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• Merkel: September election will be very close
• June UK PSNB £10.234bn vs £9.45bn exp m/m
• Spanish Q2 house prices -2.4% from Q1
• Greek current account balance +€0.036bn from -€1.228bn y/y
• Angela Merkel says progress being made in crisis-hit countries
• May Italian industrial orders (sa) 3.2% vs 0.6% prior m/m
• Yen selling seen after Nikkei drop
• Moscovici sees over reaction to Bernake comments on stimulus
• Doubtful Japan Life insurers will increase foreign bond holdings by very much
• Look to the stars for the next big move in gold
• European stock open 19 July
• Nikkei closes down 1.48% to 14589.91
• June German PPI 0.0% vs 0.0% exp m/m
• May Japan final leading index 110.7 vs 110.5 prior
• Technical levels 19 July
• Economic data for today 19 July
• May Japan all industry activity index 1.1% vs 1.2% exp m/m
• Option levels for the 10am NY cut 19 July
• ForexLive Asia Wrap: Nikkei cops a thrashing ahead of Japanese election this weekend
• Chairman of Japan Iron & Steel Federation says Abenomics will spur steel demand in the second half of the year

Merkel: September election will be very close Posted: 19 Jul 2013 02:02 AM PDT Wants coalition re-run Doesn’t envisage a haircut for Greece

June UK PSNB £10.234bn vs £9.45bn exp m/m Posted: 19 Jul 2013 01:30 AM PDT Prior £10.54bn. Revised to £12.770bn PSNB ex-financials £8.47 bn vs £8.00bn exp m/m. Prior £8.772bn. Revised to £11.007bn PSNCR £ 3.097bn vs £3.07bn prior. Revised to £2.986bn 2012/2013 Budget deficit revised lower to £116.4bn (£2.1bn lower than 2011/2012) Public sector net debt (ex-fin) at  £1,202.8 billion at the end of June 2013, equivalent to 74.9% of gross domestic product.

Spanish Q2 house prices -2.4% from Q1 Posted: 19 Jul 2013 01:16 AM PDT Update: Corrected from -2.5% Q2 prices fall 7.6% from a year ago. Still lots of pain seen in the housing market. While I was over there I took a look at a few estate agents. There are some ridiculously low prices for Spanish apartments. Villas are holding better value but there are still some great bargains to be had if you’re not buying from an investment perspective.

Greek current account balance +€0.036bn from -€1.228bn y/y Posted: 19 Jul 2013 01:12 AM PDT Tourism receipts up to €1.054bn from €0.761bn y/y

Angela Merkel says progress being made in crisis-hit countries Posted: 19 Jul 2013 01:07 AM PDT Speaking to reporters at her summer press conference Stabilising euro will occupy Europe for years Over coming debt crisis remains a task  Germany strong, economic picture good, 2014 budget will show a small plus  Greece set for primary surplus at end of 2013

May Italian industrial orders (sa) 3.2% vs 0.6% prior m/m Posted: 19 Jul 2013 01:00 AM PDT y/y (nsa) -1.1% vs -1.60% prior Industrial sales (sa) 0.1% from 0.6% prior m/m y/y sales (nsa) -5.1% from -7.2% prior

Yen selling seen after Nikkei drop Posted: 19 Jul 2013 12:52 AM PDT USD/JPY just tacked on 30 odd pips to 100.35. GBP/JPY takes a run up to 152.90 from 152.45 as cable pushes up towards 1.5250 again. EUR/JPY to 131.75 from 131.45. USD/CHF and AUD/USD steady at 0.9425 and 0.9170 respectively so this is just a yen trade with a little sprinkle of sterling chucked in.

Moscovici sees over reaction to Bernake comments on stimulus Posted: 19 Jul 2013 12:36 AM PDT Can understand Bernanke on exit strategy Unconventional tools needed to address crisis G20 seeks more transparency on taxes Sees breakthrough on tax evasion in coming years Tax evasion fix will take some time Not concerned about emerging market slowdown, but growth still strong Growth returning to French economy Investment key to French economic revival France needs to cut less useful spending Wants to stabilise tax pressure for companies There’s the problem, the time it takes the bozos to get a plan in place for tax evasion the companies will have a million and one other ways to dodge it. Governments and revenue collectors have always been light years behind the curve and will remain so. French finance minister on BBG tv in Moscow

Doubtful Japan Life insurers will increase foreign bond holdings by very much Posted: 19 Jul 2013 12:35 AM PDT So says the head of the Japanese life insurance lobby. Another one of Japan’s massive money movers that are still slumbering. If and when these guys really start moving their money about we’ll know about it.

