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EURGBP orders
EURJPY orders
ONS UK Q2 GDP breakdown
AUDUSD orders
Q2 UK preliminary GDP 0.6% vs 0.6% exp
UK GDP up next at 8.30gmt. GPB/USD technical analysis
ECB EU June monetary report
July Italian consumer confidence 97.3 vs 96.0 exp
German IFO business climate july: 106.2 vs 106.1 exp
June EZ M3 money supply 2.3% vs 3.0% exp y/y
Technical levels 25 July
UK Q2 GDP – how good is good ?
European equity markets open mixed
Shanghai Comp Index closes down 0.6% at 2021.17
Spanish Q2 unemployment: 26.3% vs 27.2% prev
USDJPY takes out 99.80 support
GBPUSD orders
EURUSD orders
Nikkei 225 closes down 1.14% at 14,562.93
Nikkei steady into the close

EURGBP orders

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:56 AM PDT

Currently 0.8605

Sellers 0.8625 0.8630 0.8645 0.8665 0.8680 0.8690 0.8700

Buyers 0.8580 ( stop loss selling if breached) 0.8565 0.8550 0.8525 0.8500

EURJPY orders

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:52 AM PDT

Currently 131.84

Sellers 132.25 132.50 132.60 132.75 133.00 133.20 133.50

Buyers 131.80 131.65 131.50 131.35 131.20 131.00 130.80 130.50

ONS UK Q2 GDP breakdown

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:49 AM PDT

ONS says that the economy remains 3.3% below the peak of Q1 2008

Q2 Services output 0.6% vs 0.5% Q1
Q2 Industrial output 0.6% vs 0.3% Q1
Q2 Construction output 0.9% vs -1.8% Q1

Q2 GDP breakdown

Production industries

Agriculture, hunting and forestry +1.1% vs -6.3% Q1
Mining, quarrying inc oil 1.5% vs 3.2% Q1
Manufacturing 0.4% vs -0.2% Q1
Water supply, sewage 2.8% vs -0.4% Q1

Service industries

Distribution, hotels, catering 1.5% vs 1.2% Q1
Transport, storage and communications 0.6% vs 1.4% Q1
Business services and finance 0.5% vs -0.1% Q1
Government and other services 0.1% vs 0.4% q1

The yearly growth rate is the strongest since Q1 2011

While the market may have been disappointed we should be looking the expectation and taking note that the UK economy is on the up. That is going to be positive for the pound and that strength could gain pace if the US economy doesn’t pick up speed. Certainly my thoughts that we will continue to steam ahead of Europe are still valid.

Let’s hope they don’t revise down the final read or I’ll be well shafted

AUDUSD orders

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:46 AM PDT

Currently 0.9147

Sellers 0.9175 0.9200 0.9210 0.9220 0.9240 0.9250 0.9265 0.9300

Buyers 0.9125 0.9110 0.9100 0.9085 0.9050 0.9035 0.9000

Q2 UK preliminary GDP 0.6% vs 0.6% exp

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:30 AM PDT

1.4% vs 1.4% exp y/y. Prior 0.3%

Mike called it. Cable dumps to 1.5312 as the market shows it got overexcited.

Now at 1.5332

UK GDP up next at 8.30gmt. GPB/USD technical analysis

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:24 AM PDT

You’ll note the levels on my levels post and I agree with Mike that the expectations may be slightly to the high side.

While I can see a good print based on the previous data I can’t honestly see it exceeding 0.6%. I’m more than happy to be proved wrong of course. While a print below 0.6% will see the pound sell off, as long as it’s not lower that 0.4% then it will be a good opportunity to dip buy as it still means the economy is going in the right direction.

The 61.6 fib from the Jun hi/lo is at 1.5392 and with 1.54 has been the cap on the pair. A break here could see us tack on a good cent to 1.5500. If we do then the next big levels are 1.5571 200 dma and the resistance line from the end of Dec through June at 1.5600.

ECB EU June monetary report

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:11 AM PDT

June annual growth loans to private sector -1.6% vs -1.1% exp
Private sector deposits at Cyprus banks fall 7.6% to €37.6bn in June
Spanish bank holdings of government bonds rise by €16.1bn in June
Italian holdings by €10.8bn
Portuguese holdings by €1.2bn

July Italian consumer confidence 97.3 vs 96.0 exp

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:03 AM PDT

95.7 prior. Revised to 95.8.

German IFO business climate july: 106.2 vs 106.1 exp

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:00 AM PDT

105.9 prev
current conditions 110.1 vs 109.7 exp 109.4 prev
expectations 102.4 vs 102.5 exp 102.5 prev
IFO says no revisions to june indices

In line with expectations but market had just geared for a better number

EURUSD 1.3216 from 1.3230

June EZ M3 money supply 2.3% vs 3.0% exp y/y

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 01:00 AM PDT

3 month average 2.8% vs 3.0% m/m. Prior 2.9%
June annual growth loans to private sector -1.6% vs -1.1% exp

Technical levels 25 July

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 12:56 AM PDT

Good morning everyone.

Good bit of data out today.

Here are the levels to note.

UK Q2 GDP – how good is good ?

Posted: 25 Jul 2013 12:53 AM PDT

Ok, so we all know by now that the market is expecting a good provisional figure today at 08.30 GMT as business activity rebounds after a weather affected Q1.

The big question though is how good is good and how much has been factored in?

The BOE’s own forecast was +0.5% vs +0.3% prev but we’ve had some analysts this week looking for +0.7-+0.8%

Cable has strong sell interest between 1.5390-1.5410 so we can expect that area to be tested from current levels ( 1.5355) if we get a number at the top end of the range.

Buy rumour/sell fact? Yep, I think so but if 1.5420-50 breaks then we may be in a period of further consolidation until we get a second reading.

For another take on the current scenario here’s a post I put up yesterday.