longs are keeping tight stops on their positions. Update: Hearing corporate bids are mopping up the latest fall.

ECB’s Asmussen says crisis is not being caused by the euro Posted: 18 Jul 2013 12:22 AM PDT Crisis is one of business practices Confidence in euro banking sector a problem SSM will help increase transparency EU proposal for SRM goes in right direction Banking union is our key priority Speaking in Vilnius, Lithuania

Roll out the red carpet, Kuroda’s heading to Moscow Posted: 18 Jul 2013 12:12 AM PDT The BOJ main man is rocking up to the G20 finance ministers meetings running today through the weekend. Could add some spice to the statements that will come at their conclusions. Let’s hope he garners a bit more interest than his last meeting.

European stock open 18 July Posted: 18 Jul 2013 12:07 AM PDT Early trading has the; FTSE -0.1% Dax -0.4% Cac -0.3% Ibex -0.4% FTSE MIB -0.3% European bonds Italy 4.49% flat Spain 4.74% +1 bp Portugal 7.19% -2bp Germany 1.53% flat

GBP/JPY looking to confirm a break out Posted: 17 Jul 2013 11:59 PM PDT Yesterdays big run up on the MPC minutes and Labour data saw the pair peep above the short term trendline from May, but fail to get a foothold above. We’re through it again today and within touching distance of the 55 dma at 152.17. Below the 100 dma is marking decent support for the pair. A break higher will target the July highs at 152.89/00, then it’s on to 154.00 Even though we have Bernanke round 2 today, it’s going to be more of the same Q&A so tape bombs are likely to be scarce and it will be a slip rather than something new said that will spook the market. So the focus will be on the upper house elections over the weekend.  If Abe is successful then we are likely to see the highs at 156.75 tested. I wanted to start building a long position in USD/JPY ahead of the elections but hesitated when we fell through 99.00. I got suckered into the pre-Bernanke excitement and didn’t pull the trigger. I’m loathed to jump in at the top so will hope for a pull back to get in on or look to any decent falls in the yen crosses to get my election trade on. A poor UK retail sales read could be just the ticket to get a decent long level in GBP/JPY both on an intraday and election trade. Resistance 154.49 res 154.21 strong res 153.26 res 152.90 strong res 152.35 res 152.17 55 dma Current price 152.06 Support 151.38 sup 150.72/77 200 & 100 H4ma’s 150.39 55 H4ma 150.20 149.59 100 dma

Economic data for the European session Posted: 17 Jul 2013 11:16 PM PDT Only items of note are the EZ current account and UK retail sales.

Nikkei closes up 1.32% at 14808.50 Posted: 17 Jul 2013 11:11 PM PDT +193 pts. and another high for the stealth bull market.

June Swiss trade balance CHF 2.73bn vs CHF 2.22bn prior Posted: 17 Jul 2013 11:00 PM PDT Prior revised to 2.12bn Exports (real, SA) 2.3% from 0.4% prior m/m. Revised to 0.4% Imports (real, SA) -3.2% from +0.9% prior m/m. Revised to 2.6% Big swings in the release but also in the revisions so a wild swinging figure overall. CHF taking no notice at all.

Technical levels 18 July Posted: 17 Jul 2013 10:54 PM PDT Nice and early for you today. It’s nice to have a quiet moment to get them out.

June Japan nationwide dept store sales 7.2% vs 2.6% prior y/y Posted: 17 Jul 2013 10:31 PM PDT Tokyo sales 9.4% vs 5.1% prior y/y Stronger sales in Japan and the Nikkei moves up to 14823 +208 pts or 1.42% USD/JPY remains bid up at 100.13

Germany’s SAP AG cuts 2013 outlook on China worries Posted: 17 Jul 2013 10:13 PM PDT The multinational business software company reported lower Q2 revenues and pointed to a slowing Chinese growth for firms in Japan, Australia and New Zealand being hesitant to invest. Not a major market news story for currencies but just another sign of the worries over China affecting business sentiment.

Nikkei continues higher up 1% to 14762 Posted: 17 Jul 2013 09:33 PM PDT +147 points on the day

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