Look to the stars for the next big move in gold Posted: 19 Jul 2013 12:12 AM PDT According to scientists the origin of gold is found in neutron star bursts. They were lucky enough to potentially spot one in June that could produce around 100 trillion oil tankers of gold. They’ve just got to wait a few billion years for it to form and then it’s a quick 3.9 billion light years trip across the universe to pick it up. I’m going to beat them to the jump with my baked bean tin rocket that I’m working on. Full story from the Japan Times here. Back on planet earth, gold hasn’t given up hopes to break the $1300 level. We fell from $1300 on Bernanke Wednesday and  found buyers in wait at $1270. We’ve been doing this stepping down formation since late last year. Every fall has consolidated for a while before falling again. July has been the only time where the consolidation is higher than the previous drop, but given it was after a huge move that should be expected.   $1300 is still the magic number and worth selling against with a fairly tight stop. The 200 H4 ma is slowly moving down which should add weight to capping the move and giving a decent place for a stop just above on a break.

European stock open 19 July Posted: 19 Jul 2013 12:09 AM PDT FTSE -0.1% Dax -0.4% Cac -0.4% Ibex -0.3% FTSE MIB -0.4% European bonds Italy 4.37% -4 bps Spain 4.63% - 2 bps Portugal 7.01% -1 bps Germany 1.52% flat

Nikkei closes down 1.48% to 14589.91 Posted: 18 Jul 2013 11:10 PM PDT -218.59 points. First loss in six sessions   Japanese JGB’s 0.80% flat on the day

June German PPI 0.0% vs 0.0% exp m/m Posted: 18 Jul 2013 11:00 PM PDT Prior -0.3% 0.6% vs 0.6% exp y/y. Prior 0.2%

May Japan final leading index 110.7 vs 110.5 prior Posted: 18 Jul 2013 10:48 PM PDT Coincident index 106.0 vs 105.9 prior The Japan new composite index of business cycle indicators leading index continues to rise.

Technical levels 19 July Posted: 18 Jul 2013 10:41 PM PDT Nice and early again. Here are the levels today.

Economic data for today 19 July Posted: 18 Jul 2013 10:06 PM PDT Pretty light on the data today. After the European data it Canadian CPI only for the US session. What a throbber that will be.

May Japan all industry activity index 1.1% vs 1.2% exp m/m Posted: 18 Jul 2013 09:32 PM PDT Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.1%

Option levels for the 10am NY cut 19 July Posted: 18 Jul 2013 09:27 PM PDT Good morning everyone. Looks like Eamon finally got some volatility in his session. I think he needs a lay down now. Here are the option levels at play today. GBP/USD 1.5000 1.5100 1.5250, 1.5260 1.5300 EUR/USD 1.3000, 1.3050 1.3100, 1.3160 1.3200 1.3300 USD/JPY 99.00, 99.50 100.50 101.50 EUR/GBP 0.8610 AUD/USD 0.9235 USD/CAD 1.0400 1.0500 AUD/USD 0.9130 0.9200, 0.9235 0.9305 NZD/USD 0.7910

ForexLive Asia Wrap: Nikkei cops a thrashing ahead of Japanese election this weekend Posted: 18 Jul 2013 08:50 PM PDT The forex trading headlines for Asia trading today, Friday July 19 It was a very eventful closing period in the North American timezone: MSFT missed estimates GOOG missed estimates Moody's upgraded their outlook on the US Detroit filed for bankruptcy More on Detroit: Detroit bankruptcy – the contagion question More from Reuters, Limbo for residents Japan International transactions in securities, for the week ended July 12: Japan buying foreign bonds: Y 1105.7Bn (prior week: Y 973.9bn from Y 973.1bn). Second week of Japan net buying of foreign bonds Japan Buying Foreign Stocks: Y -88.2Bn (prior week: Y-14.1B) Foreign Buying Japan Bond: Y 0.8Bn (prior week: Y +3.5B) Foreign Buying Japan Stocks: Y 398.2Bn (prior week:  Y 486.9b from Y +486.9B) Japan PM adviser Hamada: Japan needs to raise sales tax in medium, longer term, but he remains cautious about raising sales tax Unnamed sources said China may announce home appliance subsidies in Q4: China Securities Journal China banks face severe risks: CBRC official quoted in China Securities Journal Reminder: Japan upper house election this weekend – what to watch for Most of the currency action today was yen. The Nikkei stock index sold off heavily in the morning. Selling was initiated by macro fund names ahead of the political risk over the weekend, USD/JPY and the Nikkei have both had good topside runs recently, so some sort of profit taking was not surprising. the extent of the fall in the Nikkei was certainly an eye-raiser, though. USD/JPY initially fell 50+ points from 100.80/85 to 100.25/30, then found some support. It got hit hard again while the TSE was closed for its lunch break, down to 100.00. After lunch the nikkei started to head lower again and USD/JPY cracked 100. EUR/USD popped above 1.3110/15 resistance it had found during the US session, as high as 1.3145/50 before running into offers. GBP/USD had a weak early pasrt of the session but found some swagger to rally nearly 50 points as the USD weakened. NZd and AUD went along for the ride, both up around 40 points from session lows.

Chairman of Japan Iron & Steel Federation says Abenomics will spur steel demand in the second half of the year Posted: 18 Jul 2013 08:22 PM PDT Comment on Bloomberg from Hiroshi Tomono, Chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation

